GFS continues to signal a potential large snow event in the far SE on Sunday. Now being picked up by the UKV.

Unfortunatelly ECM and other models keep the precipitation over the channel. GFS would give us good preciptation to the South of London. persoanlly I reckon it may just touch the very SE corner.

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The 00Z EC brings a wide band of heavy frontal snowfall into teh UK - Midlands favoured.
Not sure what run you are referring to but of course it does change a lot at the moment.

OT: Snowing in Edinburgh at the Zoo:
https://www.edinburghzoo.org.uk/webcams/penguin-cam/#penguincam 

Midnight run.

 

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The question I'm interested in isn't whether it snows or not, but whether the whole thing  collapses like a pack of cards during the second half of December. Given the extraordinary year we've had I wonder whether the winter could turn out to be one of the all time "cold classics"? Very unlikely but given the sudden switch from a very mild autumn who knows where things could go next?

GEFS seem keen to collapse the northern blocking and a fair few on the ECM ens as well. 
This spell could well be "it" for us this season before the Atlantic train returns. 
Hope I am wrong of course and perhaps we need a Strat warming event to help disrupt the jet

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Well at 1am it was already -6C in southern England (eg Benson) 

First frost here of the season. -2.1C. I believe RAF Benson is a frost hollow and held the record England low temperature for some time.

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Some GEFS seem keen to collapse the northern blocking but the mean stays cold for longer and a fair few on the ECM ens as well, but only in the last few runs.
This spell could well be "it" for us this season before the Atlantic train returns, but of course we never can tell as winter has only just started.
Hope I am wrong of course and perhaps we need a Strat warming event to help disrupt the jet

I've edited your post, but I am normally a glass half full sort of person 😉

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For what it's worth the snow row for London on the 00z ensembles has reached its highest so far at a 100. I know they don't mean a lot but I would stick my neck out and say it is a less "bone dry" outlook than when they were 25 a few days ago. 😀
Meanwhile surely it is all up in the air snow wise for the next 10 days? Some places already getting snow, BBC saying last night freezing fog at the weekend and elsewhere snow risk in the S.E Sunday night. I will be in Darren Land on Sheppey on Sunday, bird watching, so may be some interest.

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GEFS seem keen to collapse the northern blocking and a fair few on the ECM ens as well. 
This spell could well be "it" for us this season before the Atlantic train returns. 
Hope I am wrong of course and perhaps we need a Strat warming event to help disrupt the jet

Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

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GEFS seem keen to collapse the northern blocking and a fair few on the ECM ens as well. 
This spell could well be "it" for us this season before the Atlantic train returns. 
Hope I am wrong of course and perhaps we need a Strat warming event to help disrupt the jet

Looking at the 5 models that are available on wettercentrale up to 168hrs, you would have to agree there is a lot of interest in that timescale and there is a fair chance that this could continue at least a few days further as we move well into la la land.

GEFS seem keen to collapse the northern blocking and a fair few on the ECM ens as well. 
This spell could well be "it" for us this season before the Atlantic train returns. 
Hope I am wrong of course and perhaps we need a Strat warming event to help disrupt the jet

This could well be it for this season………..its December 8th😂 you’re good i’ll give you that 

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Just for clarity. It is now day 2 of the forecast cold spell.  
snow showers (albeit light here) are already heavier/more extensive than forecast by hires arpege at midnight.  Hi res meto picked most up quite well but still underplayed extent (although, not sure how heavy they would need to be to be picked up. Its literally a dusting here). Theres a better covering in parts of edinburgh and further east where a heavier shower passed over.

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Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

👍

This place can be bizarre at times

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GFS 06z running and now out to a week ahead (T+174).  Already substantially different to the 00z with a pronounced renewed push of Arctic air from the north and the LP shunted towards northern Spain.

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Presumably an outlier, as the 510 dam 500-1,000 hPa thickness line has pushed just south of Shetland by T+186

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A stonking GFS run so far up to 198hrs it has to be said. 

The 198hr pressure chart has that look where the model is like, I’ve no idea where to go from here. My experience tells me that this is usually a good sign in the medium term.

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this could be a very cold end to the GFS... lots of very cold colours just coming into view to the north and east, and not much action to be seen on the atlantic.

Could be alot of discussion about this today

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Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

Not sure who you are referring to. I have repeatedly given a window of 12/12 to 17/12 for the end of the cold spell. I could of course be wrong.

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A stonking GFS run so far up to 198hrs it has to be said. 

The 198hr pressure chart has that look where the model is like, I’ve no idea where to go from here. My experience tells me that this is usually a good sign in the medium term.

The significant changes run to run both intra and inter model and whether we keep the cold and for how long mean that now more than ever 144hrs is really the very limit of credibiity. Before the 144hrs is reached (next Weds) the chance of somewhere in the UK getting a signifciant snowfall (away from Scotland) is increasing. After that it's all just voodoo.

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Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

Whilst they are undoubtedly open to interpretation as to whether they are even worth using, all three weather apps I use - BBC, Met O and Apple, all showing it dry to then end of their timescales for here. Having said that Apple does show a 50% chance of rain next Thursday. 

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this could be a very cold end to the GFS... lots of very cold colours just coming into view to the north and east, and not much action to be seen on the atlantic. Could be alot of discussion about this today

Nope, a sinking HP and again, away from favourable spots in the North, another bone dry, boring run. 

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Nope, a sinking HP and again, away from favourable spots in the North, another bone dry, boring run. 

I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy.

Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.

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