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Saint Snow
08 December 2022 10:18:37

Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 




👍

This place can be bizarre at times

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
08 December 2022 10:19:49
GFS 06z running and now out to a week ahead (T+174).  Already substantially different to the 00z with a pronounced renewed push of Arctic air from the north and the LP shunted towards northern Spain.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
08 December 2022 10:23:06
Presumably an outlier, as the 510 dam 500-1,000 hPa thickness line has pushed just south of Shetland by T+186
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
08 December 2022 10:26:30
A stonking GFS run so far up to 198hrs it has to be said. 

The 198hr pressure chart has that look where the model is like, I’ve no idea where to go from here. My experience tells me that this is usually a good sign in the medium term.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Russwirral
08 December 2022 10:30:24
this could be a very cold end to the GFS... lots of very cold colours just coming into view to the north and east, and not much action to be seen on the atlantic.

Could be alot of discussion about this today

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
08 December 2022 10:31:48

Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Not sure who you are referring to. I have repeatedly given a window of 12/12 to 17/12 for the end of the cold spell. I could of course be wrong.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
08 December 2022 10:32:23

A stonking GFS run so far up to 198hrs it has to be said. 

The 198hr pressure chart has that look where the model is like, I’ve no idea where to go from here. My experience tells me that this is usually a good sign in the medium term.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The significant changes run to run both intra and inter model and whether we keep the cold and for how long mean that now more than ever 144hrs is really the very limit of credibiity. Before the 144hrs is reached (next Weds) the chance of somewhere in the UK getting a signifciant snowfall (away from Scotland) is increasing. After that it's all just voodoo.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Matty H
08 December 2022 10:32:41

Have you not noticed the 'breakdown' has moved from the 13th ish to the 17th ish, i.e over a week away, why oh why do people bother looking at breakdowns before the cold spell has really got going, is this forum really for you??

And for those worrying about being bone dry, have you seen the fax charts....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Whilst they are undoubtedly open to interpretation as to whether they are even worth using, all three weather apps I use - BBC, Met O and Apple, all showing it dry to then end of their timescales for here. Having said that Apple does show a 50% chance of rain next Thursday. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
moomin75
08 December 2022 10:33:14

this could be a very cold end to the GFS... lots of very cold colours just coming into view to the north and east, and not much action to be seen on the atlantic. Could be alot of discussion about this today

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Nope, a sinking HP and again, away from favourable spots in the North, another bone dry, boring run. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
08 December 2022 10:35:51

Nope, a sinking HP and again, away from favourable spots in the North, another bone dry, boring run. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy.

Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
moomin75
08 December 2022 10:39:47

I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy. Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Tiresome but truthful. I'm sorry you feel that way about me calling what I see.

It's still not a bad run, today is another sparkling crisp winter's day, but won't be seeing any snow any time soon is my take on it.

And later in FI, far from a Scandi as you suggest, but a waft of really warm southerlies and temps back towards the teens.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
08 December 2022 10:52:23
Op run definitively end the cold spell out in FI - despite the consistency still to far out and many variables to make it a certainty. But we have cold now to enjoy, who knows could be the last!
nsrobins
08 December 2022 10:58:30
GFS is one model out of five or so mainstream NWP solutions.
The 00Z MOGREPS suite for instance keep it cold until the 18th.
I'm not saying GFS will be wrong, but all the focus over one model in it's extended range isn't healthy.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
08 December 2022 11:05:43
GFS seems to be backing down for snow event on sunday for the south of London
Kingston Upon Thames
moomin75
08 December 2022 11:14:27

GFS seems to be backing down for snow event on sunday for the south of London

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

No surprise there. There are very limited signs for any snow away from the north.This spell will be sparkling as long as we can keep fog at bay though.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 11:21:48
Looking at the ECM ensembles the cold now breaks about the 20th. Can we get a decent snow event before then?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
08 December 2022 11:32:53

GFS is one model out of five or so mainstream NWP solutions.
The 00Z MOGREPS suite for instance keep it cold until the 18th.
I'm not saying GFS will be wrong, but all the focus over one model in it's extended range isn't healthy.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



You are, of course, spot on, but happens all the time because of both the plethora of data available for each run and the fact that it runs every six hours.

Realism is required: how often do we get an uninterrupted cold spell lasting 3 weeks, which would be required to get us through the Xmas weekend?  Some sort of breakdown is likely, but what it looks like, whether it’s temporary or not, and what happens and where at any breakdown are all completely up in the air.

The focus needs to be on the upcoming 4-5 days, with that comparative rarity of cold surface and cold upper temperatures and slack low pressure.  As for the here and now, the thermometer shows it’s still below freezing here (after -3c overnight) the radar returns show lots of activity in the predicted places.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Russwirral
08 December 2022 11:36:09

I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy.

Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Based on the output - from what I can see the only precipitation is going to be the coastal regions of Scotland, some of northern england, and some of Wales.
Id say a good 90% of britain is looking dry for the next week or so.  Those that do see showers, are unlikely to see anything substantial

ECM total precipitation for 1 week. here 

GEFS for Birmingham show very little rain/snow activity for the next week here 
 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
08 December 2022 11:47:19

You are, of course, spot on, but happens all the time because of both the plethora of data available for each run and the fact that it runs every six hours.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It's habit IMO. These days we've got full access to the Met Office and ECM suites either via this site or others. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
08 December 2022 11:49:14
GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.
UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
08 December 2022 11:55:20

Based on the output - from what I can see the only precipitation is going to be the coastal regions of Scotland, some of northern england, and some of Wales.
Id say a good 90% of britain is looking dry for the next week or so.  Those that do see showers, are unlikely to see anything substantial

ECM total precipitation for 1 week. here 

GEFS for Birmingham show very little rain/snow activity for the next week here 
 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



That is much as you would expect, but do you think a global model is going to pick up minor disturbances and shower activity accurately?  I suspect the answer is no. We both know of examples where unexpected snowfall has developed - it happened last winter.

So, whilst you may well be right, there really is no way of knowing for sure in these situations.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Saint Snow
08 December 2022 11:56:56

GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 






Just about that chart, whilst I know it won't turn out like that, just think of how much better the picture would be without that horrible little low spinning off the main low over Scandinavia, cutting off some of the colder flow.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
08 December 2022 11:58:14
WRF has plenty of features in the flow from the east

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2022120806/nmm-2-104-0.png?08-11

UserPostedImage 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
08 December 2022 11:59:01

GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I recall Gusty saying this a few years back when a dry easterly was forecast. He said there's no way that'll be dry and convective showers aplenty would feed in to the east. It never happened and it was totally dry. Not saying this is the same scenario, but sometimes the forecasters know best
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Saint Snow
08 December 2022 12:04:36

That is much as you would expect, but do you think a global model is going to pick up minor disturbances and shower activity accurately?  I suspect the answer is no. We both know of examples where unexpected snowfall has developed - it happened last winter.

So, whilst you may well be right, there really is no way of knowing for sure in these situations.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 




In December 2010, there were 3 or 4 features that popped up in the MO a few/several days out. They then came to nothing. One even got to about +24 before subsequent runs phased it out. I thought we were going to remain dry for the entire cold spell before a feature popped up at short notice (within 24-36 hours) as possibly giving a couple of cm's (which would have satisfied me), then proceeded to build in potency before giving a swathe of the UK a proper dumping on the 17th/18th (level snow here 16cm, but deeper in places)

If this spell is dry IMBY, so be it. But I'm not going to go all 'chicken licken' if the models aren't showing snow (and mention it ad nauseum in every fecking post...) because the situation is always fluid with regards to snow in these set-ups and 2010 taught me patience 😋. Nor am I going to get too excited if they do show a snowy feature several days out.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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