just remember your summer prediction- pretty sure you said you would be right then we all know what happened

Yep, I was wrong (initially), but as the models came to a full agreement, I was happy to admit I was wrong and 40c was recorded.​​​​​​​We shall see, but as pretty much every model is staying dry, I think that's virtually entire Cross model support for a long dry spell (ECM 0Z aside).  

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However *if* the ECM 0Z verified, I will be buried in snow late next week with around 25cm showing on the precipitation charts.
 Marcus, best get your snow shoes ready.I will take a punt and say it's not going to happen though.   

Only 22cm for me lol. ECM is pretty much perfect for me. All of England covered in snow by the end.
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Fantastic charts again this morning. Cold weather to get us through the next few days - ground will get harder and residual heat will dissapear. 

Next week is starting to look high risk / high reward - this is what we need. We have to accept that risk to get the sort of heavy snow a lot of us want. The cross over day was the 14th - that’s now becoming the 18th. 

Right now, I’d like everything to hold until the 24th and then a breakdown from the SW Christmas Eve evening with a titled low and very heavy snow.

tbh if that happened the weather can do what it wanted for the rest of the season and I would care one iota.

Also, if the angle of attack is right, we should panic too much about 850s. I’ve seen heavy snow when 850s are around 0c

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Clear cold sunny days, frost lingering, hard frost at nights.. old-school winters days...I for one will enjoy even if a flake doesn't fall

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Clear cold sunny days, frost lingering, hard frost at nights.. old-school winters days...I for one will enjoy even if a flake doesn't fall

Crystal clear blue skies are far more preferable than dank, overcast, drizzly skies, I must agree.

Was a sparkling day yesterday.

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Fantastic charts again this morning. Cold weather to get us through the next few days - ground will get harder and residual heat will dissapear. 

Next week is starting to look high risk / high reward - this is what we need. We have to accept that risk to get the sort of heavy snow a lot of us want. The cross over day was the 14th - that’s now becoming the 18th. 

Right now, I’d like everything to hold until the 24th and then a breakdown from the SW Christmas Eve evening with a titled low and very heavy snow.

tbh if that happened the weather can do what it wanted for the rest of the season and I would care one iota.

Also, if the angle of attack is right, we should panic too much about 850s. I’ve seen heavy snow when 850s are around 0c

Great post. My sentiments exactly.
you do however have to consider heavy snowfall from a continental flow is still possible although usually not as widespread. 

The question I'm interested in isn't whether it snows or not, but whether the whole thing  collapses like a pack of cards during the second half of December. Given the extraordinary year we've had I wonder whether the winter could turn out to be one of the all time "cold classics"? Very unlikely but given the sudden switch from a very mild autumn who knows where things could go next?

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GFS continues to signal a potential large snow event in the far SE on Sunday. Now being picked up by the UKV.

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The question I'm interested in isn't whether it snows or not, but whether the whole thing  collapses like a pack of cards during the second half of December. Given the extraordinary year we've had I wonder whether the winter could turn out to be one of the all time "cold classics"? Very unlikely but given the sudden switch from a very mild autumn who knows where things could go next?

Bone driest winter on record? 

The disturbance moving down from the NE has produced some low level snow in Aberdeen this morning , but it looks like warming up a bit there now .

Problem further South is twofold in that the precipitation is to be so fragmented (if it even makes it at all) combined with the warmer sector and positive dewpoints that I can see only light rain and sleet so no real covering.  The temp is forecast to be 1c at 200m during the risk of precpitation which is not good enough away from really high ground. 

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Yes - the aquifers in this area haven’t fared so well as those elsewhere, and the seasonal wetlands, streams and ponds are all still bone dry and empty from the summer. We will need a long sustained wet spell to replenish these aquifers. 

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Stalham, Norfolk is getting a plastering. I was staying with rellies’ over that way years ago, and commonly, and as occurred that night, enormous shower clouds brushed that coast - from Cromer to Lowestoft, and gave 4 inches of crisp snow, but west of that - not a flake. The westerly bend in the northerly is repeating this phenomenon - it will seemingly be just clipping the coast of east Anglia, but most of us will; miss it.

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Stalham, Norfolk is getting a plastering. I was staying with rellies’ over that way years ago, and commonly, and as occurred that night, enormous shower clouds brushed that colder - from Cromer to Lowestoft, and gave 4 inches of crisp snow, but west of that - not a flake. The westerly bend in the northerly is repeating this phenomenon - it will seemingly be just clipping the coast of east Anglia, but most of us wil; miss it.

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The question I'm interested in isn't whether it snows or not, but whether the whole thing  collapses like a pack of cards during the second half of December. Given the extraordinary year we've had I wonder whether the winter could turn out to be one of the all time "cold classics"? Very unlikely but given the sudden switch from a very mild autumn who knows where things could go next?

GEFS seems to be firming up on 17 Dec as the end of this cold spell at least (which is pretty good as it was looking like maybe the 12-13th at one stage). However some members do prolong the cold. 

Isn’t Christmas week one of the traditional Buchan mild spells or am I misremembering that?

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GEFS seems to be firming up on 17 Dec as the end of this cold spell at least (which is pretty good as it was looking like maybe the 12-13th at one stage). However some members do prolong the cold. 

Isn’t Christmas week one of the traditional Buchan mild spells or am I misremembering that?

I think we are currently entering one of those 

SE and East Anglia need to keep an eye on Sunday and Monday for the potential of some snow. Would expect the forecasts to mention the risk soon

GEFS seems to be firming up on 17 Dec as the end of this cold spell at least (which is pretty good as it was looking like maybe the 12-13th at one stage). However some members do prolong the cold. 

Isn’t Christmas week one of the traditional Buchan mild spells or am I misremembering that?

Yes 17/12 is at the end of my range, 12/12 to 17/12, for the end of the cold spell. 

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ECM op was an outlier on 16/12 but the general theme from the ENS is a cold one even in the south.

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Yes - the aquifers in this area haven’t fared so well as those elsewhere, and the seasonal wetlands, streams and ponds are all still bone dry and empty from the summer. We will need a long sustained wet spell to replenish these aquifers. 

Our hosepipe ban has just been lifted this week as the reservoirs are 75% full

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WX temps cold or very cold across N & W Europe  including Britain in week 1. In week 2 the  0C isotherm draws back to Germany but spreads down to N Greece and the area to the E of it becomes generally very cold, backed up by large mass of ultra-cold in Russia. The netweather snow-risk chart which also includes freezing levels shows mild Atlantic air washing across England (but not reaching Scotland) on Sun 18th, only for cold air to return to England from Europe on Sat 24th. Pptn to N of Scotland and in a broad arc from Spain through Italy to W Russia in week 1, in week 2 the former intensifies and expands to cover Britain, the latter weakens and moves SE towards Turkey.

GFS Op - LP shifting around over N Europe/Scandinavia until Sat 17th with cold air drifting towards Britain irregularly and mostly from NE. The pressure rises with ridge N-S for Britain; this slips E-wards developing a centre 1045mb Finland Mon 19th and Britain under S-lies for the rest of that week. On Sat 24th, pressure falls away over S France and winds turn more to the SE for England.

ECM - similar but around Thu 15th LP from the Atlantic approaches Cornwall with more of a SE-ly than a NE-ly influence, but the cold air hangs on until Sat 18th when HP as above.

GEFS - remaining very cold with good agreement between ens members until Sat 17th after which a sudden onset of a wide spread of outcomes, op and control leading the charge to very mild (10C above norm in S  but not negligible in N) but counterbalanced by other ens members which keep the mean close to norm. A burst of pptn Sun 11th in the SE, otherwise mostly dry  there until Sat 17th when most members have some small amounts of pptn from time to time; near coasts small amounts of pptn throughout with extra for the SW later on..

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