WX temps cold or very cold across N & W Europe including Britain in week 1. In week 2 the 0C isotherm draws back to Germany but spreads down to N Greece and the area to the E of it becomes generally very cold, backed up by large mass of ultra-cold in Russia. The netweather snow-risk chart which also includes freezing levels shows mild Atlantic air washing across England (but not reaching Scotland) on Sun 18th, only for cold air to return to England from Europe on Sat 24th. Pptn to N of Scotland and in a broad arc from Spain through Italy to W Russia in week 1, in week 2 the former intensifies and expands to cover Britain, the latter weakens and moves SE towards Turkey.
GFS Op - LP shifting around over N Europe/Scandinavia until Sat 17th with cold air drifting towards Britain irregularly and mostly from NE. The pressure rises with ridge N-S for Britain; this slips E-wards developing a centre 1045mb Finland Mon 19th and Britain under S-lies for the rest of that week. On Sat 24th, pressure falls away over S France and winds turn more to the SE for England.
ECM - similar but around Thu 15th LP from the Atlantic approaches Cornwall with more of a SE-ly than a NE-ly influence, but the cold air hangs on until Sat 18th when HP as above.
GEFS - remaining very cold with good agreement between ens members until Sat 17th after which a sudden onset of a wide spread of outcomes, op and control leading the charge to very mild (10C above norm in S but not negligible in N) but counterbalanced by other ens members which keep the mean close to norm. A burst of pptn Sun 11th in the SE, otherwise mostly dry there until Sat 17th when most members have some small amounts of pptn from time to time; near coasts small amounts of pptn throughout with extra for the SW later on..
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl