I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy. Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.

Tiresome but truthful. I'm sorry you feel that way about me calling what I see.

It's still not a bad run, today is another sparkling crisp winter's day, but won't be seeing any snow any time soon is my take on it.

And later in FI, far from a Scandi as you suggest, but a waft of really warm southerlies and temps back towards the teens.

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Op run definitively end the cold spell out in FI - despite the consistency still to far out and many variables to make it a certainty. But we have cold now to enjoy, who knows could be the last!

GFS is one model out of five or so mainstream NWP solutions.
The 00Z MOGREPS suite for instance keep it cold until the 18th.
I'm not saying GFS will be wrong, but all the focus over one model in it's extended range isn't healthy.

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GFS seems to be backing down for snow event on sunday for the south of London

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GFS seems to be backing down for snow event on sunday for the south of London

No surprise there. There are very limited signs for any snow away from the north.This spell will be sparkling as long as we can keep fog at bay though.

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Looking at the ECM ensembles the cold now breaks about the 20th. Can we get a decent snow event before then?
 

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GFS is one model out of five or so mainstream NWP solutions.
The 00Z MOGREPS suite for instance keep it cold until the 18th.
I'm not saying GFS will be wrong, but all the focus over one model in it's extended range isn't healthy.

You are, of course, spot on, but happens all the time because of both the plethora of data available for each run and the fact that it runs every six hours.

Realism is required: how often do we get an uninterrupted cold spell lasting 3 weeks, which would be required to get us through the Xmas weekend?  Some sort of breakdown is likely, but what it looks like, whether it’s temporary or not, and what happens and where at any breakdown are all completely up in the air.

The focus needs to be on the upcoming 4-5 days, with that comparative rarity of cold surface and cold upper temperatures and slack low pressure.  As for the here and now, the thermometer shows it’s still below freezing here (after -3c overnight) the radar returns show lots of activity in the predicted places.

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I am sorry. But this is plan wrong. After 198hrs the high is building towards the SE and trying to move to scandy.

Your bone dry comments are becoming increasingly tiresome.

Based on the output - from what I can see the only precipitation is going to be the coastal regions of Scotland, some of northern england, and some of Wales.
Id say a good 90% of britain is looking dry for the next week or so.  Those that do see showers, are unlikely to see anything substantial

ECM total precipitation for 1 week. here 

GEFS for Birmingham show very little rain/snow activity for the next week here 
 

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You are, of course, spot on, but happens all the time because of both the plethora of data available for each run and the fact that it runs every six hours.

It's habit IMO. These days we've got full access to the Met Office and ECM suites either via this site or others. 

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GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.

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Based on the output - from what I can see the only precipitation is going to be the coastal regions of Scotland, some of northern england, and some of Wales.
Id say a good 90% of britain is looking dry for the next week or so.  Those that do see showers, are unlikely to see anything substantial

ECM total precipitation for 1 week. here 

GEFS for Birmingham show very little rain/snow activity for the next week here 
 

That is much as you would expect, but do you think a global model is going to pick up minor disturbances and shower activity accurately?  I suspect the answer is no. We both know of examples where unexpected snowfall has developed - it happened last winter.

So, whilst you may well be right, there really is no way of knowing for sure in these situations.

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GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Just about that chart, whilst I know it won't turn out like that, just think of how much better the picture would be without that horrible little low spinning off the main low over Scandinavia, cutting off some of the colder flow.

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WRF has plenty of features in the flow from the east

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2022120806/nmm-2-104-0.png?08-11

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

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GFS 6Z shows snow for most people on the 18th, albeit in the form of a southerly snow to rain event.

GEFS 6Z update shows a few more members ending the cold earlier when compared to the 0Z which had hardly any, but still looks solid for cold out to the 17th.

Regarding dryness, I refuse to believe that a chart like this would be dry whatever the model parameters themselves might say that far out.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I recall Gusty saying this a few years back when a dry easterly was forecast. He said there's no way that'll be dry and convective showers aplenty would feed in to the east. It never happened and it was totally dry. Not saying this is the same scenario, but sometimes the forecasters know best

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That is much as you would expect, but do you think a global model is going to pick up minor disturbances and shower activity accurately?  I suspect the answer is no. We both know of examples where unexpected snowfall has developed - it happened last winter.

So, whilst you may well be right, there really is no way of knowing for sure in these situations.

In December 2010, there were 3 or 4 features that popped up in the MO a few/several days out. They then came to nothing. One even got to about +24 before subsequent runs phased it out. I thought we were going to remain dry for the entire cold spell before a feature popped up at short notice (within 24-36 hours) as possibly giving a couple of cm's (which would have satisfied me), then proceeded to build in potency before giving a swathe of the UK a proper dumping on the 17th/18th (level snow here 16cm, but deeper in places)

If this spell is dry IMBY, so be it. But I'm not going to go all 'chicken licken' if the models aren't showing snow (and mention it ad nauseum in every fecking post...) because the situation is always fluid with regards to snow in these set-ups and 2010 taught me patience 😋. Nor am I going to get too excited if they do show a snowy feature several days out.

 

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I recall Gusty saying this a few years back when a dry easterly was forecast. He said there's no way that'll be dry and convective showers aplenty would feed in to the east. It never happened and it was totally dry. Not saying this is the same scenario, but sometimes the forecasters know best

Exactly; and the forecasters are saying that showers could pop up anywhere with slack low pressure and several decaying frontal features meandering around.

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FWIW I am nowhere near the coast and the iPhone and BBC automated forecasts all have showers in the forecast for here. BBC has precipitation virtually all day on Thursday, albeit turning to rain for much of the day, with temps of 0C. iPhone has 11cm of snow on Thursday but turning to rain before it fizzles out, then more snow on Friday.

So the models are not unanimously bone dry!

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Not sure who you are referring to. I have repeatedly given a window of 12/12 to 17/12 for the end of the cold spell. I could of course be wrong.

Not you Brian, it was BFTE. 

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Exactly; and the forecasters are saying that showers could pop up anywhere with slack low pressure and several decaying frontal features meandering around.

As they are now - an area of snow developing in Cumbria and drifting into the Lake District in the next hour. Appeared pretty much out of nowhere.
No model however good is going to get mesoscale features right in slack cold set-ups.

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I recall Gusty saying this a few years back when a dry easterly was forecast. He said there's no way that'll be dry and convective showers aplenty would feed in to the east. It never happened and it was totally dry. Not saying this is the same scenario, but sometimes the forecasters know best

Exactly Matty, i.e the current warnings which are not just for N Scotland lol

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