I'd agree with that generally although Kent can be an exception at times in a convective NE ly such as 87  or even an easterly  qhen east kent could get a dumping  but that was more common in the past than recent decades  examples Feb 54 and 56  Jan 85  

.... plus many, many more pre 1990.

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GEM is crap longer term this time
GFS Control is ok
A very messy picture post day 7
 

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UKMO extended is brilliant. lets hope ECM follows
 

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Drier than a nun's chuff. 

9 days away 🤣

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Pretty close to the holy grail of a UK wide (ex Scotland) snowstorm. 

Nice to look at, if very unlikely to verify.

I do think we'll be unlikely to completely miss out, I suspect somewhere is going to receive a pasting within the next fortnight. 

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A flick through the GEFS post 192 and every option on the table. No point dwelling beyond a week now
 

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9 days away 🤣

I'm being very silly obviously. 😂

The great dry cold spell of December 2022 could well be Moomin's lasting legacy. We'll see.  

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UKMO extended is brilliant. lets hope ECM follows
 

Yes, looks not bad for a continuation of the cold spell. 👍

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A flick through the GEFS post 192 and every option on the table. No point dwelling beyond a week now
 

Mean looks ok.


 

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GEM is crap longer term this time
GFS Control is ok
A very messy picture post day 7
 

Looking at the very broad brush picture it does look increasingly likely that by day 10 the wave in the jet stream will have migrated eastwards far enough to put us on the mild side with HP over France. The question is whether, as some models are hinting, that HP can move up to Scandinavia and bring in a fresh easterly. The GFS op run hints that way at the end.

In the shorter term some real coldies coming up in the GEFS with a couple bringing -15C air into Scotland.
P15 looks like the pick of the bunch.

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Why? Isn't that the whole point of a computer model - I'd be surprised if it wasn't 😁

Previously shown snow events for early next week that have now vanished. The much maligned pinch of salt is it certainly won't happen like that if at all. 

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I'm being very silly obviously. 😂

The great dry cold spell of December 2022 could well be Moomin's lasting legacy. We'll see.  

As we on the road today and seeing some frost not melted, I and my wife wish it was snow on the ground and today was supposed to be snowy day but instead a standard frost and less cold temps by day time.  Such a biggest waste so far to stay dry under LP system.  

Liking the look of the fax charts for Fri night/Sat morning 👍

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Looking at the stratospheric and jet stream profile, I think there is about 8 or 9 days worth of this current cold spell before the whole thing get flattened out by a +NAO setup. Until then it's a question of striking it lucky snow-wise via localised disturbances in a shallow trough-like set up before ending in a sloppy transitional snow event most likely around the "waistline" of the UK. That's me thinking aloud before issuing my own "Farmers Forecast" on my Facebook weather group. 

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The ECM 12z is out to 168hr now and by that times is (still) very cold.

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Before anyone posts an ECM snow chart, look how terribly inaccurate they are for even T0. https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/uk/charts/snowdepth_20221208_12_000.jpg? 
 

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I've not looked at it statistically, but on balance I'd say that here in the Chilterns we see a similar amount of snow to York which is about 180 miles further north. (I'm basing it on living here and regularly talking to people who still live up there). Things possibly "deteriorate" from the snow perspective more noticeably in counties south of London. Other people may disagree with this assessment. 

I totally agree with you. I leave in Kingston Upon Thames which is a snow desert. We either get snow north of the M4 OR we get snow in Kingston buy there is an A3 boundry in place which means that heavier snow falls in the area south of the A3!!! How about that for geography if you are a snow lover.

As for France it is only happening as I am driving to the French Alps on the 17th so bound to have some sort of delay getting there. Its either the Euro tunnel or the weather. If that does not work out then the border force strike will get me on the way back.

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Entertaining scatter on the GEFS post 16th/17th from -15 (nearly) to +11 at 850 level. On balance after the 19th it looks more likely to go back towards average or above average temps, although as some of the members dive between the 2 it's not exactly conclusive or easy to tell. 

All a bit far out really, with more interesting weather (possibly) before then. (Ignoring the snow already fallen/falling in parts of Scotland!).

ECM keeps it cold at 850 level to day 9, before some milder upper air spreads to the South at least although away from the far South West I'd imagine it'd remain cold at the surface. Post then it's hard to tell what would happen although normally you'd expect the LP responsible to drift North or North East and gradually introduce milder air for all. The 10 day chart doesn't scream return of the Atlantic though IMO so might be one of those messy nothing results before either a reload or a gradual return to something more mobile.

 

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Ecm is a belter for 2 reasons...

Introduces snow from a northerly source, something no other models are suggesting

It follows up with another pulse from the south

All whilst keeping us in the cold wedge.

its all tittle tattle at this stage, but not mild.

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Before anyone posts an ECM snow chart, look how terribly inaccurate they are for even T0. https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/uk/charts/snowdepth_20221208_12_000.jpg? 
 

Why anyone would use a global model for precipitation risk, other then a general broad scale risk is not wise. 
Even the short range higher resolution models ain't the greatest. 

The ECM has 7 cm at t78 imby ill believe it when I see it.