It can work both ways. I can recall a yellow for snow in my patch during the following 12 hours, but it was clear from the radar that nothing was on the way. 

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As they are now - an area of snow developing in Cumbria and drifting into the Lake District in the next hour. Appeared pretty much out of nowhere.
No model however good is going to get mesoscale features right in slack cold set-ups.

Just been on the radar watching that path of failry heavy PPN slide down the Irish Sea west of Wales, thinking "Hey, that's my snow!" (I presume this was the snow that, up to a couple of days ago, was forecast to slide down the west coast of NW England and plaster N Wales)
 

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As they are now - an area of snow developing in Cumbria and drifting into the Lake District in the next hour. Appeared pretty much out of nowhere.

to be fair, its not much of an aera is it! 

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I can recall yellow snow in my patch

Careful with that

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to be fair, its not much of an aera is it! 

It isn’t now but was a couple of hours ago.
The uncertainty principle works both ways lol.

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Decent signal for heavy snow in northern France next week.

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Decent signal for heavy snow in northern France next week.

Of course there is. And 100% this will verify and miss the UK by a few miles.
Is always the way in this country.

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Saturday has extensive cyclonic vorticity over large parts of the UK.
My interpretation of this is that somewhere should expect to see some snow, GEM has had a similar idea, though the location keeps changing.
 

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Do you have ICON-D2 in the works yet Brian? This would be a great addition to TWO. Noone does UK specific ICON-D2 charts, and its really a great model (provided you live east of the pennines/grampians).
 

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Do you have ICON-D2 in the works yet Brian? This would be a great addition to TWO. Noone does UK specific ICON-D2 charts, and its really a great model (provided you live east of the pennines/grampians).
 

I've got the server capacity now but haven't had time to integrate it yet. 

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I recall Gusty saying this a few years back when a dry easterly was forecast. He said there's no way that'll be dry and convective showers aplenty would feed in to the east. It never happened and it was totally dry. Not saying this is the same scenario, but sometimes the forecasters know best

I was younger, foolish and naive back in them days Matty. 🤩

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ICON 12Z first out of the blocks and looks to prolong the cold (and yes, dry) theme.

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I was younger, foolish and naive back in them days Matty. 🤩

🤣🤣

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One thing I don't understand is why the UK Met Global has been showing such low overnight temperatures. My understanding is it is basically the same model as UKV and MOGREPS but they are all run at different resolutions. So the internal physics should be common across the suite. 

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ICON is stunning and loaded with potential. 

138hr to 162hrs is amazing.

Great start to the evening

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ICON is stunning and loaded with potential. 

138hr to 162hrs is amazing.

Great start to the evening

Hello Mr Polar vortex 😃

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Well as the temp here dips back below freezing after the dizzying heights of 0.8c ICON would make that feel balmy.

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ICON is stunning and loaded with potential. 

138hr to 162hrs is amazing.

Great start to the evening

😍

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ICON 12Z first out of the blocks and looks to prolong the cold (and yes, dry) theme.

Whilst I wouldn't put you in the category of some folks who are clearly just on a windup, I do think you tend to get an idea stuck in your head and run with it regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

That in mind, what about this chart from the ICON says 'dry' to you? 

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Decent signal for heavy snow in northern France next week.

Geography really isn't our friend in the south of the UK is it?

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