Before anyone posts an ECM snow chart, look how terribly inaccurate they are for even T0. https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/ecmwf/uk/charts/snowdepth_20221208_12_000.jpg? 
 

Also there was some chart showing some snow up to 3-5cm in Birmingham but instead got wall to wall sunshine and a standard frost. 

The ECM 12z is out to 168hr now and by that times is (still) very cold.

There's the usual noise and uncertainty in the charts but what you've posted is the key take as far as I’m concerned. Plenty to suggest that this cold spell could stick around. 

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Slight up tick at day 10 but that's a solidly cold 10 days still from the ECM ensembles. 

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Slight up tick at day 10 but that's a solidly cold 10 days still from the ECM ensembles. 

Yes, cold but perhaps trending slightly less cold, but the Op is well within the spread and supported by the mean.

I know the ECM snow depth charts are iffy but after several bands of sleet/snow towards the end of the run we have a predicted 10cm here, helped by our elevation.
 

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Yes, cold but perhaps trending slightly less cold, but the Op is well within the spread and supported by the mean.

I know the ECM snow depth charts are iffy but after several bands of sleet/snow towards the end of the run we have a predicted 10cm here, helped by our elevation.
 

Most of the snow total for our location comes from this at t78 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=78&mode=2&carte=6 
 

Most of the snow total for our location comes from this at t78 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=78&mode=2&carte=6 
 

Cambridge gets about another 4-5cm from the sleet/snow on the last couple of days of the run, taking you to about 8cm. Assuming it happens like that, of course.

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Why anyone would use a global model for precipitation risk, other then a general broad scale risk is not wise. 
Even the short range higher resolution models ain't the greatest. 

The ECM has 7 cm at t78 imby ill believe it when I see it.

I actually find global models to be better at showing which areas are prone prep than super hi res ones. High res models try too hard to pin point specific showers which often fail to hit the specific areas that they are shown over, while lower res globals tend to show a broader scale risk zone. which to me, prove to be more helpful general speaking. 

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I actually find global models to be better at showing which areas are prone prep than super hi res ones. High res models try too hard to pin point specific shower which often fail to hit the specific areas that are shown over, while lower resg globals tend to show a broader scale risk zone. 

You have misunderstood the issue, Patrick.  The lower res models simply aren’t designed to pick up such activity. As you say, they can deal with the general pattern but that means they will miss the finer detail; it’s equivalent to the higher res global models being better than the lower res ones.
 

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You have misunderstood the issue, Patrick.  The lower res models simply aren’t designed to pick up such activity. As you say, they can deal with the general pattern but that means they will miss the finer detail; it’s equivalent to the higher res global models being better than the lower res ones.
 

I get what you are saying, but regarding that 'finer detail' (regarding prep) I often find that this can be less accurate. During a summer thundery spell, for example, very often our own official high res model (Harmonie) will show big red blobs over very specific areas only for the reality to turn out different. Global models tend to show that broader risk zone better I think, by not showing one specific small area getting hammered, which of course is what happens in severe summer weather, but I'm just saying those specific areas are not offen correctly forecast. 

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Very much JFF ((C) Marcus) but 18z GFS op brings a period of chiefly light snow to parts of Essex and the South East Monday. The previously modelled snow/rain for Sunday instead just skirts the coast. 

Bigger picture and not surprisingly (but welcome given the milder/colder shenanigans from earlier this week) it's cold to T147 and there's a renewed push of cold uppers in to Scotland, with -10 to -12 850s. 

  

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I won't embed the tweets, but there's a discussion I started about the low temps which the UK Met Global Model has shown at times in recent days on Twitter here:

https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/1600875797384134657 

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18z ensembles sees a few perts indicating a potential breakdown 14/15 December but many still seem set on prolonging the cold weather with renewed cold from the north!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022120818/gens-4-0-156.png 
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022120818/gens-11-0-156.png 
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022120818/gens-17-0-174.png 
 

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A few of the high res models are picking up a snow event for NW England tomorrow night, looks like a snow streamer type affair . Lots of chatter about it on the other side from knowledgeable folk. 

I have a few snow symbols on the meto app now, not counting my chickens through! 

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A real 50/50 split on the continuation of cold at just 6 days on the 18z ensembles IMBY!
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2022120818/graphe3_00000_222_247___.gif 

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A real 50/50 split on the continuation of cold at just 6 days on the 18z ensembles IMBY!
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2022120818/graphe3_00000_222_247___.gif 

at least the control builds a high and keeps it bitter though dry 

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I think people are getting mixed up here.  The reliable charts look very dry, the longer terms flip flop by the day and some look dry, the others not so.

The chart you have picked is from over a week away.  The Icon until that point only shows shower activity over the sea, and very little over land.

Therefor the onging mantra of it looking dry

Spot on. Dry if not exceedingly dry for the foreseeable and a complete non-event for 90+% of the UK population. 

Is there snow showing in the reliable in anyone’s back yard, never mind mine or yours? 

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Spot on. Dry if not exceedingly dry for the foreseeable and a complete non-event for 90+% of the UK population. 

Is there snow showing in the reliable in anyone’s back yard, never mind mine or yours? 

You could always try looking at the rainfall radar to see where snow and sleet are falling currently - Peak District, East Midlands, Humberside….  Then have a look at the high res charts, which show light sleet/snow showers in places.   If that’s still insufficient then this evening the professionals have been referring to snow showers forming ‘almost anywhere’ over the weekend.

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You could always try looking at the rainfall radar to see where snow and sleet are falling currently - Peak District, East Midlands, Humberside….  Then have a look at the high res charts, which show light sleet/snow showers in places.   If that’s still insufficient then this evening the professionals have been referring to snow showers forming ‘almost anywhere’ over the weekend.

Almost anywhere will be almost nowhere - 90+% of the population staying bone dry I reckon. I can see the showers on the radar, usual favoured spots and won’t affect many.  

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Spot on. Dry if not exceedingly dry for the foreseeable and a complete non-event for 90+% of the UK population. 

Is there snow showing in the reliable in anyone’s back yard, never mind mine or yours? 

 
Do you just copy and paste? Change the record eh you’re boring now 

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Almost anywhere will be almost nowhere - 90+% of the population staying bone dry I reckon. I can see the showers on the radar, usual favoured spots and won’t affect many.  

Since when did snow showers for the Peak District qualify as 'the usual favoured spots' in a 'bone dry northerly'?  Sorry, you can't just shift the goalposts around when you are shown to be wrong.  Anyway, simply ignoring much of what I wrote and trotting out the same cliche really isn't clever. 

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