The fortnight's outlook from WX shows plenty of cold air around but with the forecasting cliche, 'subtle changes'. Week 1, cold well advanced across W Europe to include France and Britain, and very cold in Norway. In week 2, cold retreating to Germany and  also becoming colder in that area though France and Britain still cold-ish, and a movement of cold S-wards into the Balkans. Ominously, something milder affecting S Ireland and Cornwall.

GFS Op - until Mon 12th, cold air drifting in from the NE under influence of LP near the Baltic States. An Atlantic LP then moves SE-wards Tue 13th to Spain, with SE-lies briefly before a new and deeper LP over N Norway gives an equally brief N-ly Thu 15th. HP grows over the weekend 1040mb Britain by Mon 19th, with broad ridge to SE. This HP moves off to the SW and  the familiar W-ly pattern, LP near Iceland and HP Azores is present by Wed 21st, but a trough pushing S-wards from this pattern present in the N Sea for Christmas Eve producing unsettled weather in the Med on Christmas Day.

ECM - similar movements of LP and HP but with some differences in position; Tue 13th LP is a bit further S so N/NE continue without the brief break; Mon 19th HP is further E, over Germany, allowing an Atlantic LP to approach Ireland with strong S-lies for all britain rather than just for the extreme west.

GEFS - the large majority of ens members staying cold/very cold until Sun/Mon 18th/19th, and then a return to norm for many members, with fewer dramatic outliers than yesterday but still plenty of variation. Small amounts of pptn in many ens members from Sun 11th (earlier than shown yesterday for the south) but larger amounts in the SW. Snow row figures quite high in the N to start with but amounts of snow likely to be small.

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SE contingent could be in for something on Sunday. Naturally for me a bit further north please.

https://twitter.com/stormchaserliam/status/1601105812323454977?s=46&t=MO38KYWUcvFX3KghfwRARA 

The METO app also now has a snow symbol for my area.

GFS has activity as well, Sunday in to Monday - given the previously modelled rain/snow is now keeping to the South I'll not get too excited but if it's still there Saturday PM I'll allow myself a smidge of anticipation. 

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Erm. UKV is even better than I realised?!

https://twitter.com/nvangelder03/status/1601122718690136064?s=46&t=MO38KYWUcvFX3KghfwRARA 
 

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I agree it will be disappointing if there is no snow but it is also nice to have a cold , dry and frosty spell. Although here the temp might not actually get under -3c so for the average person in the street it may be no different to a high pressure set up in winter if there is no snow.  

Apart from rare Easterlies, the best snowfalls here come from messy synoptics , and battleground scenerios, even mediocre looking charts that people wouldn't describe as stunning and get excited about weeks in advanced( to pluck a few dates e.g 25 Jan 95, 8 Jan 21, 14 Jan 21.) 
It is so rare to get a cold spell with snow early in that spell that you can enjoy for over a week. I remember loads of dry cold spells when I was growing up. 

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Since when did snow showers for the Peak District qualify as 'the usual favoured spots' in a 'bone dry northerly'?  Sorry, you can't just shift the goalposts around when you are shown to be wrong.  Anyway, simply ignoring much of what I wrote and trotting out the same cliche really isn't clever. 

Not really. Those members who have been forecasting dry or very dry for the majority have been flamed over and again yet so far have been proved right. The snow rampers are seeing what they want to see, not what the models are showing. 

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Erm. UKV is even better than I realised?!

https://twitter.com/nvangelder03/status/1601122718690136064?s=46&t=MO38KYWUcvFX3KghfwRARA 
 

I'd bank that as it gives me about 11cm. Chances of happening like that maybe 3% maybe. 
 

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Erm. UKV is even better than I realised?!

https://twitter.com/nvangelder03/status/1601122718690136064?s=46&t=MO38KYWUcvFX3KghfwRARA 
 

ECM also picks it up. An area of intense precipitation, which given the temperature has to be snow - away from the coast.

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I'd bank that as it gives me about 11cm. Chances of happening like that maybe 3% maybe. 
 

Ill take 3% lol - I felt a bit miserable after the runs this morning and that's given me something to focus on. If it's still there in the next 12hrs and the signal increases we could have warnings early as only two days away. 

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I am not underwhelmed as I wasn't expecting anything from this and looks like I will be proved right.In ths country it is so difficult to get snow, and I've learned now after so many let downs not to expect anything, and then the disappointment doesn't come.
The models are all pretty poor this morning, and there's no getting away from that.
A 10 day dry cold spell with even a chance of a good old fashioned snowy break down does not interest me one iota. 

I differ slightly Kieron in that I love cold, bright, frosty weather and therefore love the current conditions. However, the bone dry outlook is unlikely to butter many parsnips for weather enthusiasts who want to see snow. And attacking members who call it dry as they see it is just silly.

There is precious little ppn for the foreseeable for most. That might change of course. 

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I'd bank that as it gives me about 11cm. Chances of happening like that maybe 3% maybe. 
 

UKV would give the higher parts of Epping Forest half a foot. But I agree that it’s a low chance outcome with minimal support. 

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Ill take 3% lol - I felt a bit miserable after the runs this morning and that's given me something to focus on. If it's still there in the next 12hrs and the signal increases we could have warnings early as only two days away. 

The possibility of an upper trough developing as a discrete feature in the E English Channel on Sunday is being played around with and was shown on some broadcast graphics last evening.

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Some actual model analysis would be welcome instead of this constant point scoring.

It is both tiresome and tedious. 

On topic - it does seem now we have a *bit* of consensus on a breakdown to something slightly less cold towards next weekend.

In the short term there is a chance of some heavy snow tonight in NW England (Harmonie and Arpege the pick of the bunch), and SE England later in the weekend. 

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Not really. Those members who have been forecasting dry or very dry for the majority have been flamed over and again yet so far have been proved right. The snow rampers are seeing what they want to see, not what the models are showing. 

But that's my point: you're not commenting on the models either, just pursuing your own agenda.  The high res models are showing snow for some and therefore it's perfectly valid to comment on that.  

'Being proved right' isn't a basis for criticing entirely valid discussion about the model output.

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Does anyone know when the 06z UKV comes out?

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Well - two direct hits for me his morning from the showers associated with the mini feature sliding down the North Sea - I would be smug, but it was purely rain! Now have sheet ice on all paved surfaces. 

Yesterday - snow did fall around Norwich - a dusting, but enough to look white. This mornings two showers were heavy and would have delivered a centimetre or two, but - no - just cold, steely rain. Disappointing I must admit, but not uncommon, but perhaps not expected with such an Arctic sourced cold spell, but perhaps and with these very warm seas - there must have been some warm air aloft. 

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Back to topic, there is now greater alignment about the collapse of the amazing Scandi to Greenland high link up we have so rarely seen in recent decades, which begins to restore the normal west to east flow. The jet seems weak and prone to amplification, so a repeat performance is not off the cards post Christmas. Perhaps then it will be A colder and a snowier version.

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is there evidence /precedent that if you’ve had an unusual pattern eg GH high that a reset of similar is more likely again in short term and perhaps a longer term pattern change? 

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Yes the main interest for me is how things develop after 20/12. Will we revert to the same old story that has become so familiar in recent years or will this turn out to be a more traditional and varied winter. One thing I would say is the computer models are "performing" very well on the whole. The breakdown has been well signalled, albeit pushed back towards the end of the initial date range. In addition the lack of snow in most of the UK, at least for now, has been signposted clearly. 

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Yes the main interest for me is how things develop after 20/12. Will we revert to the same old story that has become so familiar in recent years or will this turn out to be a more traditional and varied winter. One thing I would say is the computer models are "performing" very well on the whole. The breakdown has been well signalled, albeit pushed back towards the end of the initial date range. In addition the lack of snow in most of the UK, at least for now, has been signposted clearly. 

Even with that relative "lack" of snow, we have still had more snow here with this spell of weather than what we had during the whole of last winter so if this really does end up being a less snowy version of something coming up further down the line, I will have no complaints about that whatsoever.
 

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Going on about a dry cold spell. You lot would have loved 1986. Weeks of sub zero or just above with a strong easterly wind, and crystal blue skies all the way. Not a flake.

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