The MetOffice have updated their cold weather warning up to next Friday which you'd expect with models muting a breakdown from Sunday week.

Interestingly, they have called out the snow risk on Sunday - 30% risk of up to 5cm of Snow.

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Second those comments.....think this winter will turn out to be long with recurring cold spells...old school

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Haven't the models increased the chances of a breakdown from Sunday week, not 'muted' it?

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I'm happy with dry after all the rain we had in November. It is giving the rivers and local countryside an opportunity to recover a little although a freeze will impact further evaporation .

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Looking at the GFS I wonder what % of the population will have seen an end to their bone dry conditions! End of the weekend is definitely shaping up to give a few falling snow. Hampshire to Kent and up to East Anglia possibly

Don't know if it's me but each run appears to be drier. This frontal system was due to bring sleet and snow to the south on Tuesday now looks to skip the south west and give the Channel Isles snow. If that's the case than the best Devon can hope for is the odd fleeting snow flurry.

Bit of a waste. TBH then.
 

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Back to topic, there is now greater alignment about the collapse of the amazing Scandi to Greenland high link up we have so rarely seen in recent decades, which begins to restore the normal west to east flow. The jet seems weak and prone to amplification, so a repeat performance is not off the cards post Christmas. Perhaps then it will be A colder and a snowier version.

Yes, sadly Xmas is looking green, the breakdown is now well modelled for post World Cup final day
But a lot can happen before and perhaps we can squeeze out a UK high to keep it cold even if the jet rages over the top
 

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I differ slightly Kieron in that I love cold, bright, frosty weather and therefore love the current conditions. However, the bone dry outlook is unlikely to butter many parsnips for weather enthusiasts who want to see snow. And attacking members who call it dry as they see it is just silly.

There is precious little ppn for the foreseeable for most. That might change of course. 

After many years you learn the golden rule is never cross a snow hoper, even if you are one yourself. 😂
Nevertheless there has been patchy snow in the north and dry as it has been I think it is the usual - you never know. I don't see any widespread deep snow from this set up though.













 

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Brief light snow in Reigate….wrong thread perhaps but felt pertinent considering some of the content in here.

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Brief light snow in Reigate….wrong thread perhaps but felt pertinent considering some of the content in here.

That'll be dry snow no doubt? 😂

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Brief light snow in Reigate….wrong thread perhaps but felt pertinent considering some of the content in here.

Further to that, I checked the radar and had expected it to have drifted in from the Thames estuary, but in actual fact, it was born in inner south east London!
Just shows, in this set up anything could happen 🙂

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...
Things possibly "deteriorate" from the snow perspective more noticeably in counties south of London. Other people may disagree with this assessment. 

I certainly agree with the quoted sentence of this assessment, especially down here in the Medway valley [Tonbridge] compared to the heights of Sevenoaks and Tunbridge Wells (hello Hippydave🙂). Occasionally we get lucky (e.g. Jan '87) but mostly we have less snow than the high ground north of London.

I expect I shall be looking at the radar/lampost if the chances of snow on Sunday evening get higher nearer the time - certainly one to keep an eye on.

Edit to add: This is my first post using the new forum software, and I see that there is no indication on it of my location, whereas this used to appear in the sidebar as part of the user profile information.  I wonder whether Brian could reinstate this information as part of the header of each post, alongside user name.

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Am seeing signs that blocking in one way or another is signalled to stick around. Dependent on if we do get a southerly feed how warm that would actually be. Perhaps blocking needs the warm influx to reinvigorate 

Yes, sadly Xmas is looking green, the breakdown is now well modelled for post World Cup final day
But a lot can happen before and perhaps we can squeeze out a UK high to keep it cold even if the jet rages over the top
 

The chart below famously delivered a White Christmas to central London in 1999.

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GFS:

Still has interest for the SE on Sunday.

This run has a breakdown modelled no differently from a date perspective, but has a full blow scandy high. We need to see the energy go south. It's a trend I'd like to see move in that direction. 

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The chart below famously delivered a White Christmas to central London in 1999.

Yes, I remember it well. The qoutes from the MetOffice or at least in the press where more change of Aliens landing on the Millenium dome
than a white Christmas lol.

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GFS has been consistent and bullish for a while now about a breakdown to milder Southerlies around the 17/18 December.

Quite remarkable consistency this far out. Hats off to the model if it gets this one right. 9 days away is miles off in terms of UK weather though. Would be no surprise to see the output change, prolonging the cold.  

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To look at the UKMO 144 hour chart you would think cold was locked in for a while, but the models all seem pretty keen to blow it away within a couple of days from that point.

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It's funny reading all the comments and then looking at deep FI section of the 06z GFS op run.

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Christmas Easterly anyone. That would be a brillaint evolution. Always rated the 06z highly tbh lol

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