theweatheroutlook

Brian Gaze
08 December 2022 15:58:03
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Geography really isn't our friend in the south of the UK is it?



I've not looked at it statistically, but on balance I'd say that here in the Chilterns we see a similar amount of snow to York which is about 180 miles further north. (I'm basing it on living here and regularly talking to people who still live up there). Things possibly "deteriorate" from the snow perspective more noticeably in counties south of London. Other people may disagree with this assessment. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
08 December 2022 16:00:33
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Whilst I wouldn't put you in the category of some folks who are clearly just on a windup, I do think you tend to get an idea stuck in your head and run with it regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

That in mind, what about this chart from the ICON says 'dry' to you? 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page



Plenty of snow at sea!
UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
08 December 2022 16:02:51
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Plenty of snow at sea!
UserPostedImage[/quote
]
Pfft, if that was accurate I'll eat Moomins cricket box.

And for another view, same model shows show having fallen over around half the UK by T120:-

UserPostedImage

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
moomin75
08 December 2022 16:07:55
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Whilst I wouldn't put you in the category of some folks who are clearly just on a windup, I do think you tend to get an idea stuck in your head and run with it regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

That in mind, what about this chart from the ICON says 'dry' to you? 

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What tells me it's dry is the precipitation charts on Meteociel. They are very dry indeed.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
08 December 2022 16:10:42
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

What tells me it's dry is the precipitation charts on Meteociel. They are very dry indeed.



I think people are getting mixed up here.  The reliable charts look very dry, the longer terms flip flop by the day and some look dry, the others not so.

The chart you have picked is from over a week away.  The Icon until that point only shows shower activity over the sea, and very little over land.

Therefor the onging mantra of it looking dry

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Hippydave
08 December 2022 16:19:23
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

What tells me it's dry is the precipitation charts on Meteociel. They are very dry indeed.



Hmmm, they're dry but I'd be surprised if they're picking up convective enhancement from that LP and the stronger NE flow. 

They do also show that there's not many places that haven't seen at least some precip by the end of the run, albeit small amounts. Given that's in essentially universally cold air too it suggests a decent chance of a slight covering for a fair few and a decent covering for some areas in the North. Even taking the charts (and their precip modelling) at face value it's not as dry as your posting suggests. 
 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
White Meadows
08 December 2022 16:23:51
Insane 12z 
Somewhere is going to get plastered.
in the broad scheme of things that is. No point in getting hung up on preci charts this far out 
Russwirral
08 December 2022 16:27:07
Some serious cold air appearing to our north on the GFS...

Theres a few models sniffing at this recently

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
08 December 2022 16:27:24
UKMO 144 hour chart almost has the look of classics from yesteryear. But no doubt someone is going to tell us that they've checked and it's drier than a salamander's flip flops.

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Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Brian Gaze
08 December 2022 16:31:30
Decent snow event at t+204 for London northwards.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Richard K
08 December 2022 16:36:17
Gfs totally goes for it sat 17th!
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Rob K
08 December 2022 16:37:01
Originally Posted by: Richard K 

Gfs totally goes for it sat 17th!


Nationwide power cuts ready for the WC final.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
08 December 2022 16:48:31
Originally Posted by: Richard K 

Gfs totally goes for it sat 17th!


Yes, that isn't bone dry 😂😂
Won't happen though. 🎄🥳
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
pthomps
08 December 2022 16:50:37
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Hmmm, they're dry but I'd be surprised if they're picking up convective enhancement from that LP and the stronger NE flow. 
 



Why? Isn't that the whole point of a computer model - I'd be surprised if it wasn't 😁
sunny coast
08 December 2022 16:57:23
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've not looked at it statistically, but on balance I'd say that here in the Chilterns we see a similar amount of snow to York which is about 180 miles further north. (I'm basing it on living here and regularly talking to people who still live up there). Things possibly "deteriorate" from the snow perspective more noticeably in counties south of London. Other people may disagree with this assessment. 




I'd agree with that generally although Kent can be an exception at times in a convective NE ly such as 87  or even an easterly  qhen east kent could get a dumping  but that was more common in the past than recent decades  examples Feb 54 and 56  Jan 85  
Hippydave
08 December 2022 17:01:45
Originally Posted by: pthomps 

Why? Isn't that the whole point of a computer model - I'd be surprised if it wasn't 😁



Depends. Most of the models are global so looking at the big picture, not relatively small features or even widespread small features. They're also pretty poor (even the higher res ones that are designed for looking for such things) at accurately modelling said features at more than 48 hours or so. 

So no, I wouldn't expect the models to be correctly factoring in things like convective enhancement from the LP at that range. 

All that said, the chart is 'FI' so unlikely to verify as shown and there's more to whether showers form than just LP being nearby so it's possible I'm totally wrong!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
fairweather
08 December 2022 17:01:57
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've not looked at it statistically, but on balance I'd say that here in the Chilterns we see a similar amount of snow to York which is about 180 miles further north. (I'm basing it on living here and regularly talking to people who still live up there). Things possibly "deteriorate" from the snow perspective more noticeably in counties south of London. Other people may disagree with this assessment. 


Sounds about right. M4 boundary for whatever reason.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
08 December 2022 17:03:43
Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Sounds about right. M4 boundary for whatever reason.

that's not what the that snow map shows. 
fairweather
08 December 2022 17:05:41
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Plenty of snow at sea!
UserPostedImage[/quote
]
Pfft, if that was accurate I'll eat Moomins cricket box.

And for another view, same model shows show having fallen over around half the UK by T120:-
...or Scotland as we call it 😀


UserPostedImage

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Joe Bloggs
08 December 2022 17:06:34
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Decent snow event at t+204 for London northwards.

UserPostedImage



Drier than a nun's chuff. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
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