Hippydave
07 December 2022 22:00:46
Talking of little features cropping up GFS has a little area of precip run in to Hampshire/IOW and along the coast earlyish Sunday morning. Suspect it will disappear on the next run but shows the potential is there for enhanced areas of precip.

Before then there's (as per the MetO forecasts) a little feature that runs down the North Sea coastline from Southern Scotland, fizzling before it gets to Norfolk.

Bigger picture and if I had to guess I'd say the 18z Op is going to stall the LP in the Atlantic and decay it.

Edit: Brian beat me to it on the Sunday thing!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
ballamar
07 December 2022 22:22:27
Now there’s a shock some features cropping up in this set up which is why any bone dry comments need to be put into context
Joe Bloggs
07 December 2022 22:48:11
18z is a shocker, I’d imagine top of the ens. Fine until the extended range.

An observation - it is currently -4C here, notably colder than any of the forecasts for this time frame. Similar last night. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 22:52:30
I doubt many people would see this chart and think "an all time classic snow event". 😂😂

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
07 December 2022 22:53:58
Here is the corresponding precipitation type forecast chart. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Karl Guille
07 December 2022 23:23:36
More runs extending the cold IMBY on the short ensembles, albeit little likelihood of any snow this far south!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2022120718/graphe3_00000_220_247___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Arbroath 1320
07 December 2022 23:30:12
GFS 12z & 18z runs beginning to come on board in prolonging the cold.

Met long range forecast today has clear signals for the cold to last, at least in the North, until January. One of the most bullish, cold outlooks I've seen from the Met over the years. 

Most cold lovers of course are craving snow, but this is shaping up to be a very prolonged period of Winter cold temperatures across the UK regardless. 
GGTTH
fairweather
07 December 2022 23:50:27
BBC tonight forecasting widespread freezing fog for the weekend. 🙄
S.Essex, 42m ASL
CreweCold
08 December 2022 00:08:35
Originally Posted by: fairweather 

BBC tonight forecasting widespread freezing fog for the weekend. 🙄


Freezing fog is great at this time of year, When it lifts you're left with a landscape painted white.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Jiries
08 December 2022 01:40:30
Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Freezing fog is great at this time of year, When it lifts you're left with a landscape painted white.



Only once I seen it in Dec 1991 but rest sent temps flying high as over 10C rise once fog descend and wreck havac on my low temps data.  If they are forecasting freezing then temps should carry  on dropping.   I rather have snow than fog.  Weird models lately for showing LP over us but no snow.
Rob K
08 December 2022 01:49:14
Originally Posted by: Viking3 

That model seems very prone to have very low temperatures! The same chart on the UKV model for 0400 tomorrow morning has typically -2 to -5 in the area where that chart shows -15. It has a long way to go!


Well at 1am it was already -6C in southern England (eg Benson) 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
08 December 2022 05:08:21
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well at 1am it was already -6C in southern England (eg Benson) 



So, not only did it show overnight mínima in the NW Highlands far too low for the localised coldest spots, it also showed them far too high for the coldest places in England. Although to be fair many of the models had the latter issue.
nsrobins
08 December 2022 06:40:16
High risk, high gain is the buzz phrase again, with EC especially playing with a snowstorm but a small change and its rain into the south. All good fun.
PS: GFS again out of kilter with its suite. The mean is much colder longer term than the OP.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 06:44:29
ECM pushes the low pressure quite far north which is a good thing if you want snow. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
08 December 2022 06:48:02
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM pushes the low pressure quite far north which is a good thing if you want snow.

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
08 December 2022 06:56:15
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 



ECM this morning is what we want though certainly for the southern third of the UK.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
08 December 2022 06:58:10
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

A long way off, and largely all charts point to continued bone dry weather ahead. 



yawn change the record - you have your phrase you want to impose and I will say now it’s wrong
moomin75
08 December 2022 06:59:27
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

yawn change the record - you have your phrase you want to impose and I will say now it’s wrong

Time will tell.​​​​​​​A virtual pint says I will be right. 😂  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
08 December 2022 07:03:42
However *if* the ECM 0Z verified, I will be buried in snow late next week with around 25cm showing on the precipitation charts.
 ​​​​​​​Marcus, best get your snow shoes ready.​​​​​​​I will take a punt and say it's not going to happen though.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
08 December 2022 07:09:02
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Time will tell.A virtual pint says I will be right. 😂  



​​​​​​​just remember your summer prediction- pretty sure you said you would be right then we all know what happened
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