Always rated GEM, those canadian know how to forecast snow.

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Actually had a few great falls from front moving in from the W/SW/S. Pretty sure Jan 82 was one such occasion. Front stalled, then was pushed back. We had szeveral hours of moderate to heavy snow. By morning, it had a frozen crust on it and was about 20cm deep,

I should have specified my part of NW England to be fair. Merseyside can fair better. 

Although we get clobbered in Feb 1996. Ideally we need low heights and the LIGHTEST of easterly drifts. 

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If, and granted it's still a very big If, we get a decent fall of snow here in the Southwest then I wonder if it will cause more havoc than usual. About 25% of the trees down here are still in full leaf (unusual for this time of year) and so, especially if the snow is the wet sticky kind, I'd expect to see a lot of branches down. 
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An hour ago TWO had me down for lashings of snow on Saturday but now it’s back to dry!!! Gah!!!

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An hour ago TWO had me down for lashings of snow on Saturday but now it’s back to dry!!! Gah!!!

At least it's not mild and wet.

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If, and granted it's still a very big If, we get a decent fall of snow here in the Southwest then I wonder if it will cause more havoc than usual. About 25% of the trees down here are still in full leaf (unusual for this time of year) and so, especially if the snow is the wet sticky kind, I'd expect to see a lot of branches down. 
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No worries - it'll be dry powder and drifting, at least it will be back at your old house! 😂❄️

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I should have specified my part of NW England to be fair. Merseyside can fair better. 

Although we get clobbered in Feb 1996. Ideally we need low heights and the LIGHTEST of easterly drifts. 

I think Manchester did rather OK in Jan 82 as well, Joe 

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ECM keeps the low away from us and keeps us cold, but pretty much bone dry still.

This will become a very boring spell of weather with no chance of any snow.

Very frustrating really.

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ECM keeps the low away from us and keeps us cold, but pretty much bone dry still.

This will become a very boring spell of weather with no chance of any snow.

Very frustrating really.

You keep repeating the same line. As you know features will not be picked up at this range.

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You keep repeating the same line. As you know features will not be picked up at this range.

I am just listening to the excellent Alex Deakin on the Met Office 10 day trend and he pretty much says the same thing.

​​​​​​​A 30% (but in my view a diminishing) chance of snow from the southwest, but at least a 70% chance of it staying dry and cold. 

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ECM keeps the low away from us and keeps us cold, but pretty much bone dry still.

This will become a very boring spell of weather with no chance of any snow.

Very frustrating really.

Surely that setup at 168-192 would deliver snow?

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May I be the first to congratulate the EC on getting the correct solution at last! 😂😂

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I am just listening to the excellent Alex Deakin on the Met Office 10 day trend and he pretty much says the same thing.

A 30% (but in my view a diminishing) chance of snow from the southwest, but at least a 70% chance of it staying dry and cold. 

I can't remember the year, but there was a period where no snow was in the forecast. And then with 48hrs the models picked up on a low spinning up. Central southern England got buried. 

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Surely that setup at 168-192 would deliver snow?

Lightyears away in forecasting terms, so not worth consideration other than for the sheer fact it's there at the moment. If it's still there in FAX chart range then it gets interesting. I bet it won't be though, or not as shown, given the sheer length of time until then

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lol Joe. I've never known a Channel low to deliver here. I've heard 1881 was quite good though ! 

The Daddy back in Feb 1978 was expected to bury us here in SE Kent. It slipped southwards of here and left us high and dry. The January 1982 event was also due to dump on us. It moved 20 miles too far north and a warm sector crept in giving 20mm of rain and 5c temperatures for a few hours instead. 

I need an unstable NE'ly as much as you need an unstable westerly. 😀
 

Glad it’s not just me who prefers the convective stuff Steve 😂😂

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I can't remember the year, but there was a period where no snow was in the forecast. And then with 48hrs the models picked up on a low spinning up. Central southern England got buried. 

I remember these channel lows changing direction last minute and the French get a damping. I suspect this will miss us again and clear to the south of theUK with perhaps jersey getting some decent snow.

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Lightyears away in forecasting terms, so not worth consideration other than for the sheer fact it's there at the moment. If it's still there in FAX chart range then it gets interesting. I bet it won't be though, or not as shown, given the sheer length of time until then

Same applies the opposite way, too. Just because a snowy feature isn't showing at +168 doesn't mean there won't be one. 

😋

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GEM still picking up some snow for E areas on Saturday.

Alot of people really swear by this model and how it so accurately predicts patches of vorticity asociated with features or enhanced shower activity.
 

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Arpege showing snow on Friday in parts of southern and central England. 

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So, tonight is the first chance to put the hi-res U.K. Met Office model to the test. Will it reach -15°C in parts of Scotland tonight? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukguk/12_16_2m_min_temp.png  

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