It's not perfect but a big improvement on the 00Z that went to +180. I find the 12Z ICON to be a signpost for the EC to follow. 
Good start to the afternoon's entertainment.

Only out to +93 but an increased thrust of cold into mainland Europe (and less cold air to the far north of us) would be a worrying trend. I hate us being under milder crap when Central Europe goes into the freezer.

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ICON is a stunning run . Much better than the 0z

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I think Saint and I are keenest for an unstable, cold westerly flow with beefy showers moving in from the Irish Sea a la Dec 2009, Jan 2010 etc.

There were hints of this in earlier output but it seems to have died a death since then.

The chance of an easterly with a front coming up from the south just makes me let out one big NIMBY sigh, but appreciate it gives you lovely southerners something to salivate over. It just never delivers for this part of the world. The best of both worlds would be great. 

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I think I speak for all when I say, "Who knows" 😁

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The entertaining continues, lead by the old joker GFS which is lining up an old school easterly at about the same time as the blowdryer southerly it had on the 12Z.
GEM is a frigid run throughout.
The 10 day UKM video outlook is very interesting and informative.

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I think Saint and I are keenest for an unstable, cold westerly flow with beefy showers moving in from the Irish Sea a la Dec 2009, Jan 2010 etc.

There were hints of this in earlier output but it seems to have died a death since then.

The chance of an easterly with a front coming up from the south just makes me let out one big NIMBY sigh, but appreciate it gives you lovely southerners something to salivate over. It just never delivers for this part of the world. The best of both worlds would be great. 

lol Joe. I've never known a Channel low to deliver here. I've heard 1881 was quite good though ! 

The Daddy back in Feb 1978 was expected to bury us here in SE Kent. It slipped southwards of here and left us high and dry. The January 1982 event was also due to dump on us. It moved 20 miles too far north and a warm sector crept in giving 20mm of rain and 5c temperatures for a few hours instead. 

I need an unstable NE'ly as much as you need an unstable westerly. 😀
 

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GFS much better for prolonged cold.  Looking at a bigger picture and you can see the beginnings of another Pink cold plunge from the arctic.

Short term - snow events in short offering.  But I wouldnt be surprised if one or two locations - even away from hills, had a fairly signifcant localised event from this.  Just too many little (Currently) seemingingly insignificant events yet to resolve.  If snow showers stall, there could be locally 2-3" falling for some I reckon.

 

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GFS much better for prolonged cold.  Looking at a bigger picture and you can see the beginnings of another Pink cold plunge from the arctic.

Short term - snow events in short offering.  But I wouldnt be surprised if one or two locations - even away from hills, had a fairly signifcant localised event from this.  Just too many little (Currently) seemingingly insignificant events yet to resolve.  If snow showers stall, there could be locally 2-3" falling for some I reckon.

 

Update - Arpege giving some credit to my post, just saw Sunday for Oxfordshire... 

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I think Saint and I are keenest for an unstable, cold westerly flow with beefy showers moving in from the Irish Sea a la Dec 2009, Jan 2010 etc.

There were hints of this in earlier output but it seems to have died a death since then.

The chance of an easterly with a front coming up from the south just makes me let out one big NIMBY sigh, but appreciate it gives you lovely southerners something to salivate over. It just never delivers for this part of the world. The best of both worlds would be great. 

Hi Joe 🙂

In mid-January 2018 we had about five or six days in a row of frequent and fairly heavy snow showers where I live which gave a covering of a few centimetres. I think one of my fellow Scottish-based members on here commented at the time that the synoptic set-up at that time was a bit reminiscent of the same month back in 1984, which I believe saw quite a lot of snow from the west in my part of the world.

On topic, and the battle to resolve what happens early next week going forwards continues. GFS 12z op seems to want to build a HP over Scandnavia which holds the LP in the altantic at bay, as far as 264hrs.

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GFS showing why Scandi Highs can often be over-rated (although on this one, the mixing out of the cold upper air does seem a bit extreme), they usually are unstable and lead to the return to mild conditions.  I would much prefer a re-newed push of cold from the NE (Like GEM). 

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Although GFS does still have it cold at the surface.

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Still looking virtually universally dry for thr foreseeable future. ​​​​​​​Yes there may be little features cropping up, but looks highly unlikely.​​​​​​​In fact, Louise Lear has just said "very low chance of snow away from northern Scotland".​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I do like crisp, bright, sunny days, but I wouldn't mind seeing a bit of snow.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Dry and cold becomes very boring very quickly.​​​​​​​
        

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All very nice to look at but the elephant in the room is the fact that it is a little too early in the season.  Beggars can't be choosers though.

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The 12z GFS op FI solution of a sinking Scandi high whilst looking a bit odd in how quickly it punts the cold uppers out of the way is very cold at the surface still (upto T321)- okay not exciting weather but would lead to one of the longer cold spells in recent years. No real sign of the Atlantic waking up either.

Given the ongoing volatility with the Atlantic LP, I imagine the ens will have a fair bit of scatter again, particularly IMBY, and no doubt the 18z op will come up with something very different🙄

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There's been a slight westwards realignment of that Feature 1, as it was due to hit NW England as well up to last night. Wouldn't surprise me if it shifted westwards again.

I'm clutching at Arpege now 😁
Generally the West seems to fair better in recent decades,  with the exception of the Beast from the East. Used to be the S.E, East Anglia and the N.E, although the latter still does better.

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Still looking virtually universally dry for thr foreseeable future. ​​​​​​​Yes there may be little features cropping up, but looks highly unlikely.​​​​​​​In fact, Louise Lear has just said "very low chance of snow away from northern Scotland".​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I do like crisp, bright, sunny days, but I wouldn't mind seeing a bit of snow.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Dry and cold becomes very boring very quickly.​​​​​​​
        

From what I have read about it, February 1986 was a classic example which although very cold throughout, was a mostly dry month across much of the UK, although I think there was some snow in places at times but nothing major.

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All very nice to look at but the elephant in the room is the fact that it is a little too early in the season.  Beggars can't be choosers though.

I can remember northerlies delivering decent snowfall in late November and early December when I was much younger.   Whether it's the effect of background warming over the last 50+ years or just the synoptic pattern not being quite right, who knows, but it certainly used to be possible.

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The chance of an easterly with a front coming up from the south just makes me let out one big NIMBY sigh, but appreciate it gives you lovely southerners something to salivate over. It just never delivers for this part of the world. The best of both worlds would be great. 

You are right Joe, but don't worry, that scenario hasn't happened here for ten years and rarely in the last 30 😒

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I think Saint and I are keenest for an unstable, cold westerly flow with beefy showers moving in from the Irish Sea a la Dec 2009, Jan 2010 etc.

There were hints of this in earlier output but it seems to have died a death since then.

The chance of an easterly with a front coming up from the south just makes me let out one big NIMBY sigh, but appreciate it gives you lovely southerners something to salivate over. It just never delivers for this part of the world. The best of both worlds would be great. 

Actually had a few great falls from front moving in from the W/SW/S. Pretty sure Jan 82 was one such occasion. Front stalled, then was pushed back. We had szeveral hours of moderate to heavy snow. By morning, it had a frozen crust on it and was about 20cm deep,

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A quick skeg of the GEFS suggests far fewer milder solutions from 180 than the previous few - the line charts will probably look more solidly cold.
My personal favourite of this evenings offerings in Pert. 12 😎
(Note - 180 is way past the cliff of uncertainty but you can't help looking)

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