Qute snowy in ECM fi and staying cold, locally very cold.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_174_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_180_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_240_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

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To be honest nothing has really changed since a few days ago. All quite simple really. 

The cold air is arriving today as forecast. We can now expect several days of dry and cold weather with wintry showers on windward coastal areas where moisture can be tapped into and if any disturbances can get involved eleswehere (only usuallly visible at 48 hours). Notably cold nights as well ! 

The middle of next week has always looked like the period for an atlantic push from the SW. If it's a strong push we eventually turn milder from the south. If it stays away to the south we stay very cold. A narrow battleground snow event on offer for some if the front does get close enough.

I think all of this is great. I'd love to see the first atlantic push repelled by the cold block keeping us potentially wintry for another week or so as we edge closer to Xmas. Some snow would also be the icing on the cake.

 


 

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To be honest nothing has really changed since a few days ago. All quite simple really. 

The cold air is arriving today as forecast. We can now expect several days of dry and cold weather with wintry showers on windward coastal areas where moisture can be tapped into and if any disturbances can get involved eleswehere (only usuallly visible at 48 hours). Notably cold nights as well ! 

The middle of next week has always looked like the period for an atlantic push from the SW. If it's a strong push we eventually turn milder from the south. If it stays away to the south we stay very cold. A narrow battleground snow event on offer for some if the front does get close enough.

I think all of this is great. I'd love to see the first atlantic push repelled by the cold block keeping us potentially wintry for another week or so as we edge closer to Xmas. Some snow would also be the icing on the cake.

 

Ideal scenario is that frontal snow pushes pretty far up the country to cover as much as possible, before stalling and being pushed back southwards (I know it would be snow-rain-snow for those further south)

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I've been posting on this site since Brian fired it up in 2000 and experience tells me that if the GFS op shows a cold spell going t1ts up in two consecutive runs, then it will go t1ts up. I realise that there will be several days of cold before the t1ts up moment before Michael points this out!

I think many people could point that out before jumping straight to the area with lower confidence and making a guess based on limited evidence from 2 operational runs of one model.

Unsurprisingly the 06z GFS op run is a mild outlier in the medium to long term, with the t850hPa being over ten degress above the mean by the 29th (in London).

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I think many people could point that out before jumping straight to the area with lower confidence and making a guess based on limited evidence from 2 operational runs of one model.

Unsurprisingly the 06z GFS op run is a mild outlier in the medium to long term, with the t850hPa being over ten degress above the mean by the 29th (in London).

I mentioned the mean just now but I think I got away with it :)
Justin has a point - when GFS OP goes off on a different tack it should be noted but I'm not so sure if it's a given it will have got this right for the reasons previously stated ad nauseum.
The period in question has yet to get to 120hrs.

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 Meteociel's WRF runs are down? Does anyone know any other website that produces high res WRF runs? (preferably <3km)

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Tommorow's snow. Other than N Scotland + coasts. There are two features likely to cause some snowfall.

Feature 1:

Snow affecting N Ireland, most of Wales during the morning, eventualy parts of Devon in the evening


Feature 2:

Snow affecting much of Scotland during the morning, and parts of N England by the afternoon/evening

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Annoying that Meteociel has a server problem. I know Brian has a wealth of model info and charts available which are great on a computer but when I am on mobile I find Meteociel much easier to read and select charts. (Sorry Brian!)

However from what I can see, the GFS is still being the Grinch on the 6Z. 

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Annoying that Meteociel has a server problem. I know Brian has a wealth of model info and charts available which are great on a computer but when I am on mobile I find Meteociel much easier to read and select charts. (Sorry Brian!)

However from what I can see, the GFS is still being the Grinch on the 6Z. 

It is, but the suite have eased back to a colder solution from 14th which appears to be the point where the models differ.

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Annoying that Meteociel has a server problem. I know Brian has a wealth of model info and charts available which are great on a computer but when I am on mobile I find Meteociel much easier to read and select charts. (Sorry Brian!)

However from what I can see, the GFS is still being the Grinch on the 6Z. 

No probs, but I find Meteociel more difficult to use on smartphone than TWO. Which links do you use out of interest?

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Having to scroll those radio buttoms on meteocil is hard on a mobile unless Rob has found a better way

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No probs, but I find Meteociel more difficult to use on smartphone than TWO. Which links do you use out of interest?

I just use this: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php  (not currently working). 

I like two things about it from a usability point of view: 
1) the way you can just slowly swipe your finger down the time intervals on the left and animate the charts at whatever speed you like (assuming you have a fast enough connection)
2) it's very easy to compare T on the new run with T+6 on the previous run as the run updates (at the point where the coloured dots change colour) and flick between them to see what's changed. 

in sure there are ways to do this on TWO but I'm a creature of habit! (I always used WZ for many years before I swapped over to Meteociel).

When I'm on a big screen I use the TWO chart viewer as there is much more detail available, but for a quick overview of the models on my phone I like Meteociel. 

On TWO I find I have to scrolll a long way to access the different time frame buttons. Maybe I'm using it wrong!

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The lead up to 2010 cold spell on the charts was massively different to now. 

Heavy Weather mentioned why Retron hasn't commented  onthis cold spell so far. Normally he'd do a -10 850hpa or more ens watch,  apart from the odd ens that briefly touch -10  and so far there is very little sign of much snow away from the hills and costs in the North. Any charts are still at 6+ days away that show any decent snowfall and are random with little to any ens or X model support. It may change but so far it's just a cold and mostly dry spell of Weather, nothing much to write home about for now. 

Darren (Retron) and I are only interested in the 1980's cold setup when subzero temps and snow come on the first day than this faux less cold spell with a frost which temperatures are nothing wow about.  Hope next week LP get cancelled and push south to avoid cold rain here.   For now will rely on sunshine to reduce my heating usage and cost the same as it during mild zonal weather and not long for the shortest day to come to start drawing out.  

I noticed on the Met Office automated temps seem to rise tomorrow afternoon briefly along with a slight disturbance bringing risk of showers to NE areas of England.  Can see the warmer uppers here: 



So any showers could be quite marginal unfortunately for NE counties of England. 
 

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Snow starting to appear on my iPhone/IBM model. Starting from Saturday.

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Tommorow's snow. Other than N Scotland + coasts. There are two features likely to cause some snowfall.

Feature 1:

Snow affecting N Ireland, most of Wales during the morning, eventualy parts of Devon in the evening

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Feature 2:

Snow affecting much of Scotland during the morning, and parts of N England by the afternoon/evening

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

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There's been a slight westwards realignment of that Feature 1, as it was due to hit NW England as well up to last night. Wouldn't surprise me if it shifted westwards again.

I'm clutching at Arpege now 😁

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There's been a slight westwards realignment of that Feature 1, as it was due to hit NW England as well up to last night. Wouldn't surprise me if it shifted westwards again.

I'm clutching at Arpege now 😁

Jiries will not be impressed with the scraps on offer!

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ICON out to 144 and it is sliding. Only issue is positive tilt, so throwing milder up ahead of the system.

I think Brian needs to give his server a kick, already out to 180 on Metoceil and a pretty epic northerly by that point.

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ICON out to 144 and it is sliding. Only issue is positive tilt, so throwing milder up ahead of the system.

I think Biran needs to give his server a kick, already out to 180 on Metoceil and a pretty epic northerly by that point.

It's not perfect but a big improvement on the 00Z that went to +180. I find the 12Z ICON to be a signpost for the EC to follow. 
Good start to the afternoon's entertainment.

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Jiries will not be impressed with the scraps on offer!

Will it be illegal?

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