Decent output this morning.  Even some heat appearing in about 7 days. ECM pick of the bunch.

Day 10 ECM is boiling. Temps potentially well into the 30s if that verified.

But as per usual, GFS is showing the complete opposite at the same time frame with a cool trough parked right over the top of the UK and temps probably 12 to 16c.

A change of pattern in the WX summary today; week 1 shows the zonal distribution of temps continue, with warmth a little further north, but in week 2 this appears unstable with warmth pushing ahead over England and Finland while coolth remains over Norway and W Russia. Dry over Med and up through W Europe to Baltic with rain elsewhere incl. W Scotland; week 2 the dry(-ish) area is centred on Finland with a horseshoe of heavier rain all around (incl Britain)

Jet as yesterday with a collection of streaks and loops never far from Britain; least active around Tue 14th

GFS Op showing LPs moving E-wards from Atlantic (Sat 11th 980mb Rockall, Sun 19th 1000 mb Scotland with trough well south, Sat 25th 980mb Fair Isle) with HP pushing up from the S in between these events but never centred close to Britain. An ex-hurricane off New England Fri 17th makes no progress but may boost activity.

GEFS in the S/SE warm around Sat 18th (op & control v warm) which doesn't match the synoptics well, otherwise temp near seasonal norm; a little rain a couple of days before this and more frequently after. In the N/NW cooler at first and just a hint of warmth around the 18th; rain likely at any time. Other areas on a gradient between these extremes.

ECM like GFS at first but then the LP Sun19th stands off to the W allowing HP 1020mb Belgium and warm air from the S - corresponds to GEFS

GEFS 00z update contains a few #blowtorch runs this morning. A couple approaching (or reaching stats gurus?) record breaking heat at the 850hPa level for the UK, but MAJORITY of runs are nowhere near as extreme https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/QFKyV5StaV

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 9, 2022

Slowly but surely yes.

Day 10 ECM is boiling. Temps potentially well into the 30s if that verified.

But as per usual, GFS is showing the complete opposite at the same time frame with a cool trough parked right over the top of the UK and temps probably 12 to 16c.

 

Yes ECM is probably unlikely but the next 7 days look pretty good , especially for the southern third of the UK. So much heat in Spain and France already so any southerly will be scorchio if we can get one.

 

Yes ECM is probably unlikely but the next 7 days look pretty good , especially for the southern third of the UK. So much heat in Spain and France already so any southerly will be scorchio if we can get one.

 

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

 

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

Really? That is borderline madness. It is almost a given in the current climate. Even poor summers hit 30C comfortably enough.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Decent output this morning.  Even some heat appearing in about 7 days. ECM pick of the bunch.

We extremely well overdue for warmth and since no trust at all on the models is to see it yourself by checking outside to feel the warmth. Not seen over 21C yet here and recent 21C feel very warm factor after having cold temps recently.  Told my wife that 21C used to feel cool factor when we had temps often from 23C to 34C in the past with odd days of 19C or over during short unsettled spell.

 

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

I don't remember any particularly hot spells in 2021, but 30c is almost a given most years, particularly in southern England.

 

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

So far in this latest complete non-event which is known as this so-called "summer", we haven't even been able to get to 20°C here in Edinburgh, let alone 30°C.

However, I'm sure that the southerners will get their usual temperatures of over 30°C before too much longer.

 

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

These days, it doesnt take much to get to 30. Even today, it feels pretty sub tropical out there

I agree this is pretty absurd, but IIRC it was a bit of a struggle to get there last summer?

I don't remember any particularly hot spells in 2021, but 30c is almost a given most years, particularly in southern England.

I'm not sure anyone is writing off the chance of a 30c are they? As that would be highly unusual even 50 years ago not to get a 30c.

But as you say last Summer didn't really have any notable high temperatures and so far this Summer we are struggling a bit for especially high temperatures. I don't think we can just take it as a given that every Summer will be mega hot nowadays like some people on here seem to think.

 

I'm not sure anyone is writing off the chance of a 30c are they? As that would be highly unusual even 50 years ago not to get a 30c.

But as you say last Summer didn't really have any notable high temperatures and so far this Summer we are struggling a bit for especially high temperatures. I don't think we can just take it as a given that every Summer will be mega hot nowadays like some people on here seem to think.

 

Yes. Yes they are. Quite remarkable comments sometimes on here.

 

There is strong evidence of a major pattern change having taken place and it is looking increasingly likely the uk will be experiencing a few months of average to below average temps with above average rainfall. There has been some significant cooling in many parts of the world.I would not be surprised if 30c was not reached in the uk this year.

Blowtorch runs are back. Early days but maybe some interesting weather on the way.

Not exactly seeing the best set-up for long-term summer conditions for the whole of the UK

 

Yes. Yes they are. Quite remarkable comments sometimes on here.

 

 

 

Well you may mock them now but it's not beyond the realm of possibility, 2007 and 2008 only just scraped 30c. However there's only been 5 or 6 years in the past 50 years where 30c has not been reached so it's highly unlikely.

Well for what it's worth the GFS 6z is showing 30c this time next week. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=177&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Lol gotta love the GFS 6z temps for next week 

Thursday 30c

Friday 33c

Saturday 32c

Lol gotta love the GFS 6z temps for next week 

Thursday 30c

Friday 33c

Saturday 32c

One to watch....but still a long way off.

GFS still relatively short lived, but at that range, it's all up in the air in any case.

Lol gotta love the GFS 6z temps for next week 

Thursday 30c

Friday 33c

Saturday 32c

Pretty localised, though.

And short-lived. By the Monday, temps are showing as plummeting back to 16-18c, with a small low tracking across the heart of England, then a big fat one anchoring off Western Scotland.

 

 

Pretty localised, though.

And short-lived. By the Monday, temps are showing as plummeting back to 16-18c, with a small low tracking across the heart of England, then a big fat one anchoring off Western Scotland.

 

As I posted a couple of pages back, that would fit with the recent trend of summers with short but intense heatwaves. Still enough to effortlessly reach low to mid 30s though these days.