A change of pattern in the WX summary today; week 1 shows the zonal distribution of temps continue, with warmth a little further north, but in week 2 this appears unstable with warmth pushing ahead over England and Finland while coolth remains over Norway and W Russia. Dry over Med and up through W Europe to Baltic with rain elsewhere incl. W Scotland; week 2 the dry(-ish) area is centred on Finland with a horseshoe of heavier rain all around (incl Britain)
Jet as yesterday with a collection of streaks and loops never far from Britain; least active around Tue 14th
GFS Op showing LPs moving E-wards from Atlantic (Sat 11th 980mb Rockall, Sun 19th 1000 mb Scotland with trough well south, Sat 25th 980mb Fair Isle) with HP pushing up from the S in between these events but never centred close to Britain. An ex-hurricane off New England Fri 17th makes no progress but may boost activity.
GEFS in the S/SE warm around Sat 18th (op & control v warm) which doesn't match the synoptics well, otherwise temp near seasonal norm; a little rain a couple of days before this and more frequently after. In the N/NW cooler at first and just a hint of warmth around the 18th; rain likely at any time. Other areas on a gradient between these extremes.
ECM like GFS at first but then the LP Sun19th stands off to the W allowing HP 1020mb Belgium and warm air from the S - corresponds to GEFS
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Chichester 12m asl