WX summary temps continue to show a zonal pattern - hot S of the Alps, warm across N Europe, cool further N including most of Britain and Scandinavia (albeit with a cold pool in week 1 at the N end of the Urals). For week 1 there is a dry-ish area from the Channel up to the Baltic and properly dry in the W Med; week 2 the dry bit of the Med is further E; otherwise rain well distributed across Europe both weeks.
GFS Op - shallow LP over S Britain for the start of this week overtaken by deep LP 970mb Fri 10th off W Scotland which moves past N Scotland and introduces a W-ly flow, reinforced Fri 17th by LP 985mb Rockall but this moves S and after a brief deepening becomes a trough covering Britain from the N by Mon 20th (as far as E Anglia 1000mb). Even by Thu 23rd a new LP NW Scotland keeps Britain under the influence of the NW Atlantic.
GEFS - mean temps near norm for the forecast period though quite a lot of variation between ens members setting in early (Mon 13th) and any outliers on the warm side. Rainfall pattern in a gradient from the SE (dry ca Fri 10th, small amounts of rain at other times) to the NW (a couple of dry days at first then moderate amounts of rain continuously). No big spikes typical of thunderstorms.
ECM - similar to GFS though the LP on Fri 17th stays further off allowing a general rise of pressure across all but the far NW of Britain
The Highlands have had their week of good weather; from now on the common summer pattern of mostly pleasant usable weather in S & E, pick your moment to dodge the rain in the N & W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl