The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2022 10:40:43
moomin75
10 June 2022 10:46:04


90f in the SE on Friday afternoon 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=177&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


Then maybe some sleet over northern hills sunday night. 


Laughable form GFS 6z 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=234&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Laughable maybe, but definitely can't be discounted as its been robustly modelling an Autumnal style long lasting low pressure over the last several runs.


That is now being brought closer suggests it is more likely than not, especially when you add Sod's Law into proceedings.


Fully anticipating a disturbed and very cool period after the middle to end of next week.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2022 10:59:34


Laughable maybe, but definitely can't be discounted as its been robustly modelling an Autumnal style long lasting low pressure over the last several runs.


That is now being brought closer suggests it is more likely than not, especially when you add Sod's Law into proceedings.


Fully anticipating a disturbed and very cool period after the middle to end of next week.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Its definitely a theme. But the chances GFS has this right at 9 days is pretty low. Models tend to over do northern blocking especially recently.  My hunch is the low will be pushed east much quicker. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
10 June 2022 11:01:42


 


Its definitely a theme. But the chances GFS has this right at 9 days is pretty low. Models tend to over do northern blocking especially recently.  My hunch is the low will be pushed east much quicker. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Except, ECM 0Z was showing pretty much the same, with almost storm force winds in the North West.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2022 11:03:14


Laughable maybe, but definitely can't be discounted as its been robustly modelling an Autumnal style long lasting low pressure over the last several runs.


That is now being brought closer suggests it is more likely than not, especially when you add Sod's Law into proceedings.


Fully anticipating a disturbed and very cool period after the middle to end of next week.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Not sure where Katie Collier in the Dorset Echo is getting her weekend UK heatwave from. Certainly not the Met Office models.


Met Office forecasts predict UK summer heatwave this weekend with 23C highs


Temperatures are predicted to reach 22C on June 10 and 11 while June 12 and 13 will also deliver the heat with temperatures hitting 21C in London sic


https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/20200295.met-office-forecasts-predict-uk-summer-heatwave-weekend-23c-highs/


Should be in media thread or perhaps media training. But then she's a SEO Journalist and that's what counts not the accuracy of a story.

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2022 11:08:43


Except, ECM 0Z was showing pretty much the same, with almost storm force winds in the North West.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes most models have low pressure at day 9/10. Be an interesting test to see how they do. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
idj20
10 June 2022 12:01:00

At least the latest batch of runs showing the sudden re-appearance of low pressure over the UK and the huge temperature contrast by the following weekend has got everyone talking about the weather in here.   

Looks like a case of making the most of next week's Summer like weather before it all go crashing down once again. An example of "three fine days and a thunderstorm". 

Folkestone Harbour. 
moomin75
10 June 2022 12:08:38


At least the latest batch of runs showing the sudden re-appearance of low pressure over the UK and the huge temperature contrast by the following weekend has got everyone talking about the weather in here.   

Looks like a case of making the most of next week's Summer like weather before it all go crashing down once again. An example of "three fine days and a thunderstorm". 


Originally Posted by: idj20 

More like three fine days and then Autumn sets in 🤣🤣🤣

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Taylor1740
10 June 2022 12:13:00
It all seems a bit overdone by the models to me, something which often happens in the extended range. I'm expecting both the brief hot spell and subsequent autumnal deluge to moderate quite a bit as we get nearer the time.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Rob K
10 June 2022 13:15:24


 


Not sure where Katie Collier in the Dorset Echo is getting her weekend UK heatwave from. Certainly not the Met Office models.


Met Office forecasts predict UK summer heatwave this weekend with 23C highs


Temperatures are predicted to reach 22C on June 10 and 11 while June 12 and 13 will also deliver the heat with temperatures hitting 21C in London sic


https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/20200295.met-office-forecasts-predict-uk-summer-heatwave-weekend-23c-highs/


Should be in media thread or perhaps media training. But then she's a SEO Journalist and that's what counts not the accuracy of a story.


Originally Posted by: NMA 


Since when did 23C in mid June count as a heatwave? 21C in London is surely more or less bang on average for the time of year!



Back to the charts, ECM is fun today with 22C 850mb temps which then drop about 16-18C in less than 24 hours!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2022 13:17:17


I don't want to change the world, just want a climate like New England. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Easy to do - just need to reverse the Earth's direct of spin  


Originally Posted by: Essan 

Or change the song’s lyrics!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2022 13:26:51


 


Since when did 23C in mid June count as a heatwave? 21C in London is surely more or less bang on average for the time of year!



Back to the charts, ECM is fun today with 22C 850mb temps which then drop about 16-18C in less than 24 hours!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Quite. A bit like in the winter when mentioning an ‘Arctic blast’ with temps ‘plunging’ to 0C. As I said she’s a SEO specialist with her earnings based on clicks perhaps but maybe she didn’t do that well in science at school.


It’s a pleasant enough 21C this afternoon but I’m still wearing a sweater in the office over a shirt.

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Polar Low
10 June 2022 15:28:29

More agreement from 6z gfs members southern and s/e very warm becoming hot >31c more members now grouping for the 17th


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0


some starting to sniff a hot spell later which I expected 


 

Polar Low
10 June 2022 16:33:23

Nice gfs extension of heat s/districts 90f probable Fr Sat Sun as expected 


34c given on Sat


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/192h.htm


 


ukmo looking good also


 

Polar Low
10 June 2022 16:41:54

June record 35.6 under serious threat from this ukmo 168 chart


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php

Polar Low
10 June 2022 16:51:32

Control also putting the after burner on stonking hot chart a dream for Jires


 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=150&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0


 


 


 


 

moomin75
10 June 2022 16:54:56
More importantly to me is the less ridiculous dramatic cool off and 12z is instead showing the HP repositioning itself as a mid Atlantic high, meaning that the stupid Autumnal low doesn't get in, and instead we return to around average of 21c after a brief hot spell.
More like it. More runs needed.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
10 June 2022 17:04:16

GFS hitting maximum overdrive.  You wouldn't rule out 38C if it was on the mark.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
10 June 2022 17:05:42


There it is June record as gone on Brian’s chart


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=198&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Could even be a tad higher when we get the high res sweep in the next hour or so on this url:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=198&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uks&charttag=Max%20temp


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
10 June 2022 17:07:37

Probably add about 3c winds s/e veering southerly a way to go but very hot indeed table of T2 will be very interesting tonight.


 



GFS hitting maximum overdrive.  You wouldn't rule out 38C if it was on the mark.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2022 17:09:22


GFS hitting maximum overdrive.  You wouldn't rule out 38C if it was on the mark.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


First ever June 100f could be on!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
10 June 2022 17:09:57

UK Met 12z has 23C 850s approaching the south coast at t+168.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_850_temperature&chartregion=uk&charttag=850hPa%20temp


I can remember in the early days of TWO we'd talk about 15C 850s as notable.


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
10 June 2022 17:14:04

Don’t forget the sun will be very high at maximum,long daylight hours if and if these charts came together 40c just can’t be ruled out I’d like to see it.


 



 


First ever June 100f could be on!


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

moomin75
10 June 2022 17:17:45


Don’t forget the sun will be very high at maximum,long daylight hours if and if these charts came together 40c just can’t be ruled out I’d like to see it.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

If (and it is an IF) they verify, then yes, very possible.


It would be incredible, plus also a little scary so early in the summer.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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