GFS 12z showing pretty average conditions down here close to cuckooland. One day above 5mm on the Op. Perhaps the cuckoo will change its tune in mid June and then...

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This is traditionally the time of year when straw clutchers point to the opening fortnight of June in 1995 as evidence that summer can turn around.
2021 of course was essentially the other way round. Fantastic opening fortnight and (in the south) mostly lacklustre from then on, especially the dreadful August

 

It does but the models often overdo things in the longer range and then it tends to moderate as you get nearer the time. However it looks poor and looking like we won't get to 25c where I am before the solstice at least perhaps.

When I was in boarding school in Boston Sps 1985-90, there always a heatwave of 25C plus  from May to July before school break up.  I never recall continuous weeks and weeks of cold and wet weather in Yorkshire and 30C was often reached.  I am sure the models are very pleased with today results to give us wet and very cold day.  

I have been lurking for a while and not commenting but the hyperbole on here hasn’t gone away has it? It’s worth looking back at the extreme language used about the past week at six day range, then looking at what actually verified. My sense is some people would rather bathe in hypothetical misery than have a decent stab at forecasting the weather.

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Gfs Op has been throwing us a warm up on last 2 runs post 15th with a few ENS following too..here's to hope

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A long way off, but a real deluge being shown on both GFS and ECM in the 8-10 day range.
Flooding rains and would be hugely impactful if it happened.
Thankfully, 8 days away is normally completely unreliable, but don't you just know that crap like that tends to verify.

This ties in with a hint on BBC weather and (less reputably) the Daily Star of TS Alex injecting a lot of moist air into the Atlantic circulation. Maybe.

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Not a  ad ECM this morning especially for the south.  Azores having a real go at building in. 

 

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WX temps continue with the theme of a steady movement of warmth N-wards on a broad front, by week 2 to cover as far as England, S Sweden, (almost) N Coast of Russia. Dry in Med & around Caspian throughout, week 2 adds N France/SE England to this, otherwise rain well distributed. Alex (see above post) could on this chart be contributing to the 'blobs' of rain in the SW approaches and/or NW Scotland in week 2.

Jet starts out like yesterday with bits and pieces across England from Thu 9th but the loop encompassing Spain doesn't develop and the jet is back across England or Scotland for a week from Wed 15th

GFS Op - Atlantic LP close to W Britain all this week but especially deep 980mb off NW Ireland Fri/Sat 10th/11th. It fills and moves E-wards but shallow LPs follow on across or near N Scotland to Sun 19th with general W-lies. HP pushes in briefly from the SW but new LP 985mb Shetland Wed 22nd curtails this.

GEFS - temps not far from norm throughout - tendency to be a little cooler around Tue 14th and a little warmer later on; the wild outliers of yesterday have been written out though the Op run is still well above norm for week 2. Some rain in most places at most times, more consistently in the N; in the S ens members showing different outcomes from not much on most days to big spikes on a few days

ECM - to some extent like GFS but slower to clear current slack LP over England; the weekend's deep LP is there but pressure somewhat higher from the S in the following week until showing a new mid- Atlantic LP Thu 16th

BBC last night developed ECM's idea from yesterday of LP near Cornwall ca Wed 8th but that's not in the main models this morning

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The first half/ two thirds of June look difficult for long term settled conditions but not a total write off especially for the south.  A case of enjoying the good days.

 

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GEFS sums it up nothing catastrophic there but nothing spectacular either.

 

 

 

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It's all a bit 'meh' right now unless your living in the north west of the UK which has been enjoying some warm sunny weather. Even these parts are going to see cloud and rain returning this week. Despite hints of high pressure I cannot see anything properly settled over the next fortnight.

Perhaps TS Alex will have the opposite effect and result in high pressure strengthening to the east of the UK? This has happened several times over recent years, later in the hurricane season, particularly in September....

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I certainly hope so. Our garden looks ridiculously green at the moment for June anyway.

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It's all a bit 'meh' right now unless your living in the north west of the UK which has been enjoying some warm sunny weather. Even these parts are going to see cloud and rain returning this week. Despite hints of high pressure I cannot see anything properly settled over the next fortnight.

Perhaps TS Alex will have the opposite effect and result in high pressure strengthening to the east of the UK? This has happened several times over recent years, later in the hurricane season, particularly in September....

 

 

A friend of my missus has been up in NW Scotland the last week and been posting pics on FB. Sunny and warm (warmest place in the UK some days, would you believe!). They've even been in the sea.

 

 

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Another poor GFS 12z with the disturbed weather now coming closer.
Looking distinctly wet next week.

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A friend of my missus has been up in NW Scotland the last week and been posting pics on FB. Sunny and warm (warmest place in the UK some days, would you believe!). They've even been in the sea.

 

 

Stornoway has had over 77hours of sunshine this month (up to midday today).

Mr Moomin, the 12z GFS op run is out to day 10 so far and is not overly wet here at a total of 1 to maybe 4mm. Admittedly we are more sheltered in the coming setup than some other locations and I would expect a few more showers than what is being modelled. I’ve seen much much worse output in the U.K. summer.

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Stornoway has had over 77hours of sunshine this month (up to midday today).

Mr Moomin, the 12z GFS op run is out to day 10 so far and is not overly wet here at a total of 1 to maybe 4mm. Admittedly we are more sheltered in the coming setup than some other locations and I would expect a few more showers than what is being modelled. I’ve seen much much worse output in the U.K. summer.

Yes it looks decent in the North.

I am talking about England and Wales.

Scotland misses the worst of this.

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Sometimes I wonder if this is the best time of the year to visit Scotland (not that its always good but wonder what it is on average).

For southern England, early/mid September seems the best time to visit, weatherwise.

Sometimes I wonder if this is the best time of the year to visit Scotland (not that its always good but wonder what it is on average).

For southern England, early/mid September seems the best time to visit, weatherwise.

Typically I find May and September are the best up here with the actual summer months often much more hit and miss.

 

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Typically I find May and September are the best up here with the actual summer months often much more hot and miss.

 

 

Very appropriate typo!

 

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The whole 12z GFS is pretty crap. Let's not dress it up any other way.
Hopefully it's way off the mark.

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