A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.

Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.

I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.

Yet the latest UKMO run is showing more in the way of Summer-like conditions by this time next week, at least for the southern portion of the UK, but indeed the latest ECM run does look Summer 1985 style (awful) with GFS somewhere in the middle.

Pretty much up in the air, but for now here at Kent it is a case of making the most of today's pleasant conditions before it all turn rubbish over the weekend.

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GFS is really going for it on Sunday! Here's the forecast for my bit of Kent, from the 0z output via XCWeather:

Suffice to say if that comes of it'll be headline news.

I suspect it won't be, as it's varied between a few mm to a couple of inches with every run, but it shows the potential is there.

It's a reminder that it's traditionally the time of the European monsoon!

 

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A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.

Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.

I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.

What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 

Yet the latest UKMO run is showing more in the way of Summer-like conditions by this time next week, at least for the southern portion of the UK, but indeed the latest ECM run does look Summer 1985 style (awful) with GFS somewhere in the middle.

Pretty much up in the air, but for now here at Kent it is a case of making the most of today's pleasant conditions before it all turn rubbish over the weekend.

Our only chance is that the ECM recently has been utter shite for the 168+ range consistently showing high pressure which never materialises.  

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What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 

It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁

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It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁

I know and then deny it until somebody finds the post. To write off summer now just stupid, in a warming trend we it doesn’t take much to get hot now. 

 

It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁

I have to stay true to myself. 😅

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What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 

It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.

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It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.

Warmest day of the year so far down here for me @25.5C just a shame the cloud has rolled up from the south to cap it all off. Also we've had more thunderstorm warnings so fat this year than all of last summer. 

All in all plenty to be optimistic about for the coming summer.

Outlook continues to look very poor for June and most parts of the country haven't even been close to 25c yet never mind 30c.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out given the Met Office and the models were extremely confident of a very hot Summer.

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Outlook continues to look very poor for June and most parts of the country haven't even been close to 25c yet never mind 30c.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out given the Met Office and the models were extremely confident of a very hot Summer.

Pretty sure the warmest UK temperature so far this year was around 27C back in May.

Looking at the ensembles for my location at least it's looking increasingly warmer, humid, and drier after the next couple of day's.  I think low to mid 20's will be widespread in the south with higher temperatures for a few.

It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.

Well, there's September to come, at least in Southern and Eastern England. 

It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.

And the warm May was acheived without much in the way of sustained summer heat.  My memory of the month was of being typical late spring, yet thankfully we did not feel the need to have the heating on at all.

Looking ahead at the models, at present I cannot help sharing the pessimism of some of you.  Over the coming weeks, when northern blocking becomes less likely,.(the return of the westerlies), we are looking for trends as to how the jet will behave in the new 'mode' because we all know how the ensuing pattern so often becomes entrenched. Looking at the last few runs, we are certainly seeing signs of this change. Sadly the resultant jet, as shown so far, looks to be booked on course for the UK. Just a few runs and early days of course.and hopefully there will be more optimism when we get closer to the longest day.

WX Summary - proper summer warmth staying fixed for the next two weeks just across the Channel and up the coast of the continent to the Baltic, with Scotland and W Norway definitely cool. W Russia back to warm after a wobble yesterday. Dry areas are the Med and the Caspian, otherwise rain distributed generally.

FAX keeps a shallow LP in the SW approaches for the first half of next week, with a random assembly of fronts and troughs over England

Jet revives Thu 9th with a series of streaks across mostly across England for the following 10 days, occasionally dipping into France e.g. Mon 13th

GFS Op - HP over Scotland and shallow LP to the S until Wed 8th when the Atlantic revives and pushes a series of troughs and closed-circulation LPs across Britain, main effect in the N/NW, notably Fri 10th 980mb W Ireland,  Wed 15th 995mb Irish Sea; HP pushes in from the SW and is centred over Ireland 1030mb Mon 20th.

GEFS - temps close to norm for the forecast period with a tendency to be cooler in the west. Scotland & N England dry for a few days then plenty of rain throughout; S England with some heavy rain in the next few days and then frequent but smaller amounts

ECM - will add as an edit when available EDIT As GFS to Fri 10th when it brings an LP directly across Britain 990mb Scottish Lowlands but as compensation shows HP developing much sooner,  by Tue 14th 1020mb England

Summer still on hold and time slipping away.

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WX Summary - proper summer warmth staying fixed for the next two weeks just across the Channel and up the coast of the continent to the Baltic, with Scotland and W Norway definitely cool. W Russia back to warm after a wobble yesterday. Dry areas are the Med and the Caspian, otherwise rain distributed generally.

FAX keeps a shallow LP in the SW approaches for the first half of next week, with a random assembly of fronts and troughs over England

Jet revives Thu 9th with a series of streaks across mostly across England for the following 10 days, occasionally dipping into France e.g. Mon 13th

GFS Op - HP over Scotland and shallow LP to the S until Wed 8th when the Atlantic revives and pushes a series of troughs and closed-circulation LPs across Britain, main effect in the N/NW, notably Fri 10th 980mb W Ireland,  Wed 15th 995mb Irish Sea; HP pushes in from the SW and is centred over Ireland 1030mb Mon 20th.

GEFS - temps close to norm for the forecast period with a tendency to be cooler in the west. Scotland & N England dry for a few days then plenty of rain throughout; S England with some heavy rain in the next few days and then frequent but smaller amounts

ECM - will add as an edit when available

Summer still on hold and time slipping away.

Maybe a bit early to say it is slipping away, but before we know it, June will be done and one third of meteorological summer will be behind us.

I get the vibe of a poor summer overall, but let's hope for some improvement in the models over the coming days.

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GFS is really going for it on Sunday! Here's the forecast for my bit of Kent, from the 0z output via XCWeather:

The difference a day makes. Overnight the GFS had another volte-face and now has this for tomorrow.

At least it's not just in winter where such wild swings occur: just the odd 4C warmer and 45mm less rain!

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Would this be the same Matt Hugo that last winter was predicting a major cold spell early on?

He also predicted a cold May….

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Maybe a bit early to say it is slipping away, but before we know it, June will be done and one third of meteorological summer will be behind us.

I get the vibe of a poor summer overall, but let's hope for some improvement in the models over the coming days.

It had ben slipping away since Spring was very poor, very cold and mostly overcast, only once full sunshine in mid-March.  I did the right thing to cancel the garden project for another year now judging from reading news about models want UK to suffer more cold summer while rest of EU fine and warm.  With over 2 weeks to go for longest day all the potential for real heat from late May to mid July will go vastly wasted.  Need many warm days prior to real heat but with the on going Iceland temperatures and any warm spells arrive will end up premium low 20's for a day or 2 before dropping back to md to high teens.

 

It had ben slipping away since Spring was very poor, very cold and mostly overcast, only once full sunshine in mid-March.  I did the right thing to cancel the garden project for another year now judging from reading news about models want UK to suffer more cold summer while rest of EU fine and warm.  With over 2 weeks to go for longest day all the potential for real heat from late May to mid July will go vastly wasted.  Need many warm days prior to real heat but with the on going Iceland temperatures and any warm spells arrive will end up premium low 20's for a day or 2 before dropping back to md to high teens.

You do realise that spring (and each month in it) was warmer than average?

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It had ben slipping away since Spring was very poor, very cold and mostly overcast, only once full sunshine in mid-March.  I did the right thing to cancel the garden project for another year now judging from reading news about models want UK to suffer more cold summer while rest of EU fine and warm.  With over 2 weeks to go for longest day all the potential for real heat from late May to mid July will go vastly wasted.  Need many warm days prior to real heat but with the on going Iceland temperatures and any warm spells arrive will end up premium low 20's for a day or 2 before dropping back to md to high teens.

Spring was neither cold or poor here. I’d suggest average, although I’ve not looked into it. It felt rather dry and was pretty mild for most of it and warm at times 

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