Pretty sure the warmest UK temperature so far this year was around 27C back in May.

Looking at the ensembles for my location at least it's looking increasingly warmer, humid, and drier after the next couple of day's.  I think low to mid 20's will be widespread in the south with higher temperatures for a few.

Well, there's September to come, at least in Southern and Eastern England. 

Looking ahead at the models, at present I cannot help sharing the pessimism of some of you.  Over the coming weeks, when northern blocking becomes less likely,.(the return of the westerlies), we are looking for trends as to how the jet will behave in the new 'mode' because we all know how the ensuing pattern so often becomes entrenched. Looking at the last few runs, we are certainly seeing signs of this change. Sadly the resultant jet, as shown so far, looks to be booked on course for the UK. Just a few runs and early days of course.and hopefully there will be more optimism when we get closer to the longest day.

WX Summary - proper summer warmth staying fixed for the next two weeks just across the Channel and up the coast of the continent to the Baltic, with Scotland and W Norway definitely cool. W Russia back to warm after a wobble yesterday. Dry areas are the Med and the Caspian, otherwise rain distributed generally.

FAX keeps a shallow LP in the SW approaches for the first half of next week, with a random assembly of fronts and troughs over England

Jet revives Thu 9th with a series of streaks across mostly across England for the following 10 days, occasionally dipping into France e.g. Mon 13th

GFS Op - HP over Scotland and shallow LP to the S until Wed 8th when the Atlantic revives and pushes a series of troughs and closed-circulation LPs across Britain, main effect in the N/NW, notably Fri 10th 980mb W Ireland,  Wed 15th 995mb Irish Sea; HP pushes in from the SW and is centred over Ireland 1030mb Mon 20th.

GEFS - temps close to norm for the forecast period with a tendency to be cooler in the west. Scotland & N England dry for a few days then plenty of rain throughout; S England with some heavy rain in the next few days and then frequent but smaller amounts

ECM - will add as an edit when available EDIT As GFS to Fri 10th when it brings an LP directly across Britain 990mb Scottish Lowlands but as compensation shows HP developing much sooner,  by Tue 14th 1020mb England

Summer still on hold and time slipping away.

Maybe a bit early to say it is slipping away, but before we know it, June will be done and one third of meteorological summer will be behind us.

I get the vibe of a poor summer overall, but let's hope for some improvement in the models over the coming days.

The difference a day makes. Overnight the GFS had another volte-face and now has this for tomorrow.

At least it's not just in winter where such wild swings occur: just the odd 4C warmer and 45mm less rain!

He also predicted a cold May….

It had ben slipping away since Spring was very poor, very cold and mostly overcast, only once full sunshine in mid-March.  I did the right thing to cancel the garden project for another year now judging from reading news about models want UK to suffer more cold summer while rest of EU fine and warm.  With over 2 weeks to go for longest day all the potential for real heat from late May to mid July will go vastly wasted.  Need many warm days prior to real heat but with the on going Iceland temperatures and any warm spells arrive will end up premium low 20's for a day or 2 before dropping back to md to high teens.

You do realise that spring (and each month in it) was warmer than average?

Spring was neither cold or poor here. I’d suggest average, although I’ve not looked into it. It felt rather dry and was pretty mild for most of it and warm at times 

And sunnier for most

No there no high temperatures along with it so no I don't believe it most by cloudy nights lift them up but not day time as this time not much frosts as last year Spring.  Spring 2020 was above average as seeing quite often of low to mid 20's days in April and May.

I thought Spring 2022 was largely quite warm, and March and April was quite dry and sunny overall. Don't know what May's rainfall was but the weather was certainly much better and drier than the abysmal one last year! 

I was thinking over the past couple of weeks that there was the possibility of a set-up along the lines of May-June 2018.

Models hinting at blocking just to the north of the UK, with an easterly feed. 

Was an amazing spell of weather - mostly dry and sunny, sometimes warm, with just the odd unsettled blip for a day or two.

This is nirvana for the UK (albeit away from the SE/S) 

The high pressure sank south through July, the dreaded westerlies returned, and August degenerated for most. 

The ideal this year - from my perspective - would be a repeat of summer 2018, but a month later. 

It wasn’t my interpretation or opinion, I was simply stating that each month was warmer than average. The only place that may not have been the case would be in this part of the world but that would depend on the parameters used and the time series you compared it with, likewise in terms of sunshine, although again less so in parts of the north. 

The current outlook is not great in the medium term but neither is it awful.

Woeful from GFS 

Models have had a nightmare for this weekend in general.  No rain here today and clear blue skies not what was forecast for days leading up to today.

Is there? I see the GFS 12z goes mega hot but it's like t+370 and then is an outlier in the ensembles.

WX temps - after a modest advance in week 1, warmer weather retreats to the line it's been holding so far, i.e. south of a line The Channel - Baltic - N Urals, albeit flirting with S England and Denmark. Med coasts mainly dry, and a small dry area in the Baltic in week  expands to cover Scotland and Scandinavia week 2; rain quite widespread between these two areas and notably heavy N Spain - S France in week 2.

Jet quite strong from W across Britain Thu 9th - Sat 11th before dipping S to loop round Iberia concurrently with new stream developing across Iceland ca Fri 17th

GFS Op - Zonal W-ly pattern for the coming week with Atlantic LP finally moving across N Scotland around Fri 10th. HP then slowly moving in from SW but well established as SW-NE ridge over W Britain Fri 17th, becoming a large area of HP Scotland - Scandinavia while LP threatens SW England from Sun 19th.

GEFS - Mean not far from norm (in the S, temp a little above then below) with good agreement from ens members to Wed 15th after which wide disparity; most members favour warmer outcomes but in the S range from 12C above (the op run) to 10C below on Sun 19th! Not quite as extreme in N but still wide range.  Some rain in irregular amounts from time to time in S, in N England/S Scotland a pattern which looks like regular daily showers. 

ECM - the zonal flow driven by a much deeper depression than GFS (970 mb off the Hebrides Fri 10th) and although that moves away as per GFS, HP does not then develop to the SW but contrariwise LP appears SW Ireland 990mb Wed 15th linked to Atlantic trough

Looking rather maritime in flavour for quite a while now where it starting to look and feel like the Summer of 2012. The only saving grace is tending to be mild and thus feel warm whenever the sun does break through. In other words, good growing weather.

Lets hope it's not like May - We had two hot spells progged by forecast models none of which verified.

Errr... I dont wish to be pedantic but the Christchurch story refers to June 6th 2012. 10 years ago...