WX temps - after a modest advance in week 1, warmer weather retreats to the line it's been holding so far, i.e. south of a line The Channel - Baltic - N Urals, albeit flirting with S England and Denmark. Med coasts mainly dry, and a small dry area in the Baltic in week expands to cover Scotland and Scandinavia week 2; rain quite widespread between these two areas and notably heavy N Spain - S France in week 2.
Jet quite strong from W across Britain Thu 9th - Sat 11th before dipping S to loop round Iberia concurrently with new stream developing across Iceland ca Fri 17th
GFS Op - Zonal W-ly pattern for the coming week with Atlantic LP finally moving across N Scotland around Fri 10th. HP then slowly moving in from SW but well established as SW-NE ridge over W Britain Fri 17th, becoming a large area of HP Scotland - Scandinavia while LP threatens SW England from Sun 19th.
GEFS - Mean not far from norm (in the S, temp a little above then below) with good agreement from ens members to Wed 15th after which wide disparity; most members favour warmer outcomes but in the S range from 12C above (the op run) to 10C below on Sun 19th! Not quite as extreme in N but still wide range. Some rain in irregular amounts from time to time in S, in N England/S Scotland a pattern which looks like regular daily showers.
ECM - the zonal flow driven by a much deeper depression than GFS (970 mb off the Hebrides Fri 10th) and although that moves away as per GFS, HP does not then develop to the SW but contrariwise LP appears SW Ireland 990mb Wed 15th linked to Atlantic trough
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl