You do realise that spring (and each month in it) was warmer than average?

And sunnier for most

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You do realise that spring (and each month in it) was warmer than average?

No there no high temperatures along with it so no I don't believe it most by cloudy nights lift them up but not day time as this time not much frosts as last year Spring.  Spring 2020 was above average as seeing quite often of low to mid 20's days in April and May.

I thought Spring 2022 was largely quite warm, and March and April was quite dry and sunny overall. Don't know what May's rainfall was but the weather was certainly much better and drier than the abysmal one last year! 

I was thinking over the past couple of weeks that there was the possibility of a set-up along the lines of May-June 2018.

Models hinting at blocking just to the north of the UK, with an easterly feed. 

Was an amazing spell of weather - mostly dry and sunny, sometimes warm, with just the odd unsettled blip for a day or two.

This is nirvana for the UK (albeit away from the SE/S) 

 

The high pressure sank south through July, the dreaded westerlies returned, and August degenerated for most. 

The ideal this year - from my perspective - would be a repeat of summer 2018, but a month later. 

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No there no high temperatures along with it so no I don't believe it most by cloudy nights lift them up but not day time as this time not much frosts as last year Spring.  Spring 2020 was above average as seeing quite often of low to mid 20's days in April and May.

It wasn’t my interpretation or opinion, I was simply stating that each month was warmer than average. The only place that may not have been the case would be in this part of the world but that would depend on the parameters used and the time series you compared it with, likewise in terms of sunshine, although again less so in parts of the north. 

The current outlook is not great in the medium term but neither is it awful.

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The difference a day makes. Overnight the GFS had another volte-face and now has this for tomorrow.

At least it's not just in winter where such wild swings occur: just the odd 4C warmer and 45mm less rain!

Woeful from GFS 

Models have had a nightmare for this weekend in general.  No rain here today and clear blue skies not what was forecast for days leading up to today.

 

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Proper chance for a first heatwave in the output this evening. Perhaps the start of a trend, considering Met office’s prediction of a Jurassic summer.
All hinges on the jet’s new style & direction…to be revealed soon.

Proper chance for a first heatwave in the output this evening. Perhaps the start of a trend, considering Met office’s prediction of a Jurassic summer.
All hinges on the jet’s new style & direction…to be revealed soon.

Is there? I see the GFS 12z goes mega hot but it's like t+370 and then is an outlier in the ensembles.

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Is there? I see the GFS 12z goes mega hot but it's like t+370 and then is an outlier in the ensembles.

That’s why I said a chance. Which incidentally happens to show up again this morning. An Atlantic HP migrates to the Baltics and wafts up some hot conditions over the UK. 

WX temps - after a modest advance in week 1, warmer weather retreats to the line it's been holding so far, i.e. south of a line The Channel - Baltic - N Urals, albeit flirting with S England and Denmark. Med coasts mainly dry, and a small dry area in the Baltic in week  expands to cover Scotland and Scandinavia week 2; rain quite widespread between these two areas and notably heavy N Spain - S France in week 2.

Jet quite strong from W across Britain Thu 9th - Sat 11th before dipping S to loop round Iberia concurrently with new stream developing across Iceland ca Fri 17th

GFS Op - Zonal W-ly pattern for the coming week with Atlantic LP finally moving across N Scotland around Fri 10th. HP then slowly moving in from SW but well established as SW-NE ridge over W Britain Fri 17th, becoming a large area of HP Scotland - Scandinavia while LP threatens SW England from Sun 19th.

GEFS - Mean not far from norm (in the S, temp a little above then below) with good agreement from ens members to Wed 15th after which wide disparity; most members favour warmer outcomes but in the S range from 12C above (the op run) to 10C below on Sun 19th! Not quite as extreme in N but still wide range.  Some rain in irregular amounts from time to time in S, in N England/S Scotland a pattern which looks like regular daily showers. 

ECM - the zonal flow driven by a much deeper depression than GFS (970 mb off the Hebrides Fri 10th) and although that moves away as per GFS, HP does not then develop to the SW but contrariwise LP appears SW Ireland 990mb Wed 15th linked to Atlantic trough

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Looking rather maritime in flavour for quite a while now where it starting to look and feel like the Summer of 2012. The only saving grace is tending to be mild and thus feel warm whenever the sun does break through. In other words, good growing weather.

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Christchurch in New Zealand just had its coldest ever day. stuff.co.nz

Proper chance for a first heatwave in the output this evening. Perhaps the start of a trend, considering Met office’s prediction of a Jurassic summer.
All hinges on the jet’s new style & direction…to be revealed soon.

Lets hope it's not like May - We had two hot spells progged by forecast models none of which verified.

 

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https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/128863774/the-big-snow-a-decade-on-from-christchurchs-coldest-day 

Errr... I dont wish to be pedantic but the Christchurch story refers to June 6th 2012. 10 years ago...

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Errr... I dont wish to be pedantic but the Christchurch story refers to June 6th 2012. 10 years ago...

Indeed.

Back to the models, the LATEST GFS has very much a summer 2012 vibe about it, if not even 2007.

Expecting some headline making weather news in the next 2 weeks.

Looking absolutely horrific.

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Indeed.

Back to the models, the LATEST GFS has very much a summer 2012 vibe about it, if not even 2007.

Expecting some headline making weather news in the next 2 weeks.

Looking absolutely horrific.

UKMO doing it's best to push the Azores high in from the sw.  A few straws to clutch. 

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Indeed.

Back to the models, the LATEST GFS has very much a summer 2012 vibe about it, if not even 2007.

Expecting some headline making weather news in the next 2 weeks.

Looking absolutely horrific.

It does but the models often overdo things in the longer range and then it tends to moderate as you get nearer the time. However it looks poor and looking like we won't get to 25c where I am before the solstice at least perhaps.

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Patience grasshoppers. Some of the all time classics started with poor weather. 

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A long way off, but a real deluge being shown on both GFS and ECM in the 8-10 day range.
Flooding rains and would be hugely impactful if it happened.
Thankfully, 8 days away is normally completely unreliable, but don't you just know that crap like that tends to verify.

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