Booked our main holiday in the UK and, if we don't get a good week*, that really is the very last chance I'm giving to the UK. The UK holiday industry is utterly and repeatedly shafted by our awful climate.

This is close to nirvana (from late June 2018)

* don't ask for much - just 4 or 5 of the 7 days dry, sunny and temps around 25c.

Current output shows low pressure to the north, it's positioning affecting an area that varies between Scotland and Scotland/North England/Midlands depending on its positioning, with the AH ridging into the south.

After that, once more hinting at blocking to the west, giving a cool flow from the N'ly quadrant, and often unsettled (esp down the east)

Not very inspiring

At this time of year we could see some Moominesque rainfall events with cool uppers and slack pressure 

Well I wouldn't believe any long range seasonal forecast whether it's Met Office or one of the computer models. However it does look as though June at least will be somewhere between average and poor.

That in turn raises the question of when of Earth that Azores High is just now, when we really need it to be delivering some decent summer weather to these parts.

GEFS looks ok. Mainly dry warmish. Certainly no write off atm. 

There is strong evidence of a major pattern change having taken place and it is looking increasingly likely the uk will be experiencing a few months of average to below average temps with above average rainfall. There has been some significant cooling in many parts of the world.I would not be surprised if 30c was not reached in the uk this year.

Interesting stuff. Well presented too. A little like the US forecasts where they explain things clearly but not in a patronising way. 

Is the remains of Alex/Agatha the first Pacific Hurricane to make it to the UK?

I would love to see some written  evidence of this.

Decent output this morning.  Even some heat appearing in about 7 days. ECM pick of the bunch.

Day 10 ECM is boiling. Temps potentially well into the 30s if that verified.

But as per usual, GFS is showing the complete opposite at the same time frame with a cool trough parked right over the top of the UK and temps probably 12 to 16c.

A change of pattern in the WX summary today; week 1 shows the zonal distribution of temps continue, with warmth a little further north, but in week 2 this appears unstable with warmth pushing ahead over England and Finland while coolth remains over Norway and W Russia. Dry over Med and up through W Europe to Baltic with rain elsewhere incl. W Scotland; week 2 the dry(-ish) area is centred on Finland with a horseshoe of heavier rain all around (incl Britain)

Jet as yesterday with a collection of streaks and loops never far from Britain; least active around Tue 14th

GFS Op showing LPs moving E-wards from Atlantic (Sat 11th 980mb Rockall, Sun 19th 1000 mb Scotland with trough well south, Sat 25th 980mb Fair Isle) with HP pushing up from the S in between these events but never centred close to Britain. An ex-hurricane off New England Fri 17th makes no progress but may boost activity.

GEFS in the S/SE warm around Sat 18th (op & control v warm) which doesn't match the synoptics well, otherwise temp near seasonal norm; a little rain a couple of days before this and more frequently after. In the N/NW cooler at first and just a hint of warmth around the 18th; rain likely at any time. Other areas on a gradient between these extremes.

ECM like GFS at first but then the LP Sun19th stands off to the W allowing HP 1020mb Belgium and warm air from the S - corresponds to GEFS

GEFS 00z update contains a few #blowtorch runs this morning. A couple approaching (or reaching stats gurus?) record breaking heat at the 850hPa level for the UK, but MAJORITY of runs are nowhere near as extreme https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/QFKyV5StaV

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 9, 2022

Yes ECM is probably unlikely but the next 7 days look pretty good , especially for the southern third of the UK. So much heat in Spain and France already so any southerly will be scorchio if we can get one.

Amazing that people are writing off the chance of 30C being reached in the UK this summer.

Really? That is borderline madness. It is almost a given in the current climate. Even poor summers hit 30C comfortably enough.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

We extremely well overdue for warmth and since no trust at all on the models is to see it yourself by checking outside to feel the warmth. Not seen over 21C yet here and recent 21C feel very warm factor after having cold temps recently.  Told my wife that 21C used to feel cool factor when we had temps often from 23C to 34C in the past with odd days of 19C or over during short unsettled spell.

I don't remember any particularly hot spells in 2021, but 30c is almost a given most years, particularly in southern England.

So far in this latest complete non-event which is known as this so-called "summer", we haven't even been able to get to 20°C here in Edinburgh, let alone 30°C.

However, I'm sure that the southerners will get their usual temperatures of over 30°C before too much longer.

These days, it doesnt take much to get to 30. Even today, it feels pretty sub tropical out there