BBC (Carol Kirkwood) this morning stating that humid weather for Thu/Fri this week is down to the remains of hurricane Alex.

WX temp charts still zonal with cool weather forecast in a band from Scotland across to N Scandinavia with successive areas of increasing warmth lying W-E down to hot for S France across to Ukraine. Dry in Biscay and W Med, rain elsewhere, heavier in the N (Scotland to Scandinavia) week 2.

Jet streaking and looping across Britain in various orientations throughout the next two weeks

GFS Op shows LPs arising on the Atlantic  and moving past Scotland with pressure relatively high pressure in the S. Deepest LPs Sat 11th 980mb Rockall  and 990mb N Sea Mon 20th; strongest HP as part of ridge from Azores Tue 14th reaching SW Ireland 1025mb

GEFS temps in S  close to norm but irregularly above and below with little agreement between ens members (control & op pessimistic later on against one or two spectacularly hot outliers), less rain than yesterday, in fact dry for several days after present rain is out of the way. Similar temp pattern in N though tending to be on the cooler side and less variation in the ensembles, rain more persistent throughout esp in NW

ECM has the same general theme as GFS but timings are different after Sat 11th; LP 990mb Shetland on Wed 15th, HP off SW Ireland Sat 18th.

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Looks like the UK is caught between an Azores high with occasional eastward moving ridges and low pressure to the north. The strength of each influence will determine our weather over the next 10 days or so. Generally south is best but even these areas are susceptible to rain or showers at times. This weekend is looking mainly dry in the south at least. With outdoor events happening for me over the next two weekends, I'm trying to ignore some of the poor GFS Ops models and looking more at the ENS which paints a slightly better picture overall.

I still can't see anything especially warm in the near future. Meanwhile Spain looks set for a heatwave in a few days time with 850Hpa temperatures probably exceeding 25C. 

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Just watched Gavin P's excellent 10-14 dayer which included the ECMWF seasonal forecast for the rest of summer.
All in all, it's pretty much a write off if a settled warm summer is what you want.
Largely average to below average temperatures and often unsettled sums it up.

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Just watched Gavin P's excellent 10-14 dayer which included the ECMWF seasonal forecast for the rest of summer.
All in all, it's pretty much a write off if a settled warm summer is what you want.
Largely average to below average temperatures and often unsettled sums it up.

It's the northern blocking which gives the game away and also means a somewhat poor summer.

 

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It's the northern blocking which gives the game away and also means a somewhat poor summer.

 

Yep, and guaranteed the northern blocking will be replaced by a monster Azores High and Zonality come December.

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Looks reasonable to me from a southern perspective. By mid-month there's every chance some very warm air will be pretty close by to the south and I wouldn't be surprised to see the first proper heat of the summer, even if it is only short-lived.
Recent summers seem to have had a trend of intense but short-lived heatwaves. Sometimes just one or two days but still yielding temperatures well into the low 30s.

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Booked our main holiday in the UK and, if we don't get a good week*, that really is the very last chance I'm giving to the UK. The UK holiday industry is utterly and repeatedly shafted by our awful climate.

 

This is close to nirvana (from late June 2018)

 

 

 

 

* don't ask for much - just 4 or 5 of the 7 days dry, sunny and temps around 25c.

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Current output shows low pressure to the north, it's positioning affecting an area that varies between Scotland and Scotland/North England/Midlands depending on its positioning, with the AH ridging into the south.

After that, once more hinting at blocking to the west, giving a cool flow from the N'ly quadrant, and often unsettled (esp down the east)

 

Not very inspiring

 

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Current output shows low pressure to the north, it's positioning affecting an area that varies between Scotland and Scotland/North England/Midlands depending on its positioning, with the AH ridging into the south.

After that, once more hinting at blocking to the west, giving a cool flow from the N'ly quadrant, and often unsettled (esp down the east)

Not very inspiring

At this time of year we could see some Moominesque rainfall events with cool uppers and slack pressure 

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/cold-outbreak-brings-temperatures-not-seen-in-decades-to-major-cities/news-story/97b4397f852576aa60d2febc49c992b7 

Just watched Gavin P's excellent 10-14 dayer which included the ECMWF seasonal forecast for the rest of summer.
All in all, it's pretty much a write off if a settled warm summer is what you want.
Largely average to below average temperatures and often unsettled sums it up.

Well I wouldn't believe any long range seasonal forecast whether it's Met Office or one of the computer models. However it does look as though June at least will be somewhere between average and poor.

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Yep, and guaranteed the northern blocking will be replaced by a monster Azores High and Zonality come December.

That in turn raises the question of when of Earth that Azores High is just now, when we really need it to be delivering some decent summer weather to these parts.

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Just now I’d hazard a guess that it (the Azores High) is somewhere around the Azores.

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Just now I’d hazard a guess that it (the Azores High) is somewhere around the Azores.

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GEFS looks ok. Mainly dry warmish. Certainly no write off atm. 

 

 

 

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Just watched Gavin P's excellent 10-14 dayer which included the ECMWF seasonal forecast for the rest of summer.
All in all, it's pretty much a write off if a settled warm summer is what you want.
Largely average to below average temperatures and often unsettled sums it up.

There is strong evidence of a major pattern change having taken place and it is looking increasingly likely the uk will be experiencing a few months of average to below average temps with above average rainfall. There has been some significant cooling in many parts of the world.I would not be surprised if 30c was not reached in the uk this year.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/cold-outbreak-brings-temperatures-not-seen-in-decades-to-major-cities/news-story/97b4397f852576aa60d2febc49c992b7

Interesting stuff. Well presented too. A little like the US forecasts where they explain things clearly but not in a patronising way. 

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Is the remains of Alex/Agatha the first Pacific Hurricane to make it to the UK?

 

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There is strong evidence of a major pattern change having taken place and it is looking increasingly likely the uk will be experiencing a few months of average to below average temps with above average rainfall. There has been some significant cooling in many parts of the world.I would not be surprised if 30c was not reached in the uk this year.

 

I would love to see some written  evidence of this.

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Decent output this morning.  Even some heat appearing in about 7 days. ECM pick of the bunch.

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