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I agree this is pretty absurd, but IIRC it was a bit of a struggle to get there last summer?
I don't remember any particularly hot spells in 2021, but 30c is almost a given most years, particularly in southern England.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
I'm not sure anyone is writing off the chance of a 30c are they? As that would be highly unusual even 50 years ago not to get a 30c.
But as you say last Summer didn't really have any notable high temperatures and so far this Summer we are struggling a bit for especially high temperatures. I don't think we can just take it as a given that every Summer will be mega hot nowadays like some people on here seem to think.
Originally Posted by: Taylor1740
Yes. Yes they are. Quite remarkable comments sometimes on here.
There is strong evidence of a major pattern change having taken place and it is looking increasingly likely the uk will be experiencing a few months of average to below average temps with above average rainfall. There has been some significant cooling in many parts of the world.I would not be surprised if 30c was not reached in the uk this year.
Originally Posted by: springsunshine
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants
Blowtorch runs are back. Early days but maybe some interesting weather on the way.
Not exactly seeing the best set-up for long-term summer conditions for the whole of the UK
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Originally Posted by: Bow Echo
Well you may mock them now but it's not beyond the realm of possibility, 2007 and 2008 only just scraped 30c. However there's only been 5 or 6 years in the past 50 years where 30c has not been reached so it's highly unlikely.
Well for what it's worth the GFS 6z is showing 30c this time next week.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=177&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Lol gotta love the GFS 6z temps for next week
Thursday 30c
Friday 33c
Saturday 32c
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
One to watch....but still a long way off.
GFS still relatively short lived, but at that range, it's all up in the air in any case.
100m ASL
Pretty localised, though.
And short-lived. By the Monday, temps are showing as plummeting back to 16-18c, with a small low tracking across the heart of England, then a big fat one anchoring off Western Scotland.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
As I posted a couple of pages back, that would fit with the recent trend of summers with short but intense heatwaves. Still enough to effortlessly reach low to mid 30s though these days.
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
It seems that the deep Atlantic low pressure system containing the remnants of TS Alex is enabling a "pattern reset" with us Kent massive getting the best deal with a better chance of warmer and even drier and brighter conditions. Better than a northern blocking pattern getting stuck for weeks on end, that's for sure.
Indeed. Sometimes the hysteria and hyperbole can be mildly entertaining, but it really grates after a while.
It's almost as if some members prefer naked attention-seeking over sober analysis of the models.
London E4
147ft
Both the operational and the control go pretty scorchio on the GFS 6Z. Plenty of time to derail but I am starting to sniff something rather summery by the end of next week, even if it is of the "two hot days and a thunderstorm" variety.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
I hate changeable summers, even if they have a handful of brief scorchio spells
I'd rather have 10 weeks of dry, sunny, totally settled weather even if the temp never got past 24/25c
Can I gently suggest trading Wigan Pier for a windward harbour in Juan Les Pins?
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
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ECM looked a lot more stable this morning so will be interested to see how the ECM 12Z pans out.
It is starting to look like a very brief hot spell, but if GFS is right, it will be very much blink and miss it.
Originally Posted by: Downpour
Can I kindly suggest that mistaking a Sintellser for a pie-eating scumbag from Wigan is deeply insulting. You can tell us apart as we St Helens folk have just the five fingers on each hand.
(and, loving the South of France - in fact, France in general - I'd merrily live in Juan les Pins; but the summer temp would exceed 25c almost all the days)
Anyway, I've experienced summers in the UK that have had 10 or so weeks of settled, dry sunny weather (OK, perhaps with the odd couple of days of rain/showers dotted about)
1976, 1995, 2018 spring to mind - with plenty of others in my 50 years of existence having probably briefer periods of great, sunny weather lasting 4+ weeks.
Now for the ECM.
40m asl
We set off for Gran Canaria on Thursday 16th
Originally Posted by: Super Cell
Any chance you could stay there until August?
P.S. Enjoy!
Current conditions (personal WS)
[quote=Saint Snow;1445803]
Whilst us Wigan folk needed all our fingers to lift the Rugby League challenge cup last month.
Anyway back to the models.....
Me, too, especially hate changeable, thundery summers (i.e, those with brief, 3 hot days and a thunderstorm type, then cool and showery).Much prefer prolonged settled, sunny weather, even if not particularly hot. Wouldn't mind brief cool, wet interludes, especially if there was prolonged heatwave.