Oops!

It is but all a long way off and one or two runs have shown heatwaves in the extended recently. Anyway before that this week doesn't look too bad now, sunny intervals with a moderate Westerly breeze, and temperatures near normal.

ECM has a decent amount of high pressure especially for the south.  

Scorchio lol!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Massively overdramatised. This evenings output generally suggests a warm and dry outlook for the large majority after Friday. Unless you live in the dreaded north west of course 😆

Output looks fairly bog standard to me. Possibly a decent weekend in the south and east. I long for the day when hyperbole on here is replaced by sober reflection. I suspect I might as well yearn for the sun to rise in the west.

That actually happens on Venus.

I've seen the sun rise in the west here on Earth, too - albeit I was about 36,000 feet in the air at the time!

As for Downpour's point, spot on, at least for down here. The June average max for Heathrow is 21.6C (91-20) and the Met Office has a mix of 21s and 22s for the whole of the 7-day forecast.

I think people forget that we're not in the Med sometimes!

GEM the best of the bunch this morning, GFS and UKMO get messy beyond 144h. 

Yep optimistic ECM run with a determined Azores high constantly trying to build in. Seems to be/hopefully a growing trend. 

WX summary temps continue to show a zonal pattern - hot S of the Alps, warm across N Europe, cool further N including most of Britain and Scandinavia (albeit with a cold pool in week 1 at the N end of the Urals). For week 1 there is a dry-ish area from the Channel up to the Baltic and properly dry in the W Med; week 2 the dry bit of the Med is further E; otherwise rain well distributed across Europe both weeks.

GFS Op - shallow LP over S Britain for the start of this week overtaken by deep LP 970mb Fri 10th off W Scotland which moves past N Scotland and introduces a W-ly flow, reinforced Fri 17th by LP 985mb Rockall but this moves S and after a brief deepening becomes a trough covering Britain from the N by Mon 20th (as far as E Anglia 1000mb). Even by Thu 23rd a new LP NW Scotland keeps Britain under the influence of the NW Atlantic.

GEFS - mean temps near norm for the forecast period though quite a lot of variation between ens members setting in early (Mon 13th) and any outliers on the warm side. Rainfall pattern in a gradient from the SE (dry ca Fri 10th, small amounts of rain at other times) to the NW (a couple of dry days at first then moderate amounts of rain continuously). No big spikes typical of thunderstorms.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP on Fri 17th stays further off allowing a general rise of pressure across all but the far NW of Britain

The Highlands have had their week of good weather; from now on the common summer pattern of mostly pleasant usable weather in S & E, pick your moment to dodge the rain in the N & W. 

GEFS is better overall than the Op run. If you run through the average charts, the Azores high stays rigidly centred over the ..... well the Azores - with a ridge towards the UK. Potential for it to get nasty though!

Ha! Indeed. 

ECM ENS has some blowtorch runs tonight.

Last May was dreadful. A properly cold month which are rare events in recent years

BBC (Carol Kirkwood) this morning stating that humid weather for Thu/Fri this week is down to the remains of hurricane Alex.

WX temp charts still zonal with cool weather forecast in a band from Scotland across to N Scandinavia with successive areas of increasing warmth lying W-E down to hot for S France across to Ukraine. Dry in Biscay and W Med, rain elsewhere, heavier in the N (Scotland to Scandinavia) week 2.

Jet streaking and looping across Britain in various orientations throughout the next two weeks

GFS Op shows LPs arising on the Atlantic  and moving past Scotland with pressure relatively high pressure in the S. Deepest LPs Sat 11th 980mb Rockall  and 990mb N Sea Mon 20th; strongest HP as part of ridge from Azores Tue 14th reaching SW Ireland 1025mb

GEFS temps in S  close to norm but irregularly above and below with little agreement between ens members (control & op pessimistic later on against one or two spectacularly hot outliers), less rain than yesterday, in fact dry for several days after present rain is out of the way. Similar temp pattern in N though tending to be on the cooler side and less variation in the ensembles, rain more persistent throughout esp in NW

ECM has the same general theme as GFS but timings are different after Sat 11th; LP 990mb Shetland on Wed 15th, HP off SW Ireland Sat 18th.

Looks like the UK is caught between an Azores high with occasional eastward moving ridges and low pressure to the north. The strength of each influence will determine our weather over the next 10 days or so. Generally south is best but even these areas are susceptible to rain or showers at times. This weekend is looking mainly dry in the south at least. With outdoor events happening for me over the next two weekends, I'm trying to ignore some of the poor GFS Ops models and looking more at the ENS which paints a slightly better picture overall.

I still can't see anything especially warm in the near future. Meanwhile Spain looks set for a heatwave in a few days time with 850Hpa temperatures probably exceeding 25C. 

It's the northern blocking which gives the game away and also means a somewhat poor summer.