The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2022 17:18:28
We may have a third day reaches over 20C then.
Brian Gaze
10 June 2022 18:21:50

Still only 36C on the zoomed in view:



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
10 June 2022 18:31:06


My location red dot just near to 32C in Birmingham while London 36C.  I just surprised why June which got the highest sun position never reached 36C  or even 37C figures.

Jiries
10 June 2022 18:33:28


Still only 36C on the zoomed in view:



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Nice charts and wish to see this really happening.  Birmingham going for 32C.

Taylor1740
10 June 2022 18:42:32
Sounded to me like the BBC were not really onboard for any extreme heat next week with Thomas Shaf saying it may get to 27c in the SE next Friday, which wouldn't be that much above average for the SE. So I would urge caution to those getting carried away at the possibility of record breaking heat.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
10 June 2022 18:44:42

Sounded to me like the BBC were not really onboard for any extreme heat next week with Thomas Shaf saying it may get to 27c in the SE next Friday, which wouldn't be that much above average for the SE. So I would urge caution to those getting carried away at the possibility of record breaking heat.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


no one is getting ‘carried away’ just discussing the charts! FYI 27 is quite a bit above average for the SE in June

Jiries
10 June 2022 18:47:17

Sounded to me like the BBC were not really onboard for any extreme heat next week with Thomas Shaf saying it may get to 27c in the SE next Friday, which wouldn't be that much above average for the SE. So I would urge caution to those getting carried away at the possibility of record breaking heat.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


They always start at 26-27C 1 week ahead but come to the day they upgrade to 32-33C, every heatwave we had before they start of 26C in London.  I think 33-34C will be the results as the ground are still wet and too green.

Polar Low
10 June 2022 19:47:31

I think a bit more to be honest key really and it’s getting over looked extremely hot in France at that time we know what s/ easterly winds do with much less moderation 


probably around 44c real time France at that time tremendous and extensive wall of heat from gfs


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-2m/192h.htm


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



 


Nice charts and wish to see this really happening.  Birmingham going for 32C.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Polar Low
10 June 2022 20:01:44

Yes Brian good point and can you remember the bbc forecasts used to change the temperature symcolour in the forecast when it reached 25c to a deeper orange colour which was regarded as a very warm day at the time.


Now here in Essex we seemed to reach 23 23c most days with no real effort at all.


 



UK Met 12z has 23C 850s approaching the south coast at t+168.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_850_temperature&chartregion=uk&charttag=850hPa%20temp


I can remember in the early days of TWO we'd talk about 15C 850s as notable.


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

idj20
10 June 2022 20:26:40

Just like GFS, ECM seem to have backed away from its idea of that "on the spot" low for the following weekend, but of course might have to give it a few runs to be certain. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
UncleAlbert
10 June 2022 20:27:07

Wow, just a slight uptick in posts today.  What's that so far?... about the same total as the previous 4 weeks?  What a difference to last weekend when there was a lot pessimism on here regarding the trends as we go into summer (including from myself). Having said that and as alluded to by idj20 there have been signs on recent runs of a return to northern blocking at around 9 to 10 days, so we will be no doubt keeping an eye on that one whilst we are musing over which regulo setting we are up to next week.

Brian Gaze
10 June 2022 21:50:21

Lots of blowtorch runs appearing. Unless the models backtrack overnight I expect there'll be growing interest in this spell of weather.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens850london.png


 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
CreweCold
11 June 2022 00:57:29
I personally wouldn’t be getting excited at a 1-2 day heat spike anyway. Pretty much the equivalent of a Nly toppler in winter.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
ballamar
11 June 2022 05:50:30

I personally wouldn’t be getting excited at a 1-2 day heat spike anyway. Pretty much the equivalent of a Nly toppler in winter.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


kind of disagree for the southern contingent there is potential for a June record, which is never the case with cold on a Nly toppler. The transition to cooler weather will feel very notable. 
the heat will come with a warning for the vulnerable as well

Ally Pally Snowman
11 June 2022 05:56:33

Plenty to get excited about IMO. 3 days of 30c weather with an outside chance of 35c and the all time June record going. Not to be sniffed at.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
11 June 2022 06:46:47


Plenty to get excited about IMO. 3 days of 30c weather with an outside chance of 35c and the all time June record going. Not to be sniffed at.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM is back to blink and miss it and could turn very nasty on Sunday if it's right (albeit possibly big storms).


Then all models agree to a rapid cool down of around 15c almost overnight.


That said, 20c is pleasant enough.


Edit. ECM actually goes downhill pretty fast and looks pretty poor after a 1 day hot snap.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2022 07:06:23

GFS 2m max temps for London  1200 Fri - 0000 Sat - 1200 Sat - 0000 Sun  1200 Sun are 31 -29 -33 - 32 -20. Temps also up to 30s Fri & Sat daytime in e.g. Yorkshire and to 25C E Scotland but all washed away from the NW by Sun morning. NW Scotland never more than about 13C. The most remarkable thing about the London figures is the overnight temps close to 30C and  a drop from midnight Sunday to midday on the same day of 12C. Is this possible?


 


 


For the longer term WX summary week 1 shows warm/hot weather pushing up into England and across to Denmark (and super-hot in France) only to retreat S-wards with unseasonably cold in Germany, S England just about hanging on to a bit of warmth. Rainfall pattern changed since yesterday; week 1 narrow band of rainfall NW Scotland to Norway then S to Greece and large dry area south of this, week 2 still dry for Britain (yesterday it was a drenching) but Scandinavia flooded and Alps pretty wet.


GFS Op - Lp moves past N Scotland to start the week with W-lies; HP arises Netherlands 1025mb Fri 17th with warm S-ly airflow but flips to a position in mid-Atlantic Sun 19th with N-lies and stays there for the week with Britain mostly under N-lies but on the edge between LP over Scandinavia and settled HP just west of Ireland so could go to and fro over this period.


GEFS - V warm in S for a day or two either side of Fri 17th but otherwise temps near or a little below norm - small amounts of rain from Sun 19th onwards. In the N, the warmth is less marked and the rain rather more persistent


ECM - follows GFS but HP develops fully perhaps a day later, on Sat, with (thundery?) LP in the Channel blocking the most extreme warmth. The N-lies appear on Sunday as above but the LP over Scandi is further N so the N-lies are weaker


 


Peculiar outputs and day-to-day changes in models offer lots of interest but low confidence.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Polar Low
11 June 2022 07:29:26

Hello Dew, where did you get night time temps for London looks to be around the 17:20c range.


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0


Even odds that June record will go on Sat imo, very summery period to come especially southern districts, 


 Very nice 168 ukmo with 20 uppers easily into Southern  England 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=1


 




GFS 2m max temps for London  1200 Fri - 0000 Sat - 1200 Sat - 0000 Sun  1200 Sun are 31 -29 -33 - 32 -20. Temps also up to 30s Fri & Sat daytime in e.g. Yorkshire and to 25C E Scotland but all washed away from the NW by Sun morning. NW Scotland never more than about 13C. The most remarkable thing about the London figures is the overnight temps close to 30C and  a drop from midnight Sunday to midday on the same day of 12C. Is this possible?


 


 


For the longer term WX summary week 1 shows warm/hot weather pushing up into England and across to Denmark (and super-hot in France) only to retreat S-wards with unseasonably cold in Germany, S England just about hanging on to a bit of warmth. Rainfall pattern changed since yesterday; week 1 narrow band of rainfall NW Scotland to Norway then S to Greece and large dry area south of this, week 2 still dry for Britain (yesterday it was a drenching) but Scandinavia flooded and Alps pretty wet.


GFS Op - Lp moves past N Scotland to start the week with W-lies; HP arises Netherlands 1025mb Fri 17th with warm S-ly airflow but flips to a position in mid-Atlantic Sun 19th with N-lies and stays there for the week with Britain mostly under N-lies but on the edge between LP over Scandinavia and settled HP just west of Ireland so could go to and fro over this period.


GEFS - V warm in S for a day or two either side of Fri 17th but otherwise temps near or a little below norm - small amounts of rain from Sun 19th onwards. In the N, the warmth is less marked and the rain rather more persistent


ECM - follows GFS but HP develops fully perhaps a day later, on Sat, with (thundery?) LP in the Channel blocking the most extreme warmth. The N-lies appear on Sunday as above but the LP over Scandi is further N so the N-lies are weaker


 


Peculiar outputs and day-to-day changes in models offer lots of interest but low confidence.


Originally Posted by: DEW 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2022 07:47:53


Hello Dew, where did you get night time temps for London looks to be around the 17:20c range.


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Max temp "Valid 00z GMT Sun 19 Jun" - the min temp is indeed 20C so dramatic overnight drop? or models just not coping with the situation?


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
11 June 2022 08:07:14

The only serious biggest problem if we get the hot weather is the clouds, I mean the nasty clouds that will ruin it like last 2 summers.  I am not worried about the temperatures but very concern about the cloud behavior as very often they rush in early in the morning and clear off before sunset making the day completely unusable.  

Gavin D
11 June 2022 08:15:22

GFS peaking at 34c in the south next Saturday, just short of the June record of 35.6c


idj20
11 June 2022 09:47:25

This must be a noteworthy thing, even Gavin D has commented in here.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
11 June 2022 09:55:39


This must be a noteworthy thing, even Gavin D has commented in here.  


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I see Birmingham get 33C on that map.  Need full sun for many days prior to that 33C temps day.

The Beast from the East
11 June 2022 10:19:06

Big downgrade on the 06z


Just as well Brian didnt call the Daily Express yet


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
moomin75
11 June 2022 10:23:57


Big downgrade on the 06z


Just as well Brian didnt call the Daily Express yet


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

???


Now I know I often get accused of hyperbole, but I don't see any down grade.


In fact temps in the south east have ticked up to 35c now for next weekend.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Remove ads from site