GFS 2m max temps for London 1200 Fri - 0000 Sat - 1200 Sat - 0000 Sun 1200 Sun are 31 -29 -33 - 32 -20. Temps also up to 30s Fri & Sat daytime in e.g. Yorkshire and to 25C E Scotland but all washed away from the NW by Sun morning. NW Scotland never more than about 13C. The most remarkable thing about the London figures is the overnight temps close to 30C and
a drop from midnight Sunday to midday on the same day of 12C. Is this possible?
For the longer term WX summary week 1 shows warm/hot weather pushing up into England and across to Denmark (and super-hot in France) only to retreat S-wards with unseasonably cold in Germany, S England just about hanging on to a bit of warmth. Rainfall pattern changed since yesterday; week 1 narrow band of rainfall NW Scotland to Norway then S to Greece and large dry area south of this, week 2 still dry for Britain (yesterday it was a drenching) but Scandinavia flooded and Alps pretty wet.
GFS Op - Lp moves past N Scotland to start the week with W-lies; HP arises Netherlands 1025mb Fri 17th with warm S-ly airflow but flips to a position in mid-Atlantic Sun 19th with N-lies and stays there for the week with Britain mostly under N-lies but on the edge between LP over Scandinavia and settled HP just west of Ireland so could go to and fro over this period.
GEFS - V warm in S for a day or two either side of Fri 17th but otherwise temps near or a little below norm - small amounts of rain from Sun 19th onwards. In the N, the warmth is less marked and the rain rather more persistent
ECM - follows GFS but HP develops fully perhaps a day later, on Sat, with (thundery?) LP in the Channel blocking the most extreme warmth. The N-lies appear on Sunday as above but the LP over Scandi is further N so the N-lies are weaker
Peculiar outputs and day-to-day changes in models offer lots of interest but low confidence.
Originally Posted by: DEW