Fighting talk!

If we had the weather many of us want we wouldn't have the landscape and flora and fauna (I hope) we also want.

Personally 3 hot days and a thunderstorm every 2 or 3 weeks is perfect for me.   I just wish we'd get some cold weather in winter once in a while!

My perfect summer would be 28c to 32c with the occasional 40c thrown in. Thunderstorms every few days to keep things green.

Fires or Jires incredible heat building in Spain at that time T2 into the 40c + bracket, uppers around 30

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/espagne/850-hpa/126h.htm

Alarming for so early in the summer. 

I don't want to change the world, just want a climate like New England. 

GEFS 12z data tables are in the tweet or viewable here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=London&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

The data tables are IMO the best way to view the GEFS data on TWO. London 12z 2m max temperatures attached. Thu/Fri/Sat next week look like the days to watch https://t.co/hXQmU7XSh2 pic.twitter.com/w1V2DWc1Jc

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 9, 2022

Very good sir, stunning autumn leaves too.

Blink and miss it affair again on the 0z GFS.

And once you've blinked, the pattern is looking very Autumnal with a stationary low pressure parked slap bang over the UK for days on end bring lots of rain and suppressed temperatures in the low to mid teens.

Ridiculously intense Northern blocking all the way. Time for a summer break in Greenland.

Yuk!

Madness from G/M probably around 34c+ S/E 25 uppers closing southern districts 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&carte=3

uncertain times with cut off Low probable a little progressive looking at spreads from gfs, Ukmo looks a little better touching 30c for a time next week, still all to play for next week and the next 8

ECM 0z is just bonkers from 216 to 240.
Uppers go from 19-22c to 4-5c in the blink of an eye.
Would surely be massive fireworks if that happened.

Models are looking so volatile, I am wondering whether the remnants of TS Alex are playing havoc.

Various BBC forecasters, not usually ones who stick their neck out, hinting at 30C for England at the end of next week.

WX overall view of temps puts a small blob of warmth over SE England in week 1 (while the general progress of summer temps N-wards continues) but in week 2 all the serious warmth has surged N into Sweden and Finland with Britain back to norm and W Russia rather cool. For S Britain it's dry-ish in week 1 with this area extending up to the Baltic and modest amounts of rain to N and E Europe; for week 2 a deluge for Britain and not much better in France and Germany as the centre of dryness moves further E.

Jet inactive near Britain around Tue 14th but otherwise streaks and loops off the Atlantic including the UK being the centre of a closed loop week beginning Mon 20th (see LP location in GFS Op)

GFS Op - LP currently moving E close to N Scotland followed by W-lies with the HP over the S  gradually re-forming into a ridge over the N Sea briefly bringing up warmth from the S Thu 16th. New LP Iceland Fri 17th moves steadily SE to 990mb Edinburgh Mon 20th and sticks over Britain with centre variously over N Ireland and Scotland to Sun 26th (end of run)

GEFS - SE England v warm for a day or two either side of Thu 16th but otherwise mean temp near norm or (later on) a little below. Rain in moderate amounts starting at about this date in most ens members. Similar pattern in N & W but only just warm rather than v warm and as ever rain more persistent.

ECM - W-lies are more persistent and the HP is restricted to a bulge over England Fri 17th without a connection to any extreme warmth from the S. Then on Mon 20th, not only LP as on GFS but a few mb lower and storm force N-lies over W Scotland/NI. I don't think it will happen, but the chart is something to behold!

And then in another blink a possible drop to around 59F.

just highlighting how easy it is to reach those temps without a slow warm up. 

Well you do realise that it's only a weather chart and one that's more than 7 days away. I for one won't be buying into these extreme and unrealistic charts at this range. We've already seen heatwaves disappear in May and we all know we get plenty of unrealistic deep freeze charts in Winter that don't happen.

There sure doesn't seem to be much consistency at the moment Kieren for more than the immediate few days ahead, and this has been the case for several days now. I think it is a case of taking it one set of runs at a time just now.

is it only a chart? Never realised. The point has gone over your head but never mind.

Always best to look at the Ens charts when you get extreme scenarios like this. In this case the Ensembles show a steady decline in pressure from next weekend with a tendency for the Azores high to retreat and allow a north westerly airflow. So probably not as bad as the Ops chart but certainly looking cooler and unsettled after about the 18th. 

Of course we have Glastonbury coming up in a couple of weeks, followed swiftly by Wimbledon fortnight. These are probably the greatest influential factors on the UK weather at this time of year.  

Spot the plume.

The brier plume is now even briefer and very fleeting before the low pressure takes over.

Trending very much the wrong way here.