BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy; Calmer from mid-December

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

 

Interesting that Brian has gone for a colder than average winter overall. IIRC there haven't been many occasions when he had predicted a winter to be colder than average (I recall he did so in 2009/10 and was proved correct) and from what I recall of recent years, he has been fairly accurate with his winter seasoanal forcasts more often than not.

Net Weather also going for a colder than average Winter ........could be an interesting one 

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A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Dec 2021

 

Looking better 

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Wednesday 8 Dec - Friday 17 Dec

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Saturday 18 Dec - Saturday 1 Jan

Getting into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC1 local news (Bristol and West area) 6:30pm

Mentioned Tuesday / Wednesday and showed pressure charts for European model, Met office, and GFS saying about wind, and how lows in different place.

Very informative by Ian Ferguson 

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No shortage of snow for Ben Nevis:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt#?date=2021-12-04 

Looks like it could be shaping up to be a good season for Scottish ski resorts and it's still early days yet!!

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No shortage of snow for Ben Nevis:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt#?date=2021-12-04

Looks like it could be shaping up to be a good season for Scottish ski resorts and it's still early days yet!!

59 mph gusts, heavy snow and “feels like” -17C. Nice!

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy at times; calmer from mid-December

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

The first of the weather warnings out for ‘Storm Barra’ for Tuesday for NI so far…

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The first of the weather warnings out for ‘Storm Barra’ for Tuesday for NI so far…

I'm not surprised that it was Met Éireann who have named this particular storm as all of the model output until now has been pointing towards the worst hit areas being over in the Republic of Ireland and since it was the UK Met Office who officially named Storm Arwen, yhis makes it honours even on that front at the moment.

In addition to that, all of the Coronation Street fans out there will no doubt be interested to know that the next named storm after that will be known as Storm Corrie and given the latest model output, even that might not be all that far away.

 

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I'm not surprised that it was Met Éireann who have named this particular storm as all of the model output until now has been pointing towards the worst hit areas being over in the Republic of Ireland and since it was the UK Met Office who officially named Storm Arwen, yhis makes it honours even on that front at the moment.

In addition to that, all of the Coronation Street fans out there will no doubt be interested to know that the next named storm after that will be known as Storm Corrie and given the latest model output, even that might not be all that far away.

 

Do you think there’s a competition to see who can name a storm first?

The whole storm naming business winds me up anyway so I don’t know why I’m asking 😉

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Why were they spelling it on BBC like an abbreviation? Storm BARRA ?

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 Do you think there’s a competition to see who can name a storm first?

The whole storm naming business winds me up anyway so I don’t know why I’m asking 😉

I don't think so with the Irish/British/Dutch - but I do wonder whether the Portuguese/Spanish/French sometimes look to name a storm that they think may later impact on them, before we do?   The Swedish/Germans don't seem to care cos they rename any storm after it's affected us anyway.

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Friday 10 Dec - Sunday 19 Dec

Remaining largely unsettled on Friday, particularly in the west, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, and snow possible across higher ground, mainly in the north. Looking drier in the east with some brighter spells. Generally light winds, and temperatures near to, or slightly below average. Showers and longer spells of rain for most through the weekend, with some hill snow likely at times, mainly in the north. Temperatures generally around average. Stronger winds at times, especially in the west, where these may reach gale force. Further into the period, blustery showers and longer spells of rain for a time before more settled conditions look likely to develop, most likely with milder temperatures, but a chance of some briefer colder interludes, bringing an occasional risk of frost.

Monday 20 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to, or above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 11 Dec - Monday 20 Dec

To begin the period, drier and clearer conditions are likely, allowing for more extensive frost and patchy fog. Cloud and strong winds will travel east across the country, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain for many. Hill snow likely in the north. Temperatures generally around average. Moving through the period, largely unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with the chance of further showers and longer spells of rain, heavy in places, with a chance of gales. Some showers are likely to turn wintry on hills at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to develop, most likely with milder temperatures, but a chance of some brief colder interludes.

Tuesday 21 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to, or above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 15 Dec - Friday 24 Dec

Wednesday is expected to be breezy and cool in the northwest with sunshine and showers. Further south, although it will be milder, it is likely to be cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Thereafter, it should become drier and more settled in the south, with this more settled weather extending to all areas by the weekend. After starting rather overcast, cloud amounts should reduce with time, with the risk of overnight frost and fog increasing. The fog could be slow to clear in the mornings, perhaps lasting all day in some places. Some rain is still possible at times in the far northwest. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for most, but milder in the northwest and perhaps turning rather cold in the south in time for Christmas.

Saturday 25 Dec - Saturday 8 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with an increasing risk of frost and fog for Christmas and New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

At least 50 people are thought to have died after tornadoes and storms hit several US states overnight

https://news.sky.com/story/us-tornadoes-at-least-50-people-likely-to-have-been-killed-in-kentucky-12492503 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Calmer from mid-December.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Calmer from mid-December.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Yet despite the settled weather - no mention of any frost!? I hope this isn't a borefest of a cloudy high with little variation in temperature by day or night!?

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Connor Harper has released a winter 2021/22 forecast:



I have never heard of him but he comes across as amateurish IMO. Although has done a much better job than I would but doesn't compare to GavsWeatherVids.

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