Don't like the sound of that!

Looks poor Tally 

 

Looks poor Tally 

Yes - the fact they talk of warmth isn't exactly a good recipe for for anyone wanting a snowy Christmas and given the fact that we are in a La Nina or will be - December or early winter is more chance of there being colder weather as La Nina has milder ends to winters - but this year we are in an easterly QBO and the SST's in NE Pacific look more favourable for us to deliver cold - but i sense the December 2019 deja vu looking at the NAO as I rightly remember back then after quite a lot of negativity in the NAO as soon as we hit 1st Day of winter i.e 1st December 2019 the NAO went wildly positive and stayed that way until spring 2020 and we had the PV of doom - just looking at the NAO now which shows bag on the first day of Xmas it goes positive and we look at the models and see no sign of any further cold weather which is backed up by the BBC monthly outlook. Still time for change and at least we haven't seen a crash in the Stratospheric temperatures like in Nov/Dec 2019 - maybe thanks to the eastERLY QBO. But this below chart is worrying. Sorry this isn't model related!

I guess I would hate all the action (Winter) to be end of November (this week/ weekend) and then all of December we get no frost/snow or wintry weather. 

Typical - Would anyone like to start us off on the winter moaning forum? 

Monday 29 Nov - Wednesday 8 Dec

Cloudy with some rain in the west, spreading eastwards on Monday, although some parts of the east possibly starting dry and frosty, with lighter winds than of late for a time. Staying cold with early and perhaps late frost in places. Becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Thursday 9 Dec - Thursday 23 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

It's taken a long time for this to happen this year, but we now finally have our first named storm of this autumn/winter season as the low pressure system which is being forecast to run down the North Sea and bring some high winds at the end of the week has now officially been named by the Met Office as Storm Arwen.

#StormArwen has been named and is forecast to bring a period of very strong winds and cold weather to the UK from Friday into Saturday

Disruption to travel and infrastructure is likely over the coming days with warnings in force ⚠️

Stay #weatheraware pic.twitter.com/lMls9PzqZF

— Met Office (@metoffice) November 25, 2021

Red warning just out for the storm. I'm almost on the boundary! Feel worried for people living to the east or northeast of here 😱

I have a fairly close friend who lives in East Lothian which is in the red warning area (here in NW Edinburgh, we are just to the west of that, but in the amber warning area), so I am a bit concerned about what it will be like there.

Furthermore, I can see across to East Lothian from my east facing living roon and bedroom and so far as I know, I think that this is the closest which we have come to being in a red warning area for anything since we were in that red warning for snow during the Beast from the East event back in February/March 2018, so that tells you just nasty this situation is.

As this is the media thread, worth noting the difference in quality of forecast between the BBC forecast and that by Alex Deakin of the Met Office on YouTube.

Absolutely no doubt left as to the dangerous potential of Arwen by Alex. A very good step by step summary of which risks were affecting where and when.

“Please don’t be tempted to take photos of the waves, it will be exceptionally dangerous!”

Unambiguous. 

Wednesday 1 Dec - Friday 10 Dec

Windy day with sunshine and showers on Wednesday, possibly heavy and wintry in the north and west. Winds remaining fresh. Potential for more potent low pressure systems to develop into the weekend, bringing temperatures changing between mild and cold, with a risk of widespread frost in the cold periods. Occasionally windy. Continually unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and calmer conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures likely milder than of late, with the potential for brief colder interludes between systems.

Saturday 11 Dec - Saturday 25 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/25/storm-arwen-met-office-warns-of-75mph-winds-and-snow

"wintery rain"

met office - face palm.

They used that during last winter.

Not sure what has happened to the Met Office with regards to their text forecasts. For instance, they went for "widely frosty" for NW England this morning but any amateur interested in the weather could tell that a frost forming was going to be a problem in this wind.

" 

This Evening and Tonight:

Storm Arwen brings strengthening winds, with severe gales along coasts and over high ground overnight. A band of rain spreads southwards through the night, falling as snow over high ground and potentially sleet for lower levels. Widely frosty. Minimum temperature -1 °C."

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming milder after Storm Arwen clears

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming milder after Storm Arwen clears

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

... then no doubt that it will ne normal service resumed with the usual warmup once we get into the actual meteorological winter.

The BBC weather man this morning, Sunday 28th Nov., commented about the showers in East Anglia which could be wintry/snowy, even on low ground.

Question: What contitutes high ground in East Anglia?

Baffling there isn't a warning for ice over low ground of NW England after this afternoon

Met office 3-month contingency planners November update

December to February

• Mild conditions are around twice as likely as normal


• A cold winter is about half as likely as normal


• Impacts from cold weather are still likely


• Chances of a wet winter are slightly higher than usual


• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds later in the period

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

Winter 2021/2022 forecast issued from TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Winter 2021/2022 forecast issued from TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Interesting that Brian has gone for a colder than average winter overall. IIRC there haven't been many occasions when he had predicted a winter to be colder than average (I recall he did so in 2009/10 and was proved correct) and from what I recall of recent years, he has been fairly accurate with his winter seasoanal forcasts more often than not.

Very interesting , BG wouldn't call that lightly , I thinks Gavs Vids will follow suit tomorrow also 

According to the Met Office, Northern Ireland has just had its warmest autumn on record as shown here.