BBC Weather forecaster this morning on the Today programme indicated a change in weather from this weekend with colder weather on its way.Any truth in this?

The current model output for this weekend and beyond would certainly support this, as far as I can see.

 The current model output for this weekend and beyond would certainly support this, as far as I can see.

A sleet symbol has appeared for my locality on the BBC automated next week. Maxes of 5'c

I see the silly season has started already

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-exact-date-25467369

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder temperatures are on the way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder temperatures are on the way.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

For your info: 

"Last updated 17:44 GMT on Friday 12 November"

Thomas Shaf on BBC saying the Sunday Northerly will only return temperatures to average, he looked very unenthusiastic about it for some reason!

I'm expecting it to at least turn a little cooler than average next week.

Possibly, but perhaps not until a few days after Sunday?

 

Possibly, but perhaps not until a few days after Sunday?

indeed if it does stick around the later part of next week could be significantly colder

 

Possibly, but perhaps not until a few days after Sunday?

The charts have been reasonably consistent in delivering a two-stage cooling process: first through Sunday as colder air moves south and then as the high retrogresses as the jet drives Arctic air south later next week.  I think the first is pretty much assured; the second, although now quite well sign-posted across ECM and GFS can still evolve differently, as a couple of recent GFS runs have shown.

At least we might get a decent air frost or three before November is out.....

 

The charts have been reasonably consistent in delivering a two-stage cooling process: first through Sunday as colder air moves south and then as the high retrogresses as the jet drives Arctic air south later next week.  I think the first is pretty much assured; the second, although now quite well sign-posted across ECM and GFS can still evolve differently, as a couple of recent GFS runs have shown.

At least we might get a decent air frost or three before November is out.....

 

Yes of course he was only talking about Sunday itself when the initial Northerly moves in which won't be especially cold. But he was certainly playing it down and giving no hints on how the rest of the week might evolve. Certainly based on the consensus from the models at the moment it should turn colder than average after Sunday at least for a time.

A teeny upgrade from the Met:

High pressure will often lie close to western or southwestern parts of the UK during this period. This will tend to bring to a colder than average north or northwesterly airflow for a time. The most unsettled conditions will likely be across northern areas. Here, showers or longer spells of rain are likely with snow likely across higher ground and possibly falling to low levels at times. Strong winds are possible across the north, especially around coasts. Further south, it is likely to remain somewhat drier with fewer showers, but there is even a slight chance of some wintry weather here. At points when winds ease any clearer and calmer conditions that prevail will lead to some cold nights with frost and fog.

Sounds about right. Looks likely to be on the cold side for the next couple of weeks from next Monday. Plenty of scope within that set up to produce temperatures ranging from 1-7C max even in the south depending on how things align at different times.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder weather soon on the way

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Sunday 28 Nov - Tuesday 7 Dec

A more settled day on Sunday with rain and strong winds clearing to the southeast and followed by drier and brighter interludes but remaining cold with patchy frost and ice as well as some hill snow. Some scattered showers could affect eastern coastal districts. Then becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Wednesday 8 Dec - Wednesday 22 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and very windy later this week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and very windy later this week

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Don't like the sound of that!