GFSP is alot better than the GFS

By 228 we already have the scandi high. This is what happens when the positioning of the siberian high is better.

This is not a perfect run though, because that canadian polar vortex has spilled into the Baffin. That will cause issues.

What we want is the positioning of the siberian high minus the annoying lobe of polar vortex from canada.

This one will also get there though. Just less ideal.

 

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Consequence of that Canadian polar vortex going into the baffin.

Siberian airflow pinched off, and just a normal scandi high type affair.

Expect some good ensembles though. Both the GFS and GFSP has most of the elements there, just not quite everything together.

A scenario that sends the candian polar vortex to the south canadian arctic and has the siberian high in the same position as the GFSP would be perfect, and send -16C uppers to our shores.

 

EDIT: The fact the GFSP probably gets to the siberian airflow via a greenland retrogression is a bit irrelevant imho. We are talking 2nd week of March by then and cannot rely on that.

 

 

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full image: https://i.ibb.co/N7hF9Rb/siberianhighsteps.png

How to get a beasterly in the first week of March in 3 easy steps. 

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GEM has the siberian high in roughly the right position but it is far too weak to do anything useful

However it does keep the canadian polar vortex lobe far away. So again it has some of the elements right.

 

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6 Q posts in a row!

Meanwhile, it looks like a renewed cold spell is elusive and Spring of sorts is the favoured option in the next 10 days 

I admire the enthusiasm you're showing Q and it's an interesting analysis but the GFS ens at least aren't backing you up

This mornings ECM ens weren't too encouraging either as the lowest member was something like -11.2c at 850 level down here although there was a cooling trend shown for the first week in March. 

Overall I'd say the signal for cold to reach us has waned even further over the last couple of days although HP is still expected to have more influence from next Thursday or so onwards down here. If we can get some sunshine with it I imagine it'll feel very pleasant too.

 

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Admire your enthusiasm Quantum, I hope you don't have a day job !! Looking fairly dry and not too cold, perfect 😁😁

I admire the enthusiasm you're showing Q and it's an interesting analysis but the GFS ens at least aren't backing you up

This mornings ECM ens weren't too encouraging either as the lowest member was something like -11.2c at 850 level down here although there was a cooling trend shown for the first week in March. 

Overall I'd say the signal for cold to reach us has waned even further over the last couple of days although HP is still expected to have more influence from next Thursday or so onwards down here. If we can get some sunshine with it I imagine it'll feel very pleasant too.

 

Yes, looks more like a feeling of Spring that Winter in the recent and current charts.  With March only 10 days away my enthusiasm for cold is waning.  My only concern is with large high pressure cells meandering around at this time of year because they can take us from spring to winter with a shift in position.

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The GEFS 35 day ensembles have been consistently showing an extended period of below average 850 temperatures in March over the past week. The latest run (from Thursday) enhances that if anything. It is quite unusual for the GEFS that far out to show an extended period either above or below average. Often it is just random scatter. 

It may not end up being especially cold but a period of below average temperatures looks increasingly likely from 5 to 20 March

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=1

Yes. It's notable how few ensemble members manage to poke above the +5 line in the 850s on that diagram, and even then only for a day or so.
As you say, there's no kind of guarantee for cold, but there is a clear signal for no early spring.

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At least it will be dry .... in the east.

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At least it will be dry .... in the east.

... which frankly is the main requirement for most of us right now !

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GFS models again  showing cold to the  east UK , lurking like built up rainfall on a gazebo roof.

The UK snow shield may suddenly cave in as we approach spring. 2013 never really got going until 

Well into March.The uppers are there.

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It looks as if the Atlantic will relent and give a dry spell even to the NW next week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 The Siberian cold air mass is still lurking but not doing a lot.

GFS - up to Sat 27th there's a controlling LP on the Atlantic, close enough to give unsettled weather in the NW but for the rest pressure is fairly high though still brisk SW winds. HP then establishes properly over the UK 1035mb English Channel Mon 1st and flirts with the idea of  a ridge to Norway through the following week - enough to raise the hopes of those who would like to see a last hurrah from the east without actually delivering it. Some of the colder GEFS options obviously build on this.

GEFS - mild (very mild in S) to Thu 25th and again around Tue 2nd, after which a spread from more mildness to considerable coldness. Dry to very dry except NI & NW Scotland around Wed 24th.

ECM - SW-lies less strong in week 1 and HP not linking to Norway by end of run Tue 2nd but could happen thereafter

 

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What?

It looks likely that London will hit 13'c or higher every day for a week from Saturday with 16'c possible

 

Sorry, I meant here in the West won’t get above 13c in last week of Feb, 

I tend to look at Cardiff ensembles nowadays, as they are nearer to me, since I moved

 

But I am not convinced London will exceed 13c every day either

 

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My money is on Q being on queue - with a quantum of Siberian cold heading our way by the 10th March. The equinoctial effects on the cold makes it less stable, and more “slippery”  and inclined to advection. Makes cold spells more likely but shorter than mid winter ones. So far it is modelled to just miss us - and I did not know this was due to influences of the PV in Canada and all that knock-on to do with Baffin...I would love to know a bit more how that works. 

There are many games of consequences in weather modelling, just like the southerly pushing north on a stalling Atlantic front - if it reaches Svalbard it means a Scandi high forms, but if it doesn’t quite reach that far north, it means a high over Denmark or even Holland and we get dry  cool weather...(in winter), so the Baffin factor is new to me.

Loved the diagram Q, but please could you put some meat on the bones?

There is something wonderful about spring snow events, when the uppers are really cold, because the snow is more sugar like, fluffy, white and more candle floss like. Strangely the rather wet and westerly 70s (after 1970-71 and before 1979 that is, the cold spells sometimes came later - one being the 25th of March: 2.5cm fell in my low lying Sussex home on 2 consecutive nights, to melt off during the day due to intense, sunny, blue sky days....real glad-to-be-alive days - with a touch of night-time magic - of intense alpine type snow-fests.

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Cold air not too far away over the next couple of weeks ..but Pressure in the wrong place as usual so settled with the odd frost looks alone on the menu.
Nice.
Time to give up the ghost and look forward to lighter mornings & evenings and watch the garden burst into life.

Some lovely if-only-it-were-July runs coming out at the moment. Potentially 2 weeks of drought and heatwave. Sad to see it somewhat wasted in late February but at least it gives us pleasant mildness.

From the last few sets of runs it seems a final beast is not off the cards but probably unlikely, or if we get one it’ll be a weak affair, enough to bring slate grey skies, chilly days and the famous annual pig manure smell from Denmark.

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Tending to follow the gfsp more not only because this will become the new gfs operational run come March but also because it is showing much more consistent northern hemisphere profile than the gfs op run which is swinging wildly from run to run. Look at the difference for ex the 0z run, t192 and the 06z northern hemisphere profile, completely different.

Really quite clustered ensembles at the moment, with very little spread and a clear pattern. It’s as apparently predictable a 10-day evolution as I can remember for a long time. That’s what you get with zonal flow and relatively high pressure.

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