Brian Gaze
07 February 2021 17:12:57

Onwards...


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
07 February 2021 17:17:52

I have been sledging all day.


I require a model summary.


Pretty Please


WI


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
07 February 2021 17:19:06

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I have been sledging all day.


I require a model summary.


Pretty Please


WI



ICON and GFS both bin the mild incursion and push the cold air back west. GFS goes for another megabeast.


GEM is the grinch and sinks the block


UKMO looks a bit dicey but might pull through from 144hrs.


 


0C line never reaches this part of the country on the GEFS mean, at least out to day 10.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
western100
07 February 2021 17:19:26

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I have been sledging all day.


I require a model summary.


Pretty Please


WI



Good conditions down there today?


 


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Whether Idle
07 February 2021 17:25:44

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


ICON and GFS both bin the mild incursion and push the cold air back west. GFS goes for another megabeast.


GEM is the grinch and sinks the block


UKMO looks a bit dicey but might pull through from 144hrs.


 


0C line never reaches this part of the country on the GEFS mean, at least out to day 10.



Thanks Buddy!  Much appreciated. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
07 February 2021 17:27:26

240hr mean GEFS chart, that's solid Scandi high support there!



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
western100
07 February 2021 17:28:40

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


240hr mean GEFS chart, that's solid Scandi high support there!




GFS keeping things further West in the Atlantic making huge differences 


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Rob K
07 February 2021 17:34:58

One for the Scottish crew



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
07 February 2021 17:37:11

upgrades so far this evening. but is that what we want?


Potentially deadly if those deep cold uppers make it across. 


People are struggling to afford to heat their homes as it is and millions are dependent on food banks thanks to 11 years of Tory oppression and lies


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2021 17:38:46

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


One for the Scottish crew




Aberdeen would surely get some "interesting" weather out of that - which makes it a highly unlikely outcome of course.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Rob K
07 February 2021 17:43:29

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


upgrades so far this evening. but is that what we want?


Potentially deadly if those deep cold uppers make it across. 


People are struggling to afford to heat their homes as it is and millions are dependent on food banks thanks to 11 years of Tory oppression and lies


 



Easterlies are seldom as severe as they look on the charts. The strong wind keeps the temperature up. To be honest it can get a lot colder here under bog standard calm HP in winter when -8 or -10 overnight are not uncommon


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
07 February 2021 17:44:02

Nice to see that GEFS has finally caught up with what ECM has been showing for the past couple of days temperature wise.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


Those are the T2Ms for London from the 12z GEFS. Looks like some places (if not London itself) will be in for the best part of a week of ice days.


EPS ensembles show similar - here's the link to the 0z ones, you can use the link to access the 12z ones around 8 PM tonight.


https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021020700,0,2021020700&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=21


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
07 February 2021 17:48:28

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Easterlies are seldom as severe as they look on the charts. The strong wind keeps the temperature up. To be honest it can get a lot colder here under bog standard calm HP in winter when -8 or -10 overnight are not uncommon



One difference, at least at my coastal location, is in the way the cold penetrates more in an easterly.


Get a standard frosty night under a high, you might get -3C (or -5C if you're really lucky). Still winds, warm house.


On the other hand, even with the heating running 24/7 at the moment the strong to near gale force NE'ly here has sapped the heat from the house, even though it's only been hovering around zero since late morning.


It's exceptionally rare here to get subzero temperatures for more than a short while with a breeze, let alone strong winds. The only times it happens are during an easterly. Things may be different inland, mind!


(Side note: the Beast in 2018 gave -14C here, cold enough that the old "chuck a mug of boiling water in the air" trick half-worked. It also gave the UK's coldest temperature that winter to Brogdale, which also recorded -14C. Those cold uppers, snow cover, clear skies and a few calm hours had an extraordinary effect).


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
07 February 2021 17:59:37

Wow, the 850mb ensemble doesn't look that different from the last set but the 2m temps are hugely colder (for Hampshire)



 


And yes Darren, point taken about the penetrating frost. Although the true cold hasn't really set in here yet.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
07 February 2021 18:24:41

ECM looking less robust at 120 hours than the GFS it has to be said.


 


GEFS out now and the mild bump next weekend has been eroded quite a bit



 


2m temps here are a big notch down on the 6Z in the medium term.



 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
07 February 2021 18:35:31
Countryfile just now “next week colder weather to fight back”

doctormog
07 February 2021 18:37:56

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Countryfile just now “next week colder weather to fight back”


Yes it was a very interesting forecast and presented the possibilities nicely.


With charts like this at one week out, I’m not surprised. 


 


SnowyHythe(Kent)
07 February 2021 18:38:58
ECM looks like GEM and UKMO at 144
Rob K
07 February 2021 18:39:50

Originally Posted by: SnowyHythe(Kent) 

ECM looks like GEM and UKMO at 144


Not to me it doesn't, looks like the high is going north and the jet heading underneath. GEM had it riding over the top.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
07 February 2021 18:43:05

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ECM looking less robust at 120 hours than the GFS it has to be said.


<snip>  



Fear not. It's looking nice and robust again by 168 hours.


Cranleigh, Surrey
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