ECM looks good to me 

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ECM looking good at 168hrs GEM was a disappointment though. GFS = Vyvyan😜

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Fear not. It's looking nice and robust again by 168 hours.

Indeed. Nicely placed at 192 hours albeit the cold pool is not nearly as beastly as the GFS!

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A trifle chillsome next week again if that ECM plays ball.
I wonder what 240 will look like

A trifle chillsome next week again if that ECM plays ball.
I wonder what 240 will look like

You know we have been spoilt by the GFS when an easterly with -12C 850s along the south coast next week looks rather tame.

At 240 it looks like retrogressing to Greenland, perhaps, and then round we go again...

 

A prime setup for some very low temperatures up north under that high I would have thought.

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Interesting models again tonight

GEM as the worst of the operationals still manages to keep it cold in the East out to day 10.

GFS manages to go better with a brief hit from a big cold pool courtesy of the developing Scandi HP and keeps surface cold in place for the whole run. The ens aren't as keen as that but still have good consensus for low level cold at least hanging on until the 15th/16th Feb.

ECM Op is cold or very cold throughout and no quick warm up in sight from T240 either. 

Depending on how much snow falls there could be some notably low temps coming up in the next week to 10 days and it's looking rather unlikely that some of the snowier places will lose their snow cover for over a week, even down here which is pretty good going!

 

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Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240

Nice extension of the cold on ECM, definitely looking at a colder than average Feb at the moment, which is quite rare

Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240

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Interesting models again tonight

GEM as the worst of the operationals still manages to keep it cold in the East out to day 10.

GFS manages to go better with a brief hit from a big cold pool courtesy of the developing Scandi HP and keeps surface cold in place for the whole run. The ens aren't as keen as that but still have good consensus for low level cold at least hanging on until the 15th/16th Feb.

ECM Op is cold or very cold throughout and no quick warm up in sight from T240 either. 

Depending on how much snow falls there could be some notably low temps coming up in the next week to 10 days and it's looking rather unlikely that some of the snowier places will lose their snow cover for over a week, even down here which is pretty good going!

 

Yes it does look good. It's a bit of a shame it doesn't look like there is much chance now of any snow cover for anywhere in the south that doesn't already have it, barring perhaps some incursions into the far SW. Having snow on the ground would make it a lot more epic!

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Not sure where all the cold uppers have gone on the ECM from 216 / 240.

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Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240

It's showing today's for me. Maybe you need to refresh your browser?

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Not sure where all the cold uppers have gone on the ECM from 216 / 240.

No, I thought that was strange too. But with an easterly coming off the snow-covered continent, it shouldn't have that much effect on temperatures near the surface.

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GFS, ECM , ICON show cold persisting throughout 

GEM is progressive but maybe too progressive? HP sinks quickly which i would think is the less likely outcome?

Pretty good consistency on the theme though

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I’m ready for spring now, after a truly miserable day across most of the SE. Snowing all day but almost nothing settling.
Now we do have about 0.25cm of settled powder and perhaps more to come, but I’d much rather have a nice frontal dump a la a fortnight ago.

Sadly, my wishes for an early spring look unlikely to be granted. A bone dry freezing cold easterly regime looks likely to continue for the foreseeable!

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Yes it does look good. It's a bit of a shame it doesn't look like there is much chance now of any snow cover for anywhere in the south that doesn't already have it, barring perhaps some incursions into the far SW. Having snow on the ground would make it a lot more epic!

Tell me about it! However I expect a flurry and would be gutted not to see a flurry at the very least.

Meanwhile - I saw this Icon 12z precipitation chart which does show the LP system move further inland Thursday evening /night into Friday:

BUT...

Then fragments horribly! 

 

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Has TWO been down? Struggled getting on and no recent posts...

18Z has the Atlantic winning this 

If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 

Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 

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Can't believe no-one has posted for nearly three hours! Maybe they are all outside building snowmen? Meanwhile, the 18z GFS Op is less keen on a quick return to cold in the medium term.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020718/gfs-0-162.png?18 

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Has TWO been down? Struggled getting on and no recent posts...

Odd isn't it