18Z has the Atlantic winning this 

If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 

Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 

I can only see it out to 168 and not sure the Atlantic will win that easily on this run?

One thing that seems to make the difference both on this run and the GEN is when there is a little runner low on the front edge of the attack that puts a dent in the isobars on the front of the HP. That seems to knock the whole house of cards down. A long way to go before it is settled.  

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Tell me about it! However I expect a flurry and would be gutted not to see a flurry at the very least.

Meanwhile - I saw this Icon 12z precipitation chart which does show the LP system move further inland Thursday evening /night into Friday:

BUT...

Then fragments horribly! 

 

I can promise you that I am watching this system very closely too! Really, it's a complete lottery. While this system looks like stalling somewhere over Ireland and SW UK, there is still a good chance that it may not even reach land and could stay to the South West. Or we may just have a couple of hours of snow at best before the milder air arrives. I have mentioned the South West Blizzard of 1978 a couple of times recently but we really could see a repeat of that event(or of the 1982 blizzard which was even better for Ireland). 

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Heavy snow right on me next weekend ,  needs to be a snowy breakdown IMBY to make this a decent spell , still along way off 

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These charts were what GFS dished out on Feb 1st for  tomorrow , so at 162h .

Widespread snow for  England and Wales , just shows how far into FI we are at that point 

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Now that any chance of meaningful snow seems to have passed where I live, let’s pause for a moment and consider the synoptics “if only it were July”. Because this week, during warmer months, would have all the makings of a classic heatwave.

Today: onset. High pressure moves over the north of the country bringing dry Easterlies with some North Sea Haar and a fresh feel in the East, but 25-27C widely in Wales and the West Country.

Midweek: heat building. A slack Eastermly airflow with increasing pressure means skies clear in the Midlands and SE and heat builds in the West. The first 30C recorded in Porthmadog and Pembrey Sands

Meanwhile highland Scotland is recording its warmest and most settled period for a couple of years, with back to back 29C in Kinlochewe and 27C in Aviemore under gin clear skies, and a cheeky 25C in Stornaway.

Later in the week: heatwave. As high pressure establishes to the East winds turn South Easterly across southern England and the temperature rockets. 3 consecutive days of 32C+ with the peaks in Northolt, Gloucester and (again) Porthmadog, and an overall maximum of 35C on Saturday.

Following week: cooler but staying dry. A shift of wind to the East brings fresher conditions off the North Sea, but just as in June 1995 and June 2018 it’s not enough to prevent several more days of 30C peaks in the Midlands and North West. By next Wednesday we have a pattern almost uncannily similar to 30th June 1995. It hits 33C in Worcestershire, before cooled air from the North East starts to ease across the country. Still no sign of meaningful rain.

 

 

 

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GFS18z seems the more likely scenario (on past form) but we will likely see some major twists before then. The point that the finest balance usually brings the greatest rewards still holds.

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I can only see it out to 168 and not sure the Atlantic will win that easily on this run?

One thing that seems to make the difference both on this run and the GEN is when there is a little runner low on the front edge of the attack that puts a dent in the isobars on the front of the HP. That seems to knock the whole house of cards down. A long way to go before it is settled.  

The Atlantic hasn't entirely won for a couple of weeks now and it will lose this battle too. The question is where how far it will  advance before it loses. Most of Scotland has been in the freezer for weeks and that's been as far as the Atlantic has gotten recently. I'm hoping that the Atlantic will meet its Waterloo over Ireland this time.

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These charts were what GFS dished out on Feb 1st for  tomorrow , so at 162h .

Widespread snow for  England and Wales , just shows how far into FI we are at that point 

Pretty accurate......

For Devon.

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18Z has the Atlantic winning this 

If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 

Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 

Bearing in mind your location, what do you expect from an Easterly?

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Ironically the ensembles have trended colder but the op and control are both right at the mild end (London short GEFS above).

 

Likewise the 2m temperature ensemble: op on the milder side but control almost out on its own

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240hr GEFS mean now down to -6C for London

 

The op run looks pretty unrepresentative.

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240hr GEFS mean now down to -6C for London

 

The op run looks pretty unrepresentative.

Yes I saw that - despite the Op and Control being a milder run the mean has trended colder for instance on the 18th it's down to -6.0c @ 850hpa looking at the 18z compared to the 12z ENS which has a mean of -2.8c on 18th.

 

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JFF:

P29 brings the -19.8c 850's into the southern parts:

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Best set yet for prolonged cold. But you can't dismiss both op and control going mild. When they both went cold a couple of weeks ago, against the rest of the set, they were right.

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GEM, GFS op and control a kick in the teeth for cold lovers

Lets hope its a blip and ECM holds firm

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GFS pendulum swings back towards cold in its outlook thus far.

 

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Is that kink in the isobars in the north sea off the coast of eastern Scotland a small disturbance on the GEM at 72hrs?

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Still cold and still a standoff at 192hrs on the GFS

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Answered my own question..

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GEM more Atlantic dominated..

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