This pertubation illustrates the correct positioning of the siberian high.

So the air here is sourced from Russia, not just scandi. This is what we are aiming for.

 

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This one may look similar but is a much less ideal scenario.

Scandi sourced rather than siberian.

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There is very good agreement for this siberian high setting up. And its positioning is favourable, i.e in the arctic ocean where the warm air is. 2nd chart shows the uncertainty, which is low in this region.

 

 

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GEFS continues to show the possibility of it turning colder at the very end and the snow row climbs to 9 on this update.

PS: GFSv16 is scheduled to go live on March 17th.  

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Yes - here we go...that SSW is showing it’s hand in the models, and 2018 demonstrated well how March can deliver something memorable, even in these warmed times. Just need the jet amplification to rinse and repeat, which is likely. Anyone for a ride on Stealth? Might be rough but it will have some thrills and spills!!

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Just had a glance at latest ensembles are there is a cooling tread beyond 7 days time (25th)

Now looking like +13c being exceeded in UK in Feb is quite unlikely (or a best just for few hours),

The possibility of another cold pool returning into Northern Europe is currently about a third, so am trying to consider this differently and have just looked at the latest Baltic Sea temperatures and ice as that gives indication of surface cold, it has become much colder than 2-3 weeks ago when it was well above average, even sea ice around Denmark now

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf 

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Jetstream strong across the Atlantic, dipping S before returning to the UK before resuming a more direct route to the UK Mon 22nd. The dip to the S repeats in that week, but there's a chaotic break up after Sat 27th with bits of jet anywhere and everywhere, mostly N of the UK, before regular service is resumed Sat 6th.

GFS shows LP in usual N Atlantic position with first SW-lies then W-lies for the UK until Sat 27th when a small LP runs SE and intensifies over France Mon 1st ushering in a large block of HP Ireland-Baltic Wed 3rd, briefly an E-ly regime but the HP slips back to the SW (end of run doesn't resemble yesterday's forecast at all!)

GEFS very mild to Thu 25th (less so in N) then and mostly continuing to decline to around seasonal norm through to Sat 6th but with wide spread of possibilities, only 2 or 3 runs suggesting significant cooling. Rather dry in E, less so in W esp NW later on (contradicts synoptics).

ECM like GFS but the HP establishes more locally over the UK rather than forming an elongated ridge

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Just had a glance at latest ensembles are there is a cooling tread beyond 7 days time (25th)

Now looking like +13c being exceeded in UK in Feb is quite unlikely (or a best just for few hours),

The possibility of another cold pool returning into Northern Europe is currently about a third, so am trying to consider this differently and have just looked at the latest Baltic Sea temperatures and ice as that gives indication of surface cold, it has become much colder than 2-3 weeks ago when it was well above average, even sea ice around Denmark now

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

What?

It looks likely that London will hit 13'c or higher every day for a week from Saturday with 16'c possible

Yes - here we go...that SSW is showing it’s hand in the models, and 2018 demonstrated well how March can deliver something memorable, even in these warmed times. Just need the jet amplification to rinse and repeat, which is likely. Anyone for a ride on Stealth? Might be rough but it will have some thrills and spills!!

Trouble is, in my books a cold snap in March is about as welcome as a fart in a crowded lift while hearing someone coughing. 

All my thoughts and energy are now being reserved for looking out for the first bit of proper warm and dry weather, good enough to do gardening while in shorts and T shirt and some of the outputs actually fills me with some hope with that to mind.

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The outlook does look on the milder side of average for the next week or more based on today's (and recent day's) output with a prevailing SWly influence. Unfortunately for much of that time it seems to be dominated by low pressure meaning mild, unsettled and often windy conditions rather than dry and sunny pleasant early spring weather.

As is usual in these situations the wettest conditions will be in more western areas with sheltered eastern parts seeing the best of any drier or brighter weather. All in all, nothing to noteworthy, too cold or exceptionally mild in the current output.

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Pattern still consistent. Siberian high with big area of cold air expected to develop.

However the HP builds slightly further west now

Makes a northerly more likely than an easterly.

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Notice how the ensembles that do churn out cold runs in FI are going in full whack. -13C on the T850s shouldn't be that common. There is some serious cold air to tap into if we do indeed tap into it.

 

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The 6Z has it very close indeed

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Both the GFS and Para have Easterlies. Just a case of not in the right position to advect the (proper) cold this way.

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GFS6z is another sinker. 

 

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Trouble is, in my books a cold snap in March is about as welcome as a fart in a crowded lift while hearing someone coughing. 

All my thoughts and energy are now being reserved for looking out for the first bit of proper warm and dry weather, good enough to do gardening while in shorts and T shirt and some of the outputs actually fills me with some hope with that to mind.

If we get can another cold snap similar to last week's debacle the Kent and EA contingent will be very welcome to bottle up and keep as far as I'm concerned.  

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GFS6z is another sinker. 

 

Not so much on the version set to replace this one!

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What certainly seems to be moving forward on the ECM at least is a nice high pressure dry out. From around 192 now from 240 a few days ago with the high over us. 

From there could move N or E - but that will depend on events upstream too. 

don't think it's going to be cold enough or soon enough to save my CET guess this month 

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Siberian high position quite good on the 12Z. You can see where the really cold air is with the dark purple colours.

 

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