Its alot better than the 06Z and 00Z runs.
The polar vortex over canada is further NW which is great.
Its still nowhere near as good as yesterday though. Notably because there is a strong trough in the way between the UK and the siberian high that we have to clear away first. Also its further North which positions it over the Eastern arctic. This has the effect of weakening the cold by cutting off airflow to eastern siberia and also making it take longer to build an anticyclone over scandi.
Upshot is, cold will be weaker and take longer to arrive.
However on this 12z I do expect to see some cold charts.
Its, and I need to keep enphasising this, so so much better than the 6z and the 0z though. They didn't have a siberian high at all.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.