Q's Siberian High is appearing a lot on the GEM ensembles

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Q's Siberian High is appearing a lot on the GEM ensembles

 

Indeed, its still there and there is still time for the pieces to come into place.

But its all been alot less impressive over the last 24 hours and that canadian cold pool has been spoiling things.

Mind you the ECM looks a bit better

 

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Indeed, its still there and there is still time for the pieces to come into place.

But its all been alot less impressive over the last 24 hours and that canadian cold pool has been spoiling things.

Mind you the ECM looks a bit better

 

Yes it looks decent enough until day 9 then hints of something a bit colder. Thankfully the mean at that point is much more SWly and anticyclonic.

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Yes it looks decent enough until day 9 then hints of something a bit colder. Thankfully the mean at that point is much more SWly and anticyclonic.

What about the SSW - 3; these events seem to impact like wild cards that change the models very near to the event, but without much effect until they do...(seems surprising to me, but I guess the models are for the Trop’ and impacts from the Strat’ would be modelled only when there is an actual effect. 

Agree, the theory seems thin now, but I am still convinced Qs hypothesis has legs for March 9th +  but we’ll see soon enough, but was there anything in the notion that SSW 3 was of a type that would not cause a flow reversal?

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What about the SSW - 3; these events seem to impact like wild cards that change the models very near to the event, but without much effect until they do...(seems surprising to me, but I guess the models are for the Trop’ and impacts from the Strat’ would be modelled only when there is an actual effect. 

Agree, the theory seems thin now, but I am still convinced Qs hypothesis has legs for March 9th +  but we’ll see soon enough, but was there anything in the notion that SSW 3 was of a type that would not cause a flow reversal?

But there was an 'actual effect' from the last SSW: the winds reversed again.  I thought the issue was simply how that manifested itself in the troposphere once it propagated down, assuming it had any measurable effect?  Do we know that the huge Arctic outbreak across much of the USA wasn't a consequence?

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Jetstream forming a series of loops on the Atlantic,  the UK is under a S-ly leg of the current loop, which lasts to Thu 25th; the next loop places the S-ly leg to the NW of the UK until Wed 3rd; then after  a brief burst of a direct W-ly, there is a new broad loop surrounding the UK finishing with a strong jet well to the S, in the Med, Tue 9th

GFS - SW-lies this week until cut off by HP developing over UK Sat 27th. That slowly slips off to Norway to allow deep Atlantic LP to approach UK 975mb NI Fri 5th. As that LP passes across the UK it introduces N-lies, strong at first but still present as a weak feature Tue 9th (There was of course no sign of tis LP at this time yesterday)

GEFS - mild (v. mild towards end of week) to Thu 25th, then a dip but recovering and still on the mild side through to Tue 9th though op and control both favour something colder at the end. Short rainfall spike in SE Fri 5th otherwise dry; more rain generally the further N & esp W you go.

ECM - like GFS to Sat 27th but the HP then stays over the UK at least to Wed 3rd with ridge to S Europe.

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But there was an 'actual effect' from the last SSW: the winds reversed again.  I thought the issue was simply how that manifested itself in the troposphere once it propagated down, assuming it had any measurable effect?  Do we know that the huge Arctic outbreak across much of the USA wasn't a consequence?

May be: There were 3 SSWs. The first reversed the flow and the second (hard on its heels in terms of timing) delivered the cold to our shores, and I thought also in turn to the USA, albeit slightly delayed. That leaves SSW 3, which I had understood was 2 weeks after the the 2nd. 2 weeks ago. Therefore, this should impact the Trop by March 9 -14. Perhaps someone could confirm the timings? 

DEW has reported the Jet modelled to sink south by the 9th, so the ingredients might need a little more alignment than that. Perhaps Q could comment more on these ingredients unfolding? There is a moving picture from the models at this range right now, which is probably to be expected.

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May be: There were 3 SSWs. The first reversed the flow and the second (hard on its heels in terms of timing) delivered the cold to our shores, and I thought also in turn to the USA, albeit slightly delayed. That leaves SSW 3, which I had understood was 2 weeks after the the 2nd. 2 weeks ago. Therefore, this should impact the Trop by March 9 -14. Perhaps someone could confirm the timings? 

DEW has reported the Jet modelled to sink south by the 9th, so the ingredients might need a little more alignment than that. Perhaps Q could comment more on these ingredients unfolding? There is a moving picture from the models at this range right now, which is probably to be expected.

I'd say the ingredients are still broadly there, but things are not aligning so well as they were a few days ago. The siberian high is weaker and often in the wrong place, while the cold pool over canada is unfortunately doing quite well at strengthening the jet when it nears the E coast of the American continent.

However even with the inferior positioning of the canadian cold pool and the siberian high there is still a good chance cold will make it to the UK in the form of a northerly or scandi easterly. Of course I hope we get some kind of upgrade (there is still plenty of time) that returns to the original solution.

As for the effects of the SSW, I'm not sure; however its quite possible some of the effects in terms of a tropospheric wind reversal haven't been felt yet. Even that notwithstanding there will be a final warming event that makes easterlies generally more likely this time of year anyway.

 

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I now know why people who don't like cold don't really visit this thread in winter 😁 a lovely week to come and spring was in the air today but there will almost inevitably be another cooler spell yet at some point.

 

I'm not making excuses for anything, you moronic little child.

I'm going to block you because your approach to wrecking threads is seriously tedious.

 

I think it's fairly obvious your feelings, however misguided and self-righteous they are. Do you not care at all about the forum and the potential implications with posting such obvious bullying in the public domain? Obviously that doesn't need an answer, you seriously need to get a grip if this riles you so much 

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I'd say the ingredients are still broadly there, but things are not aligning so well as they were a few days ago. The siberian high is weaker and often in the wrong place, while the cold pool over canada is unfortunately doing quite well at strengthening the jet when it nears the E coast of the American continent.

However even with the inferior positioning of the canadian cold pool and the siberian high there is still a good chance cold will make it to the UK in the form of a northerly or scandi easterly. Of course I hope we get some kind of upgrade (there is still plenty of time) that returns to the original solution.

As for the effects of the SSW, I'm not sure; however its quite possible some of the effects in terms of a tropospheric wind reversal haven't been felt yet. Even that notwithstanding there will be a final warming event that makes easterlies generally more likely this time of year anyway.

 

Q? Are you replying to Gandalf or is this your signature? 

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"I'm not making excuses for anything, you moronic little child.

I'm going to block you because your approach to wrecking threads is seriously tedious."

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Q? Are you replying to Gandalf or is this your signature? 

------------------------------------------------------------

"I'm not making excuses for anything, you moronic little child.

I'm going to block you because your approach to wrecking threads is seriously tedious."

Weird, I hadn’t even noticed that...shows how rather weather obsessed / focussed I am. Presume this was some past spat. It amazes me how the internet posting of forums, emails, blogs and posts, on things as benign as the weather, create such heat and tensions. It’s something to do with the fact as humans, 67% of communication is non verbal: Without the context afforded by body language, facial queues and gestures, the printed word is interpreted as 30% more hostile that it is intended, so a friendly email is read as deadpan, and a deadpan email is read as curt, and a curt email as rude and a rude email as hostile/ aggressive. All strange - but true: Luckily - I am oblivious most of the time, so did not even notice. I love reading the posts on this forum 99% of the time, and there is some really great humour at times: I guess even close knit families fall out occasionally.

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Looking at the GFS, GEM and ECM, at FI - the trend remains for settled high pressure dominance with a hint of the intense cold to our east by then, being advected towards us...for the 10th...butuntil then, we should see some decent spring weather - enough to burst the buds of the elder bush, hawthorn and bring out the blackthorn blossom. Brimstone butterflies will be out (saw one yesterday), and even the peacocks may be tempted out. Crocus and dwarf blue iris already joining the snow-drops. What a contrast from last week.😃

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Looking at the GFS, GEM and ECM, at FI - the trend remains for settled high pressure dominance with a hint of the intense cold to our east by then, being advected towards us...for the 10th...but until then, we should see some decent spring weather - enough to burst the buds of the elder bush, hawthorn and bring out the blackthorn blossom. Brimstone butterflies will be out (saw one yesterday), and even the peacocks may be tempted out. Crocus and dwarf blue iris already joining the snow-drops. What a contrast from last week.😃

Not much of a hint - more of a steady withdrawal on this chart http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 but certainy dry away from NI & NW Scotland (and our irises were out in late January!) 

Quick round-up of the main charts

GFS - HP over Europe with SW-lies to Fri 26th, then HP coming up from S to settle over UK - it moves around a bit but eventually gives way to a weak trough Mon 8th with weak N-lies appearing

GEFS - slight dip in temps Fri 26th but otherwise good agreement on mild through to Fri 5th after which much scatter, mean close to norm but not meaning very much. Op is the one to watch if you want cold at end of period. Very little rain, chance of a bit more in S around Tue 9th, a day or two earlier in Scotland which also has its own wet day this week Wed 24th.

ECM - much as GFS

 

 

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Looking at the GFS, GEM and ECM, at FI - the trend remains for settled high pressure dominance with a hint of the intense cold to our east by then, being advected towards us...for the 10th...butuntil then, we should see some decent spring weather - enough to burst the buds of the elder bush, hawthorn and bring out the blackthorn blossom. Brimstone butterflies will be out (saw one yesterday), and even the peacocks may be tempted out. Crocus and dwarf blue iris already joining the snow-drops. What a contrast from last week.😃

Game on for Quantum's Siberian High again this morning. If it does make it, it could be quite a shock to nature after Spring has sprung now

 

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Looking at the GFS, GEM and ECM, at FI - the trend remains for settled high pressure dominance with a hint of the intense cold to our east by then, being advected towards us...for the 10th...butuntil then, we should see some decent spring weather - enough to burst the buds of the elder bush, hawthorn and bring out the blackthorn blossom. Brimstone butterflies will be out (saw one yesterday), and even the peacocks may be tempted out. Crocus and dwarf blue iris already joining the snow-drops. What a contrast from last week.😃

Bumble bees are active here and the daffs are in bloom.  

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The siberian high is still there, however we are starting to run out of time for favourable corrections to the position to get that cold air in W russia advected towards us.

The problem is that Canadian cold pool, spinning up LPs in the atlantic and southern arctic. Still, over the last 24 hours there have been slow incrimental upgrades which is a good sign.

 

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When I first started posting about the S high, the action was in the 240-270h range. Now its in the 192-222 type range. Still FI but getting to the point where very large synoptic corrections become less likely.

The good news is that we don't need a very large correction and if the upgrades continue we might get there.

But time is starting to run out.

For me personally a regular run of the mill northerly or scandi easterly won't cut it in early March. I want that siberian airsource.

 

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This isn't ideal.

See the black area in W siberia, that's where the really cold air is.

Siberian high has diminished too early so keeps the real cold locked up. Scandi high is forming and does have cold air on its southern side, but ideally we want the scandi high to be an extension of the S high at this stage.

The difference will be -25C uppers getting into Europe vs -35C uppers.

For the UK downstream that's -10C uppers vs -15C uppers.

Its an upgrade on the 0Z though.

 

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You can see the cold pool from siberia being stretched. It will eventually split, and we will get the weaker secondary cold pool. Again a shame, but we could still upgrade.

Regarding the canadian cold pool, its further west on the 6Z which is good but I don't like the fact its sitting over the Baffin. It will spin LPs up which will run across the southern atlantic arctic and weaken any connection between the subtropical high and siberian high.

It was alot worse on the 0Z though.

We are making slow improvements.

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