GFSP is interesting. Would you call this a Sciberian high?

Again its not ideal but the more eastward position at this late stage means uppers will be colder.

-32C uppers manage to get into Europe, so 5C+ degrees colder just by a slight change in position.

This is kind of ironic, we are getting close to a spoiler greenland high

We don't want a GH developing at this stage and introducing relatively mild northerlies!

OK neither GFS gets there.

GFS has it collapsing and sending the cold to E europe

GFSP has a spoiler greenland high that gives us a milder northerly.

But in terms of the bigger picture, both are upgrades on the 0Z set. Both have weaker Canadian cold pools and further west, both have stronger and better positioned siberian highs.

So we could still get there provided the upgrades continue.

And we are all aware stunning charts can suddenly pop up in the 180-192 hour range.

Look from the ensembles:

Some key features:

Red over the UK/S scandi: High heights asociated with WAA and a deep developing anticyclone

Blue over most of Russia: Shallow anticyclone and cold core upper trough. Asociated with very cold air

Red over arctic: Extension of anticyclone into the siberian arctic. Wamer air here, deeper anticyclone.

Blue over the Hudson: Spoiler cold pool/ cold core deep LP. We want this to stay over land (or sea ice) and be as far away as possible.

One thing the GFS won't take into account is the effect of the cold air on sea ice in the baffin.

Thicker, more extensive sea ice developing over the Baffin will lessen the impact of the spoiler cold pool and cyclogenesis will be weaker.

Weaker cyclogenesis over E canada means less trough activity over the southern arctic which in turn means better connection between heights over the UK and the siberian high.

Sea ice is currently well below average over the baffin and E canada in particular.

So there is the most potential for sea ice growth here. The more sea ice growth the better for us.

GFS Control. We can do alot better. Again Cold air from siberia pinched off before getting into Europe. A cold pool of -24C is perhaps not to be sniffed at, but we can be 10C colder if the Siberian high aligns right.

It looks like Hamburg is going to smash its all-time February high of 17.2C today. It's already up to 17C and weather.com is predicting a high of 19C. Their forecast highs for the next 3 days:

23rd: 17C
24th: 18C
25th: 16C

Crazy.

It looks like Hamburg is going to smash its all-time February high of 17.2C today. It's already up to 17C and weather.com is predicting a high of 19C. Their forecast highs for the next 3 days:

23rd: 17C
24th: 18C
25th: 16C

Crazy.

Especially given the recent cold.

I see Q just made 10 successive contributions. Very impressive

Hamburg-Neuwiedenthal reporting 20.2C at 1200 UTC!

Hamburg-Neuwiedenthal reporting 20.2C at 1200 UTC!

Wow! The ease in which warm records are broken these days really is quite something. 

06z Op run is odd one out. But will the 12z Op run join the trend the Para and Control are going or will the Para and control back track to follow the Op run? hmm..

06z Para shows cold blocked weather from +282 with HP between Scotland and Iceland:

06z Control: - builds A huge Scandi high

Yes, the beast is getting closer on the GEFS. Could be a really interesting month. 

Yes, the beast is getting closer on the GEFS. Could be a really interesting month. 

Hope it is though.

I dread the thought of a run of the mill greenland high or scandi high.

It would be miserably cold, but probably not much snow

Looking at the charts full of Eastern Promise,, starting to fear a April 1989

Scenario.....it really will be like a team throwing all at the death at long last in injury time when they should have played like that during full time, only for the whistle to blow and itll be too late..

Canadian cold pool ruining things on the ICON12Z

Siberian high forced back by that trough.

12Z.

Can that really cold air get into Europe?

Does seem like a slight upgrade on the 6Z

Less influence from the canadian cold pool

and slightly better positioning of the siberian high.

Set-ups that deliver rain to Aberdeen #258