Jetstream strong across the Atlantic, dipping S before returning to the UK before resuming a more direct route to the UK Mon 22nd. The dip to the S repeats in that week, but there's a chaotic break up after Sat 27th with bits of jet anywhere and everywhere, mostly N of the UK, before regular service is resumed Sat 6th.
GFS shows LP in usual N Atlantic position with first SW-lies then W-lies for the UK until Sat 27th when a small LP runs SE and intensifies over France Mon 1st ushering in a large block of HP Ireland-Baltic Wed 3rd, briefly an E-ly regime but the HP slips back to the SW (end of run doesn't resemble yesterday's forecast at all!)
GEFS very mild to Thu 25th (less so in N) then and mostly continuing to decline to around seasonal norm through to Sat 6th but with wide spread of possibilities, only 2 or 3 runs suggesting significant cooling. Rather dry in E, less so in W esp NW later on (contradicts synoptics).
ECM like GFS but the HP establishes more locally over the UK rather than forming an elongated ridge
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl