HARMONIE 18z run going for 36C on the north Norfolk coast on Saturday

35C near Gravesend and also in Essex

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2019062718/harmonie-41-45-0.png?27-23

UK date record for 29 June is 35.6C (which is also the equal highest June temperature on record)

I do think Saturday has the potential to be a bit like 1st July 2015. One day wonder but intense. We’ll know by about 9.30am if the temps are rocketing.

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I know that the most recent model output has been pointing towards more of a thundery breakdown already occurring here during Saturday.

After watching Gavin P.'s latest videos today though, it was was interesting to see that parts of NE Scotland (which is normally around the Moray Firth area) could see temperatures approaching or possibly even reaching 30°C on Saturday before that happens.

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HARMONIE 18z run going for 36C on the north Norfolk coast on Saturday

35C near Gravesend and also in Essex

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2019062718/harmonie-41-45-0.png?27-23

UK date record for 29 June is 35.6C (which is also the equal highest June temperature on record)

The 0z run shows much the same, complete with a great big "35" over Leysdown. The Met Office raw output suggests 28 (GFS 27), but I suspect it'll be into the 30s simply because the wind will have swung south of east, losing the North Sea influence and the protective boundary modification.

It'll be an interesting day to cap a fascinating run up to the weekend.

EDIT: This morning's sounding down in Sussex shows the incredible situation well.

575dam thickness (the record is 576, so we're close), but just look at that boundary modification!

For those who don't know how to read these charts, the rightmost line is the temperature (at various pressure levels as shown on the left) and the leftmost line is the dewpoint.

The chart shows relatively cool air at the surface (our boundary layer, which so far has shielded us from the heat), with the "bulge" further up representing the exceptionally hot air that's covering western Europe. It's above 20C from 900hPa up to 750hPa, but note also the way the dewpoint goes way down to below -20C. That's representative of a very stable boundary layer, which is why Friday is likely to be another relatively cool day (at least down here - if you can "mix out" that layer, as will happen tomorrow, then it'll be hot or very hot instead.)

I'll post tomorrow's sounding if I remember, for comparison, but you can find them here. Note they're only available at midnight, rather than midday as well as they used to be (budget cuts!)

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2823&STNM=03882

Change the 2800 and 2823 to different dates to see different charts (i.e. 2700 and 2723 for yesterday's).

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FWIW, just spotted that the high-res GFS has a pocket of 25C 850s in the SW.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8466/3-7_apr7.GIF

If that's accurate (big IF), that'd be a new UK record AFAIK. It's also on the 0z initialisation, but that's via WZ and will change later this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_0_2.png

 

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The 0z run shows much the same, complete with a great big "35" over Leysdown. The Met Office raw output suggests 28 (GFS 27), but I suspect it'll be into the 30s simply because the wind will have swung south of east, losing the North Sea influence and the protective boundary modification.

It'll be an interesting day to cap a fascinating run up to the weekend.

EDIT: This morning's sounding down in Sussex shows the incredible situation well.

575dam thickness (the record is 576, so we're close), but just look at that boundary modification!

For those who don't know how to read these charts, the rightmost line is the temperature (at various pressure levels as shown on the left) and the leftmost line is the dewpoint.

The chart shows relatively cool air at the surface (our boundary layer, which so far has shielded us from the heat), with the "bulge" further up representing the exceptionally hot air that's covering western Europe. It's above 20C from 900hPa up to 750hPa, but note also the way the dewpoint goes way down to below -20C. That's representative of a very stable boundary layer, which is why Friday is likely to be another relatively cool day (at least down here - if you can "mix out" that layer, as will happen tomorrow, then it'll be hot or very hot instead.)

I'll post tomorrow's sounding if I remember, for comparison, but you can find them here. Note they're only available at midnight, rather than midday as well as they used to be (budget cuts!)

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2823&STNM=03882

Change the 2800 and 2823 to different dates to see different charts (i.e. 2700 and 2723 for yesterday's).

It never happened before of having total idiot cold boundary interfere this supposed to be record heatwave here.  I  mean we had some failed heatwaves attemps due to clouds and rain against hgh uppers but not this time. Isle of Grain highest temps recorded is only 30C I am not sure why it never went to low 30's in the coasts while inland go to high 30's around Kent.  It already cold here and my phone app for Lower Stoke forecast 18C only today with gale force winds then 29C tomorrow.  Also I doubt it too as the ground and air around us already cold and didn't have several sunny days to allow high temps.   

Bingo. The UK record thickness has gone - The Camborne ascent this morning has 578dam!

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2823&STNM=03808

(Worth noting that's even warmer than the models had been predicting.)

The 850 temperature was 24.8C, which is likely also to be a record.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2800&STNM=03808

 

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Meanwhile in France the June temp record has been exceeded - and counting -

https://twitter.com/VigiMeteoFrance/status/1144276562205917185

42.0 C at Grospierres in the Ardeche region, and iother high values in the south shown

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The BBC’s forecast map on just now (BBC1) showed a high of 34°C in the London area on Saturday.

FWIW the 500-1000hPa thicknesses here are expected to reach 572dam (with 19°C t850hPa values) later in the day.

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A fascinating couple of days of weather to enjoy. This will go down in the annals (and editions of Weather magazine) for its weirdness.

It’s worth watching out this afternoon for some sudden late rises in temperature. Then tomorrow morning a rocketing of dewpoint. Quite an early night min tonight and an early diurnal max tomorrow.

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I am not sure what the record temperature is for the Maine-et-Loire region of France but the extreme temperatures shown for tomorrow of 42C by the AROME model must surely be close to a record. Highest figure around Angers. Most other models are not quite so hot although ARPEGE is close with the heat slightly further east and ICON does also reach 42C

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2019062800/aromehd-41-39-1.png?28-05

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2019062800/arpege-41-39-1.png?28-05

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019062800/iconeu-41-39-1.png?28-05

Even today 40C is expected in that region.

Here is an interesting probability map

% chance of temperature >35C tomorrow afternoon

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/pearp/runs/2019062718/pearp-9-45-1-35.png?28-02

% chance of temperature >40C tomorrow afternoon

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/pearp/runs/2019062718/pearp-7-45-1-35.png?28-02

 wfu going for 37C around London can we add 3 on 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature-2m-corr/20190629-1500z.html

 

Hi Tim - please keep the updates rolling - should be an interesting day for weather records.

Meteociel is now showing 33C at Neris-les-Bains.

 

So far today we are on a level pegging with yesterday in France. Note that uppers peak over the Rhone valley in the afternoon per the models though. 33C in a couple of spots in the South at 9.30am.

 

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Oh and at 10am there are 4 sites reporting 34C, all in Provence / Languedoc.
Chilly with low cloud across a swathe of Aquitaine this morning. It's 19C in Bordeaux with onshore wind.

Oh and I notice it's already 24C in NW Wales.

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Tops in France now 37C (Marseille and Istres) with a few 34-35C spots too. Not rocketing, because today is a day of stagnating hot air rather than strong advection - which will be more the case for us on Saturday - but making steady progress upwards. About an hour and a half until "midday" for central/Eastern France given its timezone, and 2 hours for the West.

Same time today and same temperatures so far. Maybe a touch ahead of Thursday. A few 37s and some 36s.

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I've spent all week telling people Friday will bring record heat but only above their heads, to many bemused reactions! 

 

So... yesterday mostly maxed 2-3*C above the model numbers rather than the 4-6*C forecast in the Met Office video foreast.

What on Earth is going on here?

Something I noticed in that forecast was that the wind flow shown was more south than east, as if they're using the upper winds instead of surface. Surely it can't be that their using the wrong winds to decide on the maxes - that'd be ridiculous!

Embarrassingly, the BBC forecasts, using MeteoGroup data, have fared much better these past few days.

 

So what of today? We have a more easterly flow with a shorter sea fetch across SSTs that have warmed considerably in recent days:

...and locations that have seen since dawn or not long after are responding, with 10 am readings 1-2*C above those of yesterday.

So let's see if anywhere can get to at least within a degree of the magic 30 today.

 

p.s. We desperately need an auto-save of post content in this forum; I swear, there are few things more infuriating than losing 10 minutes of post material because of accidental tab closure while retrieving a website link!

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The Earth.nullschool.net page gives a really good impression of what is keeping our temperatures down - if you select "surface winds" you can see how they are sweeping in from the east and cuttting off any heat at the surface. Click forward to tomorrow and they lighten and turn southerly:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/06/28/1500Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-3.36,50.45,3000/loc=5.332,43.773 

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Met talking about 35C tomorrow I have been told. That's inline with what I've told people in the media who have contacted me.

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I've spent all week telling people Friday will bring record heat but only above their heads, to many bemused reactions! 

 

So... yesterday mostly maxed 2-3*C above the model numbers rather than the 4-6*C forecast in the Met Office video foreast.

What on Earth is going on here?

Something I noticed in that forecast was that the wind flow shown was more south than east, as if they're using the upper winds instead of surface. Surely it can't be that their using the wrong winds to decide on the maxes - that'd be ridiculous!

Embarrassingly, the BBC forecasts, using MeteoGroup data, have fared much better these past few days.

 

So what of today? We have a more easterly flow with a shorter sea fetch across SSTs that have warmed considerably in recent days:

...and locations that have seen since dawn or not long after are responding, with 10 am readings 1-2*C above those of yesterday.

So let's see if anywhere can get to at least within a degree of the magic 30 today.

 

p.s. We desperately need an auto-save of post content in this forum; I swear, there are few things more infuriating than losing 10 minutes of post material because of accidental tab closure while retrieving a website link!

Interesting analysis there James.

 

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St Jean de Védas near Montpellier is recording 39.4C at noon local time with a heat index of 47C - remarked as "DANGER" on the meteociel page!

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