I don't think it's a case of the MetO forecasters being inadequately educated; there has been a lot of confusion with their forecasts across different platforms with some very poor video graphics on their twitter feed. For example, last weekend they had a video graphic showing temps of 30-34C (almost 10C above the raw model values) for Wed-Fri this week and even on Monday they were showing 29C for London on both Tue and Wed.
As I said at the time, these forecasts were both wrong and unprofessional, but I have no idea who produces them and why they differ from their text forecasts on their website.
Anyway, max temps should be around 3C higher than raw model values for the next 3 days in the south, but again nothing like those silly video graphics.
Very good chance of 32-34C north of London on Sat.
Could well be that the video accidentally used outdated model data from prior to the models picking up on such a strong high to the north (originally it looked to be some 5 mb weaker; a significant difference in a situation such as we now have). The London temps were especially puzzling even so; how could London climb into the 30s under what still looked to be a keen flow off the North Sea where temps are around 14*C tops? Vertical mixing can't possibly be that strong, even with low atmospheric moisture.
They're still expecting more than the typical model errors for today though; forecasts are 4-6*C above the model data for some places today.
Compared to model numbers in brackets, their shorter-range video update of yesterday afternoon forecast 26*C (23*C) in London today, 27*C (22*C) Southampton, 28*C (22*C) Bristol, 26*C (22*C) Birmingham, 25*C (24*C) Manchester. By contrast, only 16*C right by the eastern coasts (as makes sense).
For tomorrow, they're not as far above the models on average, forecasting 25*C (25*C) London, 28*C (24*C) Southampton, 30*C (24*C) Bristol, 27*C (23*C) Birmingham, 26*C (26*C) Manchester, again with 16*C right by eastern coasts.
The largest differences are where the strongest surface wind is expected each day (winds are a lot lighter northwest of Birmingham than yesterday, and will be lighter for all but the far south and the West Country tomorrow).
This is where my idea of vertical mixing, allowing for staggered warming down-flow, is rooted, as it's the only possible thermodynamic explanation I'm aware of. If anyone knows any alternatives, please share - I'm only human so significant gaps in knowledge are to be expected .
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