With unstable air only 150 miles SW of my location I wouldn’t be surprised to see lightening over the sea in the next 24-36 hours. With all that heat over France being pulled towards the SW by that low in Biscay the possibility of a few storms drifting this way is probable. That said the Meto don’t think this is likely.

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Already 30c + in many French locations crazy.  They should beat their June record today. 

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June national records beaten in Germany, Poland and Czech Republic yesterday. They’ll be cooler today as the high pressure pushes the hottest weather South and West.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48780685 

Wasn’t that hot overnight in France actually. Some places got down to 20ish, but seem to be heating up rapidly.

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33C at Salon de Provence, 9.30am.

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33C at Salon de Provence, 9.30am.

Hi Tim - please keep the updates rolling - should be an interesting day for weather records.

Meteociel is now showing 33C at Neris-les-Bains.

 

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I don't think it's a case of the MetO forecasters being inadequately educated; there has been a lot of confusion with their forecasts across different platforms with some very poor video graphics on their twitter feed. For example, last weekend they had a video graphic showing temps of 30-34C (almost 10C above the raw model values) for Wed-Fri this week and even on Monday they were showing 29C for London on both Tue and Wed.

As I said at the time, these forecasts were both wrong and unprofessional, but I have no idea who produces them and why they differ from their text forecasts on their website.

Anyway, max temps should be around 3C higher than raw model values for the next 3 days in the south, but again nothing like those silly video graphics.

Very good chance of 32-34C north of London on Sat.

Could well be that the video accidentally used outdated model data from prior to the models picking up on such a strong high to the north (originally it looked to be some 5 mb weaker; a significant difference in a situation such as we now have). The London temps were especially puzzling even so; how could London climb into the 30s under what still looked to be a keen flow off the North Sea where temps are around 14*C tops? Vertical mixing can't possibly be that strong, even with low atmospheric moisture.

They're still expecting more than the typical model errors for today though; forecasts are 4-6*C above the model data for some places today.

Compared to model numbers in brackets, their shorter-range video update of yesterday afternoon forecast 26*C (23*C) in London today, 27*C (22*C) Southampton, 28*C (22*C) Bristol, 26*C (22*C) Birmingham, 25*C (24*C) Manchester. By contrast, only 16*C right by the eastern coasts (as makes sense).

For tomorrow, they're not as far above the models on average, forecasting 25*C (25*C) London, 28*C (24*C) Southampton, 30*C (24*C) Bristol, 27*C (23*C) Birmingham, 26*C (26*C) Manchester, again with 16*C right by eastern coasts.

 

The largest differences are where the strongest surface wind is expected each day (winds are a lot lighter northwest of Birmingham than yesterday, and will be lighter for all but the far south and the West Country tomorrow).

This is where my idea of vertical mixing, allowing for staggered warming down-flow, is rooted, as it's the only possible thermodynamic explanation I'm aware of. If anyone knows any alternatives, please share - I'm only human so significant gaps in knowledge are to be expected .

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Could well be that the video accidentally used outdated model data from prior to the models picking up on such a strong high to the north (originally it looked to be some 5 mb weaker; a significant difference in a situation such as we now have). The London temps were especially puzzling even so; how could London climb into the 30s under what still looked to be a keen flow off the North Sea where temps are around 14*C tops? Vertical mixing can't possibly be that strong, even with low atmospheric moisture.

 

I don't think that's the case unfortunately. On Sat (when they produced that video) there have already been 3 EC cycles/runs showing the pattern we have now and their own model was showing it too. To be fair to them, the EC ens was warmer at the time (it had a cluster with much less N.Sea influence), but again there was no scientific basis for a such a bold forecast. Even on Sunday they were showings 30s when all models were 10C cooler with a very reasonable and consistent evolution etc.

Anyway, I don't like criticising mets but I thought this was a big and unnecessary bust.

 

Tops in France now 37C (Marseille and Istres) with a few 34-35C spots too. Not rocketing, because today is a day of stagnating hot air rather than strong advection - which will be more the case for us on Saturday - but making steady progress upwards. About an hour and a half until "midday" for central/Eastern France given its timezone, and 2 hours for the West.

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Now 38C at 2 sites in Provence. Expect the centre of heat to spread into Aquitaine and Charente later today.
And a sizzling 24C in Cornwall now too.

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Shouldn't the title be changed to "European" heatwave thread

We will only get 1 day above 30 and then looks like that could be it for heat this summer!

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Shouldn't the title be changed to "European" heatwave thread

We will only get 1 day above 30 and then looks like that could be it for heat this summer!

As you will know from my posts on the UIA forum, I don't necessarily recognise this distinction.  

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As you will know from my posts on the UIA forum, I don't necessarily recognise this distinction.  

"Citizen of nowhere"

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After a couple of hours near 20*C with surprisingly little change, the temp rise is now chugging along here; into the 23s as of 12:30.

Newquay still looks to be the UK hotspot with 25*C reported at 12:20. It must feel pretty amazing there, even with the 15 mph wind (markedly reduced from 23 mph at Cardinham only around 15 miles to the east-northeast; some nice sheltering in evidence there).

Southampton's only reporting 21*C as of 12:20, so it's going to have to go some to hit the Met Office video forecast max; a 6*C climb during the next five hours. Slight veering of the wind from NE to ENE may help with this.

More striking is Bristol/Lulsgate reporting just 19*C, even though that was as of 11:50 rather than 12:20. An additional 9*C is needed... though it may be that the weather station is outside Bristol's urban heat island, in which case perhaps these reported temps are a degree or two on the low side for the city itself. 

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21.4C in Berko at the moment. Sunny but quite breezy.

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40c in Le Luc getting close to the French record for June

 

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More striking is Bristol/Lulsgate reporting just 19*C, even though that was as of 11:50 rather than 12:20. An additional 9*C is needed... though it may be that the weather station is outside Bristol's urban heat island, in which case perhaps these reported temps are a degree or two on the low side for the city itself. 

Lulsgate is 190masl, up in the Mendips and not really anywhere near Bristol's conurbation.

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Well it's starting to feel more like a warm spell, if not a heatwave. I had a breakfast meeting in Guildford which was very pleasant sitting outside on the terrace in the sunshine. Clear skies and warm sun here in London, although the breeze is keeping temps down to about 21-22C at the moment.

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"Citizen of nowhere"

The great thing about nowhere is that it is guaranteed to have better weather than this cloudy, blighted Isle. (Although it’s rather nice today with the North Sea AC switched on).

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(Although it’s rather nice today with the North Sea AC switched on).

Did you pay my royalties for the term? 

Now 39C in Clermont Ferrand and a number of 38s. 39C in Bilbao too - i remember it getting 43C in Aug 2003 with a föhn.

Somewhere may squeeze a 40C today.

So this time yesterday (we’ll, half an hour later) this was the state of play: one 39C and several 38s. Today seems to be 1C ahead of yesterday at the same time. Could see a 42C happening, perhaps. 43C seems unlikely as does anything close to the all time record of 44.1C.

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