theweatheroutlook

Rob K
28 June 2019 10:31:42

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Bingo. The UK record thickness has gone - The Camborne ascent this morning has 578dam!

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2823&STNM=03808



(Worth noting that's even warmer than the models had been predicting.)


The 850 temperature was 24.8C, which is likely also to be a record.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2019&MONTH=06&FROM=2800&TO=2800&STNM=03808


 



 


Arpege T+1 chart this morning (and several other time stamps) has a 26C isotherm over Dartmoor.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 10:42:55
A few 39s in France now but it’s now fallen behind yesterday - we had a 40C at this time.

I think the 28C in Wales is real. 25C in Valley, and I suspect we have Snowdonia blocking the low level cool flow.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Sevendust
28 June 2019 10:44:19

Originally Posted by: TimS 

A few 39s in France now but it’s now fallen behind yesterday - we had a 40C at this time.

I think the 28C in Wales is real. 25C in Valley, and I suspect we have Snowdonia blocking the low level cool flow.


Yes I think a few Foehn effects will be set up so some big differences are possible

Rob K
28 June 2019 10:48:33

Originally Posted by: TimS 

A few 39s in France now but it’s now fallen behind yesterday - we had a 40C at this time.


Really? Checking the stats on WeatherOnline the highest at 11am BST yesterday was 37.4C. Today the highest are 2C above that (39.5C) on Meteociel, but for some reason WO still isn't giving the 11am figures yet.


 


On Weathercast the hottest I can find is Nimes Courbessac, which was 39.5C at noon local time. Yesterday it was "only" 36.4C at that time. 


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/7645.html


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 10:54:16
Oops, I was an hour out. 40C reached at 1pm French time, 12 BST yesterday.

Twitter saying we now have a 40.3C at Malaucene.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
28 June 2019 10:57:39
Yes I think many stations are a couple of degrees above yesterday. I think today was always meant to be the peak of the heat in France, I reckon 45C will be breached somewhere, maybe 46.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
28 June 2019 11:07:21


I think the all time France record will fall today.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 June 2019 11:10:54

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I've spent all week telling people Friday will bring record heat but only above their heads, to many bemused reactions! 


 


So... yesterday mostly maxed 2-3*C above the model numbers rather than the 4-6*C forecast in the Met Office video foreast.


What on Earth is going on here?


Something I noticed in that forecast was that the wind flow shown was more south than east, as if they're using the upper winds instead of surface. Surely it can't be that their using the wrong winds to decide on the maxes - that'd be ridiculous!


Embarrassingly, the BBC forecasts, using MeteoGroup data, have fared much better these past few days.


 


So what of today? We have a more easterly flow with a shorter sea fetch across SSTs that have warmed considerably in recent days:



...and locations that have seen since dawn or not long after are responding, with 10 am readings 1-2*C above those of yesterday.


So let's see if anywhere can get to at least within a degree of the magic 30 today.


 


p.s. We desperately need an auto-save of post content in this forum; I swear, there are few things more infuriating than losing 10 minutes of post material because of accidental tab closure while retrieving a website link!



Maybe, I actually found a chart from 1853 that showed 22C at 850hpa which is higher than anything else I've managed to find.


Honestly not sure what the quickest way is of finding the record uppers is. Writing a grads script to try and find the maxima in the NCEP record seems like more work than just going through the charts manually.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 11:18:32
41.5C now at Gallargues-les-montueux in Gard. Sun isn’t yet at its zenith either.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
28 June 2019 11:20:20

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I think the all time France record will fall today.


 



 


Yes, I think it is nailed on. A few stations already over 41C at 1pm local time, with another three or four hours of heating to go. Carpentras is at 40.7C, exactly 4C higher than yesterday at the same time.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
28 June 2019 11:22:08

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


 


Yes, I think it is nailed on. A few stations already over 41C at 1pm local time, with another three or four hours of heating to go. Carpentras is at 40.7C, exactly 4C higher than yesterday at the same time.



Many of the high res models are going for 46C!


France is really going to move up the Europe rankings if that happens. 13th place to 6th place!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 June 2019 11:35:19


Gignac has the momentum with it. 41.2C and no sign of slowing down.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 June 2019 11:37:36

Another strong candidate.



Carprentras. 40.7C, that's a gain of 4.2C in the last hour!


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 11:49:18
Meanwhile back in blighty, it's 29C in Caernafon (26C in Valley, 25C in Bournemouth and Exeter). 23C in North Uist. West is best today.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Global Warming
28 June 2019 12:00:28

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Meanwhile back in blighty, it's 29C in Caernafon (26C in Valley, 25C in Bournemouth and Exeter). 23C in North Uist. West is best today.


Sadly no official stations in the Caernafon area


Current hot spots:


Kinlochewe 26.6C


Porthmadog 26.1C


Achnagart 26.1C

Quantum
28 June 2019 12:03:26

Looks like Mona is probably going to take the crown from Caernafon which did get up to 29C earlier however Mona is on 27.5C and has momentum.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 12:07:13
What's the current highest temp of the year? Assuming we'll probably beat that today.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Global Warming
28 June 2019 12:08:09

Originally Posted by: TimS 

What's the current highest temp of the year? Assuming we'll probably beat that today.


28.8C at Weybourne on 2 June

Rob K
28 June 2019 12:14:56

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Another strong candidate.



Carprentras. 40.7C, that's a gain of 4.2C in the last hour!


 



Carpentras rocketing up, 43.9C at 1300BST, that is a whisker away from the all-time French record of 44.1C, and a rise of 7.4C in two hours!


 


The dewpoint has also dropped from 20.8C to 10.5C in an hour. Dodgy data or change in airmass?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 June 2019 12:17:29
And there it is, the all time record

https://twitter.com/gwoznica/status/1144577721592373249?s=21 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Users browsing this topic

Ads