Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Friday 8 Dec 2017:

Wednesday and Thursday will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers. The showers mainly affecting exposed northern and eastern parts, especially the North Sea coasts, but not exclusively. The showers will be heavy at times and turning wintry over higher ground. Windy, with gales down the east coast on Wednesday. Similar conditions look likely to persist into Friday and the weekend, with showers continuing to affect eastern parts, but drier with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. The showers may be wintry across all parts, but any snow accumulations most likely over higher ground, but perhaps to some lower levels in the north. Staying rather cold, with temperatures below the average into early December. However, there is a chance of less cold, cloudier conditions spreading southeastwards, with some rain at times.

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow moving weather patterns, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

Signs of cold hanging on a but longer perhaps?

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An upgrade on the long ranger there for sure

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm 

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Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Heavy rain during Monday morning clearing during the afternoon. Plenty of dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday but feeling cold in strong winds. Perhaps the odd thundery shower over Kent.

Updated: 01:42 on Sat 25 Nov 2017 GMT

A bit random 

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Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Heavy rain during Monday morning clearing during the afternoon. Plenty of dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday but feeling cold in strong winds. Perhaps the odd thundery shower over Kent.

Updated: 01:42 on Sat 25 Nov 2017 GMT

A bit random 

If only that said " Thundery Snow Showers " 

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 If only that said " Thundery Snow Showers " 

I'm sure they've made a mistake and the word 'snow' will be added to the next update. 

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The actual Met Office definitions are as follows:

Temperature Terms used to describe the temperature relative to that expected
for the time of year.
(Summer: April to September, Winter: October to March)

Warm Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Very Warm Temperatures 4 to 5 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Hot Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in Summer.
Rather Cool Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Cool Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Very Cool/Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Summer.
Exceptionally Mild Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in
Winter.
Very Mild Temperatures 4 to 5 C or more above seasonal average in Winter.
Mild Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Winter.
Rather Cold Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Cold Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Very Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Winter.

Retron thanks for supplying Met Office definitions.Presumably actual figures can be derived  from  DJF seasonal average.

 

The actual Met Office definitions are as follows:

Temperature Terms used to describe the temperature relative to that expected
for the time of year.
(Summer: April to September, Winter: October to March)

Warm Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Very Warm Temperatures 4 to 5 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Hot Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in Summer.
Rather Cool Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Cool Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Very Cool/Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Summer.
Exceptionally Mild Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in
Winter.
Very Mild Temperatures 4 to 5 C or more above seasonal average in Winter.
Mild Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Winter.
Rather Cold Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Cold Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Very Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Winter.

How much have seasonal averages changed over the last 50 years?

 

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How much have seasonal averages changed over the last 50 years?

 

I believe they’ve tightened, but in tandem with the ‘average’ moving from the Hadley series (long range) to a more defined range such as 50-91. Not sure though, but someone will no doubt confirm or otherwise.

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I believe they’ve tightened, but in tandem with the ‘average’ moving from the Hadley series (long range) to a more defined range such as 50-91. Not sure though, but someone will no doubt confirm or otherwise.

I would’ve thought they’d have left them as they were, that way it avoids confusion when adjustments are made to suit short term timescales?

I would’ve thought they’d have left them as they were, that way it avoids confusion when adjustments are made to suit short term timescales?

Indeed.

Changing averages lead to older persons viewing the MetO definitions as incompatible with their own life long understanding of what is 'cold' or 'warm' and this results in the MetO's reliability and reputation being diminished.

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Indeed.

Changing averages lead to older persons viewing the MetO definitions as incompatible with their own life long understanding of what is 'cold' or 'warm' and this results in the MetO's reliability and reputation being diminished.

👍🏻

Possibly getting confused with the CET mean monthlies and the long term averages. Basically I’m talking nonsense and best ignored 😉

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Looked at what I posted just now and on reflection it would have been better understood by putting it this way -

 

The changing averages and the changed method employed (Hadley 'long range' to a more defined….), lead to older persons viewing the MetO definitions as incompatible with their own life long understanding of what is 'cold' or 'warm' and this results in the MetO's reliability and reputation being diminished.

Not an attack on there MetO but just observation.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Saturday 9 Dec 2017:

As we end November and move into the start of December, conditions look set to remain fairly similar, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Cold, crisp sunshine will be prevalent throughout, but with showers for some; these mainly affecting exposed northern and eastern parts, especially the North Sea coasts, but not exclusively. The showers will be heavy at times and wintry too, with any snow accumulations most likely over higher ground, but perhaps to some lower levels at times in the north. Staying rather cold throughout, with overnight frosts and temperatures generally below the average. However, there is a chance of less cold, cloudier weather spreading southeastwards, with some rain at times, particularly later in the period, which would likely see temperatures recover closer to average.

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow-moving weather pattern, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry, mainly over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

They don't seem to have updated second half yet, still Saturday rather than Sunday. Wonder what this will show?
Martin

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Met office update


UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow moving weather patterns, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

Yes not updated 2nd part since yesterday! I wonder why!?

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Sunday 10 Dec 2017:

Friday is likely to begin cold with wintry showers, especially in the east, and some accumulations of snow are possible on hills. However, rain and less cold weather will probably arrive in the west later, or early on Saturday, before spreading southeast to most other parts through the day. It will be breezy with gales possible at first in the east. An east to west split is favoured on Sunday into early next week. Cold, frosty weather is expected in the east, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry, whilst slightly less cold conditions and some rain is expected in the west. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Monday 25 Dec 2017:

The first few days of this period are most likely to be dominated by a northerly airstream bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to the British Isles. The showers are likely to be wintry even to low levels, with some accumulations on hills, especially in the east and northeast. Temperatures are set to be rather cold or cold everywhere, with widespread overnight frosts. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of periods of mobility developing, with an associated increase in rainfall (especially across some western areas). This would encourage temperatures to recover closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Very good update for cold lovers from met office. Clearly using their definitions of cold or rather cold.
Martin

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Sunday 10 Dec 2017:

Friday is likely to begin cold with wintry showers, especially in the east, and some accumulations of snow are possible on hills. However, rain and less cold weather will probably arrive in the west later, or early on Saturday, before spreading southeast to most other parts through the day. It will be breezy with gales possible at first in the east. An east to west split is favoured on Sunday into early next week. Cold, frosty weather is expected in the east, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry, whilst slightly less cold conditions and some rain is expected in the west. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Monday 25 Dec 2017:

The first few days of this period are most likely to be dominated by a northerly airstream bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to the British Isles. The showers are likely to be wintry even to low levels, with some accumulations on hills, especially in the east and northeast. Temperatures are set to be rather cold or cold everywhere, with widespread overnight frosts. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of periods of mobility developing, with an associated increase in rainfall (especially across some western areas). This would encourage temperatures to recover closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

A significant update in favour of cold.  

The 6z GFS fails to get next weekends milder push to the east of the country. Met Office appear confident on this outcome. 

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