Just a question!? To anyone!? - seeing as it' been on the news a lot lately:

The imminent eruption of volcano in Bali - of Mt Agung !? If and when this will erupt will this not have an effect on our weather!? Esp with all the ash being pumped up 30,000 feet !? I was just thinking!? Usually after volcanic eruptions it can cause a cooling for weather, as it's harder for the sun to heat up the earth!? Or is Bali too far away from the UK for anything to happen!? -I remember Volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2010 (Around March or April) we even had Ash from it when we had a northerly.

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Something else i found and would like to share - sure you will find this informative:

http://www.markvoganweather.com/topics/uk-ireland/ 

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Just a question!? To anyone!? - seeing as it' been on the news a lot lately:

The imminent eruption of volcano in Bali - of Mt Agung !? If and when this will erupt will this not have an effect on our weather!? Esp with all the ash being pumped up 30,000 feet !? I was just thinking!? Usually after volcanic eruptions it can cause a cooling for weather, as it's harder for the sun to heat up the earth!? Or is Bali too far away from the UK for anything to happen!? -I remember Volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2010 (Around March or April) we even had Ash from it when we had a northerly.

Imminent eruption? It has been erupting for several days now! Any impact from sulfur dioxide emissions based on the current eruption is likely to be negligible. It could change a little if the eruption intensifies further. I think the large 1963 eruption at Agung depressed global temperatures by about 0.2°C for a year or so.

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netweather have issue there winter forecast https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

netweather have issue there winter forecast https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

 

Weather Online - week ahead outlook:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Next week starts rather cloudy, but dry with some rain or drizzle in the north and west. Meanwhile, the best of any brightness at first is likely in the southeast. The rain will slowly move southwards with colder, brighter and showery conditions returning across all areas. The colder and brighter conditions are likely to remain through the rest of next week with the chance of some heavy showers, some of which will fall as snow. For the remainder of this period a blocked pattern is likely to persist meaning it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and showers. These falling as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels.

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Mild options seem to be pushed further out which make a change. Last year cold was always in the distance!

That's a very good update for coldies. Can't really ask for much more at this time of year a decent start to winter.

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Next week starts rather cloudy, but dry with some rain or drizzle in the north and west. Meanwhile, the best of any brightness at first is likely in the southeast. The rain will slowly move southwards with colder, brighter and showery conditions returning across all areas. The colder and brighter conditions are likely to remain through the rest of next week with the chance of some heavy showers, some of which will fall as snow. For the remainder of this period a blocked pattern is likely to persist meaning it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and showers. These falling as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels.

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Definitely the most bullish Meto update for persistent colder than average weather for the time of year, that we have seen for years.

I just hope that if we do get a prolonged cold spell in December, that it can actually deliver proper Christmas weather at Christmas.

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">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Definitely the most bullish Meto update for persistent colder than average weather for the time of year, that we have seen for years.

I just hope that if we do get a prolonged cold spell in December, that it can actually deliver proper Christmas weather at Christmas.

I will drink to that.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of heavy rain will push southwards across the UK. For much of the south, ahead of the rain it will be dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Still lots of uncertainty going forward.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

 

The downgrade has begun 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

 

The downgrade has begun 

Why post something that is 3 posts above

Update to the longer range forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

 

The downgrade has begun 

Has it?

Key words for me reading that are 'uncertainty' and the fact any milder spells are likely to be short-lived.

Granted, for your location it isn't looking overly cold but then it never did.

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Why post something that is 3 posts above

Update to the longer range forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

That's an interesting update. Clearly there are some signals for blocking to the NW to persist for much of the time, and the suggestion of the likelihood of milder air winning out for all later in the month has been dampened down.

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Sounds more like a Scandi high setup being hinted at further down the line?

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Why post something that is 3 posts above

Update to the longer range forecast

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

The positives I have highlighted in bold.

 

 

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Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of locally heavy rain will push southwards across northern areas. Elsewhere it will be mostly dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

 

The downgrade has begun 

 

At least milder' looks short lived!? 

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What do you make of this!?



Gav - Can't wait to watch/read your Winter 2017/18 forecast - Given so much uncertainty and last years forecast - are you anxious about releasing this winter forecast!?

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