I know that they are as useful as a chocolate teapot when you are looking 6 days out but I've got my first snow symbol of the Autumn on the Met Office weather app for my location next Saturday - a 50% chance no less!
Happy days, Winter is coming

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Absolutely agree.

Given how ensembles can wildly swing from day to day, it would make perfect sense to 'blend' the longer term. I guess from a business point of view, it is better to cover more outcomes in a more general way or to gradually back away from a previously more assertive forecast rather than flip-flop all over the place. I wouldn't go along with WM's assertion of 'cheap' and instead would call it practical from a business standpoint. 

It seems rather vague, pointless not to mention confusing. I’m not saying anyone should nail their colours to the mast, but a percentage based update on scenarios would be more helpful than ‘maybe bit of this, maybe a bit of that’ in the same paragraph. I may as well be asking the little old lady next door who relies of what time the cat comes home to determine the upcoming weather. 

I think the problem with these mid range updates is the constant uncertainty expressed going forward, I think they’d be better off using percentages as a guidance rather than sounding like they’re rolling a dice, either that or just don’t bother forecasting beyond day 10.

That is the sensible and pragmatic way forward.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 I know its the end of FI but having tempted us with Greenland blocking GFS reverts to its other tease a Scandi HP V atlantic battle -and we know who wins that!

After the last 30 years, that would be a reasonable assessment of the probabilities - but can we presently be so confident - because to me, the synoptics of the last six months seem different, in that the jet stream over the North Atlantic, more often than not is taking the WNW to ESE route, rather than SW to NE route.

Is that important?

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The Beeb are really convinced of cold weather over England and Wales later in the week. Atlantic dominates away from Scotland and Ireland 

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I have been waiting for this one: - certainly promising for cold although not supported by the GFS - certainly no signs of anything direr end of this month and into Dec but they did stress a 'chance' of longer colder spells coming more frequent. If this is correct then this week (which was forecast to have cold weather a week ago by GFS etc) will turn out the be the mildest and wettest week for the next month. So time will tell.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

Monday 20 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Nov 2017 to Monday 4 Dec 2017:

Over next weekend, bright spells and showers are likely in the north and west. Showers could be wintry in the northern half of the UK and perhaps over higher ground in central parts of England and Wales. Central and southeastern parts may well stay dry. It will be windy, particularly in the far north where gales are likely. Temperatures will generally be rather cold, and early frost is likely, especially in the north. Showers or longer spells of rain look likely next week too, with dry brighter spells in-between. Showers could sometimes be wintry over hills in Scotland and Northern England, but they will mainly fall as rain. Drier and brighter weather is likely in the east and southeast of England. It will probably be windy, especially in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 19 Dec 2017:

During the first three weeks of December, confidence is low as to which types of weather will predominate. Periods of wet, mild and perhaps windy weather remain likely at times but there is a chance that more settled weather will prevail across all parts, bringing some dry and bright days, but cold and frosty nights. Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Not the best update it has to be said , but also shows the uncertainty

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Not the best update it has to be said , but also shows the uncertainty

Agree Marcus. That first 3 weeks of December sounds suspiciously zonal but I think it's not likely to pan out that way.

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Not the best update it has to be said , but also shows the uncertainty

 

And also goes against there other forecast that Tally posted. Bit odd. The mighty Mogreps must go mild?

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Not the best update it has to be said , but also shows the uncertainty

True, but it's not the worst update either Marcus. It is certainly a far cry from the kind of updates we were getting on a daily basis at this time in 2015.

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Nothing really provokes excitement or looks promising to me in the latest met long ranger. Utterly standard U.K. winter fayre.
The only grain of hope is that confidence is still very low, however this is s common reiteration this time of year.

Weather Online keeps things colder than average from this Friday onwards:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm 

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Nothing really provokes excitement or looks promising to me in the latest met long ranger. Utterly standard U.K. winter fayre. 
The only grain of hope is that confidence is still very low, however this is s common reiteration this time of year.

Well, the long term signal for changes of weather type to be slow at least indicates that we are not expecting an express train from Bermuda which so often tends to kick in at this time of year. So maybe this is grounds for some optimism?

Nothing really provokes excitement or looks promising to me in the latest met long ranger. Utterly standard U.K. winter fayre. 
The only grain of hope is that confidence is still very low, however this is s common reiteration this time of year.

Well, the long term signal for changes of weather type to be slow at least indicates that we are not expecting an express train from Bermuda which so often tends to kick in at this time of year. So maybe this is grounds for some optimism?

just another post to say 'told you to not get excited'

if you cannot be optimistic now then what ate you looking for cannot be cold

Uncle Albert ask Del or Rodney to help you with the charts, there is plenty to be optimistic about . And going on recent starts to Winter this mornings charts aren’t standard.

 

Luverly Jubberly 

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Uncle Albert’s comments are quoting White Meadow’s post at the top of the page.

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Apologies Uncle Albert ..posting from a phone isn’t easy 

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Uncle Albert ask Del or Rodney to help you with the charts, there is plenty to be optimistic about . And going on recent starts to Winter this mornings charts aren’t standard.

 

Luverly Jubberly 

To be fair Marcus, this is the Media thread and the Met Office long range forecast is just fairly standard stuff. I agree the current charts show some potential but that’s another matter. 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 5 Dec 2017:

Wintry showers are likely to become confined to northern and eastern areas on Sunday, still with the risk of hail, sleet and some snow to lower levels. Into Monday, a band of cloud and rain with some hill snow may move across western parts. Thereafter, western and southern areas are likely to see further bouts of rain at times, with the risk of some snow over mainly the higher ground. It will often be rather cold here, although the far southwest could become milder at times. Further north, it is more likely that the weather will remain cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Winds will often be strong with a risk of gales for some.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:

During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14