And all the members ‘punting’ on here are professional meteorologists are they?

Apart from a select few individuals who have a lot of experience and common sense I know whose forecasts I take notice of - and they aren’t ‘punts’ as you put it.

Beyond the 10 day timeframe the MetO forecasts are no better or worse than most, thats not bashing them but a reality of how little we can forecast with any accuracy beyond that timeframe.😉

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

States from 20th Nov - it's likely to stay cold with frost and easterly or north easterly winds" etc.

When shall i do a winter moaning thread!? Oh gosh too early. It's only November 16th.

Just such a shame to see a Negative NAO, a strengthening La Nina and Major Northern Blocking over Pole and Greenland but yet still not get any cold wintry weather. That being said it is November. But still!?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

States from 20th Nov - it's likely to stay cold with frost and easterly or north easterly winds" etc.

When shall i do a winter moaning thread!? Oh gosh too early. It's only November 16th.

Just such a shame to see a Negative NAO, a strengthening La Nina and Major Northern Blocking over Pole and Greenland but yet still not get any cold wintry weather. That being said it is November. But still!?

😂😂😂😂 Give it until mid December at least tally, then when we're staring down the abyss at a big Euro slug high and a monster PV anchored over its favourite hang out we won’t need  a moaning thread, a winters over thread will be gathering momentum. 😁

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

States from 20th Nov - it's likely to stay cold with frost and easterly or north easterly winds" etc.

When shall i do a winter moaning thread!? Oh gosh too early. It's only November 16th.

Just such a shame to see a Negative NAO, a strengthening La Nina and Major Northern Blocking over Pole and Greenland but yet still not get any cold wintry weather. That being said it is November. But still!?

Remember the old saying: "Good things come to those who wait".

At least that's the theory!

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Remember the old saying: "Good things come to those who wait".

At least that's the theory!

I have been waiting for seven years,getting fed up of keep on waiting

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Nov 2017 to Friday 1 Dec 2017:

The north may start cold and dry on Wednesday, but outbreaks of rain will spread north to affect all parts, giving snow over high ground of Scotland. Becoming windy generally, with gales in places. For the end of the next week into the following weekend unsettled condition will probably dominate, giving wet and windy conditions at times, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures mainly above average. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter but cold at times. These colder conditions might extend south across the UK at times giving wintry showers. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December.

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:

The weather at the start of December looks likely to be in a slow moving pattern, with a few days of drier and brighter conditions likely, although confidence is low at this stage. Thereafter it looks as though a more mobile weather pattern will become established, with some cloudy, wet and windy interludes as frontal systems move across the UK. Temperatures in this period are likely to start off below normal, but with some milder periods developing later on.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Sounds like the MetO believe next week's developments are akin to finding a fly in the soup rather than discovering all the ingredients for starter and main course were off.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Nov 2017 to Friday 1 Dec 2017:

The north may start cold and dry on Wednesday, but outbreaks of rain will spread north to affect all parts, giving snow over high ground of Scotland. Becoming windy generally, with gales in places. For the end of the next week into the following weekend unsettled condition will probably dominate, giving wet and windy conditions at times, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures mainly above average. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter but cold at times. These colder conditions might extend south across the UK at times giving wintry showers. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December.

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:

The weather at the start of December looks likely to be in a slow moving pattern, with a few days of drier and brighter conditions likely, although confidence is low at this stage. Thereafter it looks as though a more mobile weather pattern will become established, with some cloudy, wet and windy interludes as frontal systems move across the UK. Temperatures in this period are likely to start off below normal, but with some milder periods developing later on.

Updated: 15:12 on Fri 17 Nov 2017 GMT

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I am keen to know why they are still forecasting end of Nov to be colder than average!? - All models or most point towards a wet end to November and relatively mild!?

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Nov 2017 to Friday 1 Dec 2017:

The north may start cold and dry on Wednesday, but outbreaks of rain will spread north to affect all parts, giving snow over high ground of Scotland. Becoming windy generally, with gales in places. For the end of the next week into the following weekend unsettled condition will probably dominate, giving wet and windy conditions at times, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures mainly above average. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter but cold at times. These colder conditions might extend south across the UK at times giving wintry showers. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December.

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:

The weather at the start of December looks likely to be in a slow moving pattern, with a few days of drier and brighter conditions likely, although confidence is low at this stage. Thereafter it looks as though a more mobile weather pattern will become established, with some cloudy, wet and windy interludes as frontal systems move across the UK. Temperatures in this period are likely to start off below normal, but with some milder periods developing later on.

Updated: 15:12 on Fri 17 Nov 2017 GMT

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I am keen to know why they are still forecasting end of Nov to be colder than average!? - All models or most point towards a wet end to November and relatively mild!?

 

yes embarassement is an understatement...the forecasts are pointless, everchanging (but at least a day behind everyone else) and often result in polar opposites, but keeps the hens in business as they often end up with egg on their faces. 

 

At at least we know the elements beyond a few days are no more than an indication...this stuff gets interpreted as a given, by the media and some of the public too. 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Nov 2017 to Saturday 2 Dec 2017:

Thursday will probably be wet and windy for most, with heavy rain, gales and hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. On Friday and over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some drier, brighter, or perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally but cold at times. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December, though this could be interrupted by a few showers.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:

A few days of cold, drier and brighter weather is the most likely scenario at the beginning of December, although confidence is low at this stage and there could well be showers around too. Changes in the weather will tend to be rather slow but it looks as though the second and third weeks of December are more likely to include cloudy, wet and windy interludes with milder temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

 

 

yes embarassement is an understatement...the forecasts are pointless, everchanging (but at least a day behind everyone else) and often result in polar opposites, but keeps the hens in business as they often end up with egg on their faces. 

 

At at least we know the elements beyond a few days are no more than an indication...this stuff gets interpreted as a given, by the media and some of the public too. 

It’s the usual gradual climb-down tactic we see every year, allegedly to save face without seemingly sudden u-turns. Pretty cheap.

This time last year was a classic example... Perhaps they’d be better off only forecasting up to 10 days between December- February as they consistently seem to struggle with this period further ahead.

Strangely it seems to have flipped back to a colder picture rather than being a "gradual climbdown" though.

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The moderation continues:

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:
A few days of cold, drier and brighter weather is the most likely scenario at the beginning of December, although confidence is low at this stage and there could well be showers around too. Changes in the weather will tend to be rather slow but it looks as though the second and third weeks of December are more likely to include cloudy, wet and windy interludes with milder temperatures.

Updated: 01:35 on Sun 19 Nov 2017 GM

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Nov 2017 to Sunday 3 Dec 2017:

Friday will probably be wet and windy for many, with heavy rain pushing across most parts, perhaps giving some hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. Over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some brief spells of drier, brighter, and perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally, but cold at times with some wintry showers over higher ground. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions will persist, though may be interspersed with some drier, brighter and colder interludes.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Monday 18 Dec 2017:

There will be a mixture of bright, cold spells and wet, milder interludes to begin the new month. Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow. Looking ahead into the rest of December, some periods of wet and perhaps windy weather remain likely at times but there is a small chance that more settled weather will prevail across all parts, bringing some dry and bright days, but cold and frosty nights. However, confidence is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Clearly confidence is about as low as it can be, as we approach the early part of December

It’s the usual gradual climb-down tactic we see every year, allegedly to save face without seemingly sudden u-turns. Pretty cheap.

I was told by a forecaster at a private agency (in private so no names) that it is important to "blend" updates for clients to ensure some form of continuity rather than wild gyrations. I will emphasise that his comments related to the outfit he worked for and NOT the Met Office. However the updates may suggest they follow a similar process. 

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I was told by a forecaster at a private agency (in private so no names) that it is important to "blend" updates for clients to ensure some form of continuity rather than wild gyrations. I will emphasise that his comments related to the outfit he worked for and NOT the Met Office. However the updates may suggest they follow a similar process. 

I think the problem with these mid range updates is the constant uncertainty expressed going forward, I think they’d be better off using percentages as a guidance rather than sounding like they’re rolling a dice, either that or just don’t bother forecasting beyond day 10.

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Nov 2017 to Sunday 3 Dec 2017:

Friday will probably be wet and windy for many, with heavy rain pushing across most parts, perhaps giving some hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. Over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some brief spells of drier, brighter, and perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally, but cold at times with some wintry showers over higher ground. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions will persist, though may be interspersed with some drier, brighter and colder interludes.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Monday 18 Dec 2017:

There will be a mixture of bright, cold spells and wet, milder interludes to begin the new month. Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow. Looking ahead into the rest of December, some periods of wet and perhaps windy weather remain likely at times but there is a small chance that more settled weather will prevail across all parts, bringing some dry and bright days, but cold and frosty nights. However, confidence is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This is the clause that brings eternal hope. Almost not needed after the catch-all - the mixture. Sure to be 50% right even if there is no mixture.

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I was told by a forecaster at a private agency (in private so no names) that it is important to "blend" updates for clients to ensure some form of continuity rather than wild gyrations. I will emphasise that his comments related to the outfit he worked for and NOT the Met Office. However the updates may suggest they follow a similar process. 

Absolutely agree.

Given how ensembles can wildly swing from day to day, it would make perfect sense to 'blend' the longer term. I guess from a business point of view, it is better to cover more outcomes in a more general way or to gradually back away from a previously more assertive forecast rather than flip-flop all over the place. I wouldn't go along with WM's assertion of 'cheap' and instead would call it practical from a business standpoint. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 I know its the end of FI but having tempted us with Greenland blocking GFS reverts to its other tease a Scandi HP V atlantic battle -and we know who wins that!