Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 5 Dec 2017:

Wintry showers are likely to become confined to northern and eastern areas on Sunday, still with the risk of hail, sleet and some snow to lower levels. Into Monday, a band of cloud and rain with some hill snow may move across western parts. Thereafter, western and southern areas are likely to see further bouts of rain at times, with the risk of some snow over mainly the higher ground. It will often be rather cold here, although the far southwest could become milder at times. Further north, it is more likely that the weather will remain cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Winds will often be strong with a risk of gales for some.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Sounds like  a Chiltern snowfest.  

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Met Office warnings for snow on Thursday morning are out now. This is North of the central belt and away from coasts. This part of Scotland is doing ok for snow this November

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:
During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

Updated: 14:59 on Tue 21 Nov 2017 GMT

....
So mild, possibly cold, than possibly colder but with mild spells, then mild towards Christmas.

As good as saying ‘no idea really’ or ‘may as well go for the norm’ for the second half of next month.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:
During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

Updated: 14:59 on Tue 21 Nov 2017 GMT

....
So mild, possibly cold, than possibly colder but with mild spells, then mild towards Christmas.

As good as saying ‘no idea really’ or ‘may as well go for the norm’ for the second half of next month.

Whoever writes these forecasts seriously needs to find another line of work.

Whoever writes these forecasts seriously needs to find another line of work.

Your idea of the percentage based probabilities was brilliant. Trouble is, they prefer to write in the most non-comittal, evasive way possible to avoid any misgivings or bad press later. Ironically this approach continuously paints a picture of poor service. 

Your idea of the percentage based probabilities was brilliant. Trouble is, they prefer to write in the most non-comittal, evasive way possible to avoid any misgivings or bad press later. Ironically this approach continuously paints a picture of poor service. 

Indeed WM, it makes you wonder if anyone bothers to proofread these forecasts prior to release.

No 10 day BBC update yet? A bit late!

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Edit...came out at 2215. Nick Miller got the 'S' word out first 😂

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A decent update from the Met I'd say

 

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 6 Dec 2017:

A cold and frosty start for eastern areas on Monday, but rain, which will already be across western parts, should move southeast through the day. Some hill snow likely, as the rain clears to squally showers, these turning wintry over the hills. Further showers or longer spells of rain, with some hill snow likely on Tuesday. By midweek, some organised rain is likely in the north and southwest at first, with possibly some hill snow. Elsewhere, a continuing mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, with some snow reaching lower levels later. A slow moving pattern continues to be the more likely scenario into early December, with periods of rain, especially in the west, although these may be further south at times. Temperatures probably near to or slightly below the average.

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Dec 2017 to Thursday 21 Dec 2017:

During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder

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ITV forecast this evening (London Region) said turning chillier at the weekend with temperatures closer to normal for time of year. Think he should have emphasized that "chillier" would feel pretty cold considering an 8C drop from preceding three days.

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A decent update from the Met I'd say

 

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 6 Dec 2017:

A cold and frosty start for eastern areas on Monday, but rain, which will already be across western parts, should move southeast through the day. Some hill snow likely, as the rain clears to squally showers, these turning wintry over the hills. Further showers or longer spells of rain, with some hill snow likely on Tuesday. By midweek, some organised rain is likely in the north and southwest at first, with possibly some hill snow. Elsewhere, a continuing mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, with some snow reaching lower levels later. A slow moving pattern continues to be the more likely scenario into early December, with periods of rain, especially in the west, although these may be further south at times. Temperatures probably near to or slightly below the average.

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Dec 2017 to Thursday 21 Dec 2017:

During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder

So looking at the wider picture in the run up to Xmas week the Met Office said, I quote 'could and May' - become more generally unsettled and milder later in the month' - the word May' but that isn't a guarantee that it will and also milder could mean daytime temps of say  +7c of +8c instead of +4c or +5c, I guess 'milder' doesn't always necessarily mean above average temperatures!?

 

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"More "'seasonal weather than recent December's' - that's better but still virtually saying that everything will happen rain, snow, wind, frost and fog etc. - according to Weather Online monthly outlook:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm 

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So looking at the wider picture in the run up to Xmas week the Met Office said, I quote 'could and May' - become more generally unsettled and milder later in the month' - the word May' but that isn't a guarantee that it will and also milder could mean daytime temps of say  +7c of +8c instead of +4c or +5c, I guess 'milder' doesn't always necessarily mean above average temperatures!?

 

The weather will turn a little milder after a colder spell or cold snap - that's inevitable really. Stating the obvious.

BBC Weather for week ahead below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42090124

 

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Weather ONline week ahead:

I remember northerlie's esp in 90's and 00's when daytime maxes never reached above 0c. If only it could get colder? No doubt the temps will drop in any showers though.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm 

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I remember Christmas Day 1995 and Xmas Day 2001 and 2004:



December 2010 had a cold Xmas day but there was already lying snow since 2010 no snow has fallen on Xmas day.

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I remember Christmas Day 1995 and Xmas Day 2001 and 2004:

https://youtu.be/RyGB3y5cneE

December 2010 had a cold Xmas day but there was already lying snow since 2010 no snow has fallen on Xmas day.

 

Northerly winds were more potent back in 90's? - Yet it is still only November but still - been a while since we saw this sort of thing:

https://youtu.be/s_CWgmvI6Fg

 

 

 

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Nov 2017 to Thursday 7 Dec 2017:

A cold and frosty start for both Tuesday and Wednesday, then a mixture of sunshine and showers, these wintry at times with snow over northern hills, and with possibly spells of more persistent rain for some eastern areas. It will be windy too with a risk of gales in the north and east, and this will make it feel particularly cold. These cold and showery conditions look likely to continue into the weekend, with the showers most frequent and wintry in the north and east, with drier, sunnier weather elsewhere. Thereafter slow moving weather patterns continue to be the more likely scenario into early December, with some periods of rain at times, especially in the west, and with temperatures probably near to or slightly below the average.

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Dec 2017 to Friday 22 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, weather patterns are likely to continue to be fairly slow moving and this brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. It is probable that there will be some spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Weather ONline week ahead:

I remember northerlie's esp in 90's and 00's when daytime maxes never reached above 0c. If only it could get colder? No doubt the temps will drop in any showers though.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

Cold spells are so rare that the description of what temperature defines cold is changing.This morning Helin Willets called 7 to 9 degrees c as cold.

My defintions for winter daytime temps are

Very mild  >  12C

Mild         10- 12C

Rather mild  8-10c

Rather cold  5-8C

Cold           0-5c

Very  cold    <0C

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Friday 8 Dec 2017:

Wednesday and Thursday will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers. The showers mainly affecting exposed northern and eastern parts, especially the North Sea coasts, but not exclusively. The showers will be heavy at times and turning wintry over higher ground. Windy, with gales down the east coast on Wednesday. Similar conditions look likely to persist into Friday and the weekend, with showers continuing to affect eastern parts, but drier with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. The showers may be wintry across all parts, but any snow accumulations most likely over higher ground, but perhaps to some lower levels in the north. Staying rather cold, with temperatures below the average into early December. However, there is a chance of less cold, cloudier conditions spreading southeastwards, with some rain at times.

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow moving weather patterns, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14 

Cold spells are so rare that the description of what temperature defines cold is changing.This morning Helin Willets called 7 to 9 degrees c as cold.

My defintions for winter daytime temps are

Very mild  >  12C

Mild         10- 12C

Rather mild  8-10c

Rather cold  5-8C

Cold           0-5c

Very  cold    <0C

The actual Met Office definitions are as follows:

Temperature Terms used to describe the temperature relative to that expected
for the time of year.
(Summer: April to September, Winter: October to March)

Warm Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Very Warm Temperatures 4 to 5 C above seasonal average in Summer.
Hot Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in Summer.
Rather Cool Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Cool Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Summer.
Very Cool/Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Summer.
Exceptionally Mild Temperatures 6 C or more above seasonal average in
Winter.
Very Mild Temperatures 4 to 5 C or more above seasonal average in Winter.
Mild Temperatures 2 to 3 C above seasonal average in Winter.
Rather Cold Temperatures 2 to 3 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Cold Temperatures 4 to 5 C below seasonal average in Winter.
Very Cold Temperatures 6 C or more below seasonal average in Winter.

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